With the Texans season in the state that it’s in there’s a lot of questions to be asked and answered. Who’s a free agent, who can we cut, who’s contract do we have to worry about next, and with the current trend what starter gets hurt next? Well start with the top of it who’s up for renewal. Free Agents -Should be back Ryan Harris, Earl Mitchell, Garrett Graham, Darryl Sharpton, Bryan Braman (RFA), Terrell McClain (RFA) -Might be back Wade Smith, Andrew Gardner, Joe Mays, Ben Tate, Lestar Jean (RFA), Greg Jones, Antonio Smith -See ya Andrew Gardner, Deji Karim, Elbert Mack, Jeff Tarpinian, Josh Victorian Next up we got the collateral damage of bad contract extensions, injuries, and signing old people. Who’s getting/might be cut? -Matt Schaub (3.5 M cap hit next 3 years) -Arian Foster (2.5M cap hit next 3 years) -Owen Daniels (0 cap hit, 1 year left 6.25 M) -Ed Reed (.67 M cap hit next two years, 11.6/2 years left) -Jonathon Joseph (0 cap hit, 23.5/2 years left on contract) -Danieal Manning (1.5 M cap hit next year, 6 M 1 year left) -T.J. Yates (0 cap hit, .691 M 1 year left) I know it wouldn’t be popular getting rid of Manning/Daniels but with the way Swearinger/Keo are coming I think this make him expendable or at least willing to renegotiate his contract down. With OD same situation resign Graham and force him to take less money or hit the road, if wouldn’t have torn his acl in 2009 he would’ve been gone anyways. So for theoretically we cut all of these guys this would be the cap hit breakdowns below. 2014 2015 2016 $8.17 $6.67 $6 Also by making these moves it makes for a ton of cap space in the next three years after the cap penalties on these awesome contracts that we’ve put in place over past 2 years. 2014 2015 2016 $44.051 $37.91 $22.50 With that much extra money by clearing out 6 of 10 biggest contracts it would allow additional funds to help with the Kareem and JJ Watt extension (both are Free agents after the 2014/2015 season). Would anticipate locking Watt up this offseason but I guess that will depend on if Rick Smith is able to keep his job. With his contract thru 2016 and being Bob McNair’s son Godfather signs point towards another chance once the turmoil and fog of a disastrous 2013 season clears. Also, don’t be expecting any relief from the media/tv deals boosting the cap it’s anticpated to be minimum through the 2015 season (2-6%) per year. What about Case? No need to worry about your Houston hero at this point, Houston will have him essentially locked up thru 2016-2017 season. He’s a ERFA after next season so all they have to do is offer the minimum terms (similar to club option) and he stays and would be a RFA after 2015-2016 and wouldn’t expect someone giving up a first rounder to take him. (Hope I’m wrong though) Forgot about Dre? One thing that people are not really talking about is the fact of how much money the Texans still owe their beloved 80. Yes, odds are he ends up in the HOF and has a statue outside the stadium someday but going into next year we’ll have him during the peak years of 33-35 while paying 3 yr/42.5 M, with no more guaranteed money on his deal, wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort or renegotiation coming up in the next few years. For the following reasons, helping the team for one last attempt at a playoff run (hopefully goes better than Brady’s decision) and retiring a Texan. Kubes/Wade’s Last Stand? More and more it seems apparent that this could/will be the last of Kubiak in Houston at this pace. Currently on track for a 3rd-8th pick in next years draft and Kubiak’s worst year as the head coach in Houston (6-10 twice 2006 & 2010). With the offensive blocking scheme struggling and defense scheme no longer to force turnover or get pressure on the quarterback looks like it’s time for things to come to a end. 8 Total takeaways on the year thru 9 games with 3 yesterday vs AZ. Yes our defense is in first in total yards given up but sit at 28th in total points given up while in 2011 we were 4th and 2012 9th. To add fuel to the fire we currently sit 22nd in sacks and was 5th in 2012 & 6th in 2011. Also with it coming out this morning that the front office is pushing the blame onto the coaching staff (well deserved) don’t expect Rick Smith to be going to bat for Kubes & Wade. NOTE: Mario Williams has more sacks than our OLB’s in past two years combined. Who’s Next? If Uncle Bob grows a pair and actually lets his second son Kubes goes who’s going to get the job next? With the ongoing trend of trying to grab guys from the college ranks don’t be surprised to hear David Shaw (Stanford) or Sumlin’s name mentioned fairly soon (Sumlin & Rick Smith went to college together). This could be an exciting next two months with these things starting to surface but at the end of the day I don’t wanna be in Rick Smith’s shoes this offseason.
