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[Stein] Thomas Robinson could be traded to either Chicago or Cleveland

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by aaly1130, Jun 26, 2013.

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Sanity2disChaos Member

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Sanity2disChaos said: ↑

I agree
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But not an all-star. Not yet at least. His skill set does remind you a little like j.smoove game.you would have to be dumb and blind not to see that. He can shoot a little better than smoove also.

#181 Sanity2disChaos, Jun 26, 2013

Angkor Wat Member

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Anyone watching this nbatv mock draft lol? Cavs are up, Giannis is still available. We mock get Giannis!!

#182 Angkor Wat, Jun 26, 2013
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Angkor Wat said: ↑

Anyone watching this nbatv mock draft lol? Cavs are up, Giannis is still available. We mock get Giannis!!
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So YOU'RE the other person watching this trash!

#183 Artie_Fufkin, Jun 26, 2013

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http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/228384/False-Positives-In-Scouting-For-The-NBA-Draft

One year after being a Top-5 pick, Thomas Robinson may soon be headed to his third NBA team. It’s a dramatic fall for one of the most decorated college players in recent memory. In his junior season, Robinson averaged 18 points and 12 rebounds a game on 51 percent shooting. He was the Big 12 Player of the Year and a consensus first-team All-American. While he had a very impressive statistical profile, it could only tell us so much about his ability to play in the NBA.

Advanced statistics have become increasingly popular at every level of basketball, but there are important differences in the data sets from the NBA and NCAA. There are more than 10 times as many Division I programs as there are NBA teams, so the talent is more spread out. The problem is even more acute with big men, since there are so few NBA-caliber ones in college. Robinson’s collegiate numbers against substandard competition were a classic example of a “false positive”.

In his first two years at Kansas, Robinson backed up Cole Aldrich, Marcus Morris and Markieff Morris, all of whom were Top-15 picks. As a result, he didn’t start until his junior season, following the departure of the Morris Twins. The Jayhawks played one of the top schedules in the country that season, finishing with a 32-7 record and a berth in the national championship game. Yet, despite playing in a number of high-level games, Robinson saw very few NBA-caliber big men.

Kansas faced five traditional powers in non-conference play -- Georgetown, UCLA, Kentucky, Duke and Ohio State. Of those, only Kentucky had an NBA-caliber front-line. Neither Georgetown nor UCLA had even one draft-worthy big man. Duke had Mason Plumlee, but he had to split his time against Robinson and Jeff Withey, a potential first-round pick this year. Ohio State had Jared Sullinger, but he didn’t play because of back spasms.

In conference play, Robinson was a man among boys. Missouri, the second best team in the conference, didn’t have a scholarship player above 6’9. Baylor had the horses to run with Kansas, but Scott Drew kept them in a bizarre 1-3-1 zone that essentially negated their talent. Iowa State had Royce White and that was it. The other six teams in the conference didn’t have anyone who could go toe-to-toe with Robinson, Withey and the Jayhawks front-line.

When it came to projecting Robinson to the NBA, most of his collegiate career was essentially useless. He went for 25 and 13 and 28 and 12 in two games against Missouri, but the Tigers were playing a four-out system with a 6’8 center (Ricardo Ratliffe) and a 6’6 shooting guard (Kim English) upfront. Needless to say, Robinson didn’t have many 6’6 players defending him as a rookie. There wasn’t much you could discern from his ability to dominate undersized front-lines at Kansas.

At the next level, Robinson goes up against two NBA-caliber big men protecting the paint almost every single night. That happened to him four times as a junior -- two games against Kentucky, including the NCAA title game, as well as Tourney games against UNC and NC State. In those games, Robinson averaged 16 points on 39 percent shooting. He held his own on the glass, averaging 13 rebounds, but he could not efficiently create his own shot against elite competition.

