Gonna answer both in one post .... and it boils down to executing an NBA offense. Remember how discombobulated this offense was when Fred was out? The team was terrible over that stretch and none of Reed, Amen or Jalen was able to fill that void. The most basic concept and the most prolific one is the pick and roll. Reed as the pick and roll ball handler was in the 18th percentile at 0.7 ppp Amen as the pick and roll ball handler was in the 46th percentile at 0.84 ppp Then there's isolation - Reed in isolation 59th percentile with 0.92ppp Amen in isolation 41st percentile 0.85ppp And finally transition: Reed 9th percentile 0.87ppp Amen 58th percentile 1.16 ppp The counting stats say Amen's great .... but the per possession stats tell us what he's great at which is for the most part playing off the ball. Reed's stats look more like that of a 2 guard than a point .... Maybe one or both of them take a huge leap but I wouldn't want to bed the season on it. As for FVV - they simply can't pick up that option without triggering the luxury tax for the year. I did the numbers in another thread based off of Adams getting the $8.3m BAE or less - he actually got ~$6m more in year one of his contract. At the BAE figure they were only able to offer FVV $28m or so without going over the luxury tax line (and filling the two roster spots held by Tate & Jeff Green with minimum contracts) meaning they could only offer FVV $22m and stay under the tax after Adams extension. That does take into account the #10 picks $6,016,080 for year 1. I don't know if the tax is the line in the sand or not but I'm almost certain they don't want to be over the 1A and that's only ~$8m more than the tax. Picking up that option or otherwise going into the tax starts the repeater clock for the team when they are not really contenders - starting that clock now just increases the cost later when they give other players extensions. It's difficult for me to see Stone doing that with the roster as currently constructed. I'm beginning to wonder if FVV is back next season - he's not getting more than MLE money on the open market, his only other options are take what the Rockets offer (likely below the tax line), they are the only team that can pay him aside from Brooklyn (can't see them giving him big money) or a sign and trade for a bigger number - or picking up the option and trading him.
With Adams signed to $14M next season, it will be tough to pick up FVV's option and trade him. The incoming salary would likely exceed the 1st apron next season such that any trade would have to meet 1st apron rules. I don't think the Giannis situation is known prior to the deadline to exercise the option. I just don't think the Suns would want their trade partner sending exactly the amount to them that they send out or have to pay another team for taking salary. The Rockets are not going into next season without a starting PG. I have high hopes that Reed takes the spot sometime in the next 2 seasons, but no reason not to have an option starting this coming season. Other than Jerome, not really another option at PG, and even then I'd expect the Rockets to try to keep FVV. It would likely require Brooks or Green being moved.
This is correct re: the salary implications. Front-loading Steven Adams contract signalled that the FO knows FVV is not getting traded, and is going to re-sign at a first year salary number <$30M. Otherwise the frontloading would be pushing more money into this year, a year in which we would be in the tax if FVV’s salary slot was taken up by a >$30M number. That’s not going to happen, obviously. You don’t frontload money to pay tax on it.