Coming into the draft, I had Robinson rated as the No. 6 power forward, in large part due to his struggles against the very best. Against Kentucky, Robinson (6’9 245) couldn’t overwhelm Terrence Jones (6’9 250) or Anthony Davis (6’11 220). They stayed in front of him and forced him to shoot over the top. He didn’t have a counter. Two games is a small sample size, but it was two games against the best defense he faced. Those games had more predictive value than the rest of his season.

While he has been a victim of circumstance with the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets, the bigger problem has been the holes in his game exposed by Jones and Davis. Robinson can’t shoot, pass or dribble and he doesn’t have a post game, making it virtually impossible for him to create his own shot in the NBA. Like most rookie big men, he has little idea of how to play acceptable defense. Against players with his size and athleticism, the only way he can impact the game is as a rebounder.

That didn’t matter against the 6’11 stiffs and 6’8 centers Robinson faced in college, which is what makes evaluating big men so difficult. Even players in major conferences can go the entire season without facing more than a handful of NBA-caliber big men. There’s a reason front offices scour the globe looking for centers. It’s almost impossible to find a 6’9+ athlete with the skill to play basketball at the highest level. The taller you go, the harder to find.

There aren’t many dominant big men anymore, but the NBA paint is still the domain of giants. Last season, a West Coast road trip meant Marcin Gortat (6’11 240), Dwight Howard (6’11 265), DeAndre Jordan (6’11 265), DeMarcus Cousins (6’11 270) and Andrew Bogut (7’0 260). A trip to the Northeast meant Kevin Garnett (6’11 250), Brook Lopez (7’0 265), Jonas Valanciunas (6’11 230), Tyson Chandler (7’1 240) and Spencer Hawes (7’1 245). Put these guys in the Middle Ages and they could take over kingdoms.

On a nightly basis, the guy protecting the rim in the NBA is about 6’11 250 with a 7’2 wingspan. There are a few breaks in the schedule, but unless you’re Andre Drummond, you can’t expect to face guys who are smaller and less athletic than you very often. There’s nothing that can prepare a young big man for it. Before they get to the NBA, most spend their entire careers towering over the competition. That’s why, when you evaluate big men prospects, the most important games are their ones against each other.

In the NBA, Robinson is only playing against the best. It’s far too early to write him off, but his lack of skill probably means that stardom isn’t in the cards. For all they told us, his college stats might as well have been his high school ones. Even the most advanced statistics depend on the underlying data and the data coming out of college is fairly flawed. There are Type I errors (false positives) every year. There are Type II errors (false negatives) as well, but that’s a story for another day.
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#184 jsmee2000, Jun 26, 2013
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jsmee2000 Member

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Spoke with NBA scout that said whomever gets TRob is getting a player. Will take time to develop but great upside. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23rockets&src=hash">#rockets</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23abc13&src=hash">#abc13</a></p>— David Nuno (@DavidNunoABC13) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidNunoABC13/statuses/350068944058580993">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

#185 jsmee2000, Jun 26, 2013
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Portland may value Robinson as better value than pick 19, as it's not just Chicago looking at Aldridge...

Or even Cavs looking at moving Thompson, and keeping Rob.

#186 Aleron, Jun 26, 2013
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Give me back 2Pat!

-Carl

#187 YallMean, Jun 26, 2013

jump shooter Member

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Old Man Rock said: ↑

Why trade now when someone may likely up the ante tomorrow night.
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Bingo you win. No need to show part of your hand this early unless its a bluff. Morey is just so damn unpredictable during the draft.

#188 jump shooter, Jun 26, 2013
deshen Member

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no kidding, trade a #5 to #19?

#189 deshen, Jun 26, 2013
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jsmee2000 said: ↑

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Spoke with NBA scout that said whomever gets TRob is getting a player. Will take time to develop but great upside. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23rockets&src=hash">#rockets</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23abc13&src=hash">#abc13</a></p>— David Nuno (@DavidNunoABC13) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidNunoABC13/statuses/350068944058580993">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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See, THIS is what I want to hear. At least until after we trade him...

#190 treeman, Jun 26, 2013
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Looking forward to everything that will be happening tomorrow!

#191 LCAhmed, Jun 26, 2013
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Cheers guys for an exciting day tomorrow. I feel sorry for my coworkers and customers because I will be spending all day on here tomorrow.

#192 Sadat X, Jun 26, 2013
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jsmee2000 said: ↑

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Spoke with NBA scout that said whomever gets TRob is getting a player. Will take time to develop but great upside. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23rockets&src=hash">#rockets</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23abc13&src=hash">#abc13</a></p>— David Nuno (@DavidNunoABC13) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidNunoABC13/statuses/350068944058580993">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I wonder if this is the same scout that said T-Rob is better than the No.1 pick in this years draft.

T-Rob > Noels ?

Not so sure about that but certainly T-Rob would be top 5 pick again because this year's draft is much weaker than last year.

#193 Fair Dinkum, Jun 26, 2013

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Fair Dinkum said: ↑

I wonder if this is the same scout that said T-Rob is better than the No.1 pick in this years draft.

T-Rob > Noels ?

Not so sure about that but certainly T-Rob would be top 5 pick again because this year's draft is much weaker than last year.
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You know how I know this is a bad draft? There is not one player in this draft that I would bet a significant amount is going to be better than Thomas Robinson. Are there any I think will be? Sure, lots. But are there any that I am absolutely certain are going to be better than TRob? Asbofreakinglutely not.

That is just sad. Not a diss to TRob, I think he can be a solid NBA player if he gets in the right situation -- but unfortunately I can't say the same for a huge percentage of the guys that are going to be taken in the first round tomorrow. I mean, I am sure there are some gems in there, and there are some guys I personally like, but who in here would you put money on?

#194 HamJam, Jun 26, 2013
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Bulls or Spurs have improved offer for Rockets F Thomas Robinson, I'm told. Cavs may be left out at the end.</p>— Sam Amico (@SamAmicoFSO) <a href="https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/statuses/350095238955663360">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
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#195 jacoby, Jun 26, 2013
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jsmee2000 said: ↑

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Spoke with NBA scout that said whomever gets TRob is getting a player. Will take time to develop but great upside. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23rockets&src=hash">#rockets</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23abc13&src=hash">#abc13</a></p>— David Nuno (@DavidNunoABC13) <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidNunoABC13/statuses/350068944058580993">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Why does hateful **** towards the rockets get retweeted more than things that favor the rockets?

After the rockets trade trob, i will create a thread basically calling out patrick patterson aka carl herrera.

#196 BEAT LA, Jun 26, 2013
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jacoby said: ↑

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Bulls or Spurs have improved offer for Rockets F Thomas Robinson, I'm told. Cavs may be left out at the end.</p>— Sam Amico (@SamAmicoFSO) <a href="https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/statuses/350095238955663360">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I wonder how this went down. "Sam, a defensive team with black as one of their team colors has improved its offer for Thomas Robinson."

#197 clutch citizen, Jun 26, 2013

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jacoby said: ↑

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Bulls or Spurs have improved offer for Rockets F Thomas Robinson, I'm told. Cavs may be left out at the end.</p>— Sam Amico (@SamAmicoFSO) <a href="https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/statuses/350095238955663360">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Hahaha. Morey milking this for all it's worth. He's the master.

Sadly I think he's gonna prove the haters wrong once he gets a real opportunity with a new team.

#198 Aruba77, Jun 26, 2013

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Aruba77 said: ↑

Hahaha. Morey milking this for all it's worth. He's the master.

Sadly I think he's gonna prove the haters wrong once he gets a real opportunity with a new team.
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#199 Rockets0515, Jun 26, 2013

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Possibility Cavs end up keeping all four picks and Thunder stay at 12. But it's definitely not for lack of trying on either's behalf.</p>— Sam Amico (@SamAmicoFSO) <a href="https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/statuses/350100524420444160">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
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#200 BarreKellyJr, Jun 26, 2013

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