Texans have been exposed. They have more holes than Swiss Cheese, and I don't see them jumping back into contender status in just one offseason. I'm afraid that the next regime is going to have their work cut out for them.
Thanks, informative. Here is hoping we have a new coach, even if its a half measure and we keep smith around. I like the idea of getting a defensive coach (mike zimmer has been the guy thats most intriguing to me), drafting defense+oline, and trying to make a go of the baltimore/tampa bay model. May not work in todays nfl, but with AJ, foster and a revamped line and scheme we may be able to trot a better offense than either of thos 2 while still limiting opponents to 14 or 17. Alas, too many variables to see what the offseason might bring...
Reed, Joseph, Manning, Daniels, Schaub should all be cut. Resign Tate, Graham, Mitchell, Braman with those savings and set aside money for JJ. Pick up a RT, LG, RG, MLB, DE, S in the draft
Rebuild mode... Case is are starter going forward.That much is for sure. Sure he holds on the ball a little long so far, but he made Andre Johnson relevant again.
Cutting guys in this league generally isn't too hard to do. The bigger problem facing the Texans is that they have failed, in a big way, to offset losses with new pieces. You can't shed guys and then blow 7/9 draft choices and get away with it. And you can't expect rookies to step in and immediately replace strong starting vets, especially not on the O-Line or in the secondary. We've atrophied at too many positions, sometimes accompanied by a train of bad draft picks. Hopefully the problem is solved by wholesale liquidation of the front office, scouts, and coaching.
I miss Demeco Ryans... http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/20131114_Ryans_is_performing_like_a_Pro_Bowl_player_again.html I think losing him was hard for this team, bc this team needed a real vocal leader...and he was perfect. Happy to see him have success in Phili...
Thanks for the breakdown Drewd17! Question: where are you getting those cap #'s? My understanding is that the cap info is not public, hence it has always been difficult to know exactly how much the Texans are under or over the cap. That said, thanks again for bringing all that to light. I actually don't think Graham has done much to deserve good money at the TE position. he's a good complimentary TE, but not a starter (as he's proved since OD's been out). I don't think there's any way the Tate, Antonio Smith or Wade Smith are back. They will all cost too much money. The only way Tate is retained is if Foster is cut, and i just don't see that happening before they get a good look at Foster in camp. By that point, Tate will have signed with another team. I'm completely supportive of cutting Reed, Schaub, and Manning. Don't see the benefit of cutting JJo, OD if they count zero against the cap. Think we need to see how foster does in his recovery before we cut him. I'm all for rebuilding. i think we need to address secondary depth, ILB and OLB, the right side of our O-line, RB, and QB. It's gonna take two years to fill those holes. Also, keep in mind, much of the cap room we'd gain from letting FA's walk and cutting players will likely go to a JJ Watt contract extension this summer (likely to be the most ever for a defensive player)
The state of the Texans? End of an Era... Arrogance in practices/rigidity/personnel gambles seemingly coming to bite the team in the arse in every way possible... Fan disgruntled left with only teases of greatness. Things got to change because this culture has been exposed as one of failure and heaven help us if Keenum and AJ manage to break Andre's single season TD record in a handful of games... Kubiak, Rick Smith and Wade Phillips are good men but only one of them should possibly remain with the team going forward but it should probably be none.
Didn't that JUST happen two years ago after a team full of holes went 6-10? That being said, I like the Texans to have a turnaround in '14.
It's because of the profound advantage picking high in every round gives you. The NFL more than most sports is about coaching athletic players. As a GM it becomes pretty straightforward: draft athletic guys who don't have their heads up their asses. Rule out the headcases, the guys with red flags like run-ins with the law or strong signs that they will not fall in line with authority. Then choose the most athletic. Aside from QB, CB, and maybe WR with the "hands" attribution, it really doesn't help you very much to be a veteran as opposed to a rookie. So that being said, so long as your GM doesn't suck, and your team doesn't have a godawful QB who throws pick 6's game in and game out, you can easily reverse your entire franchise's fortunes in one offseason. In the cases of KC and SF, both teams were drafting athletic players high in the draft who were underperforming due to their coaches. Once those coaches got replaced by capable ones, you saw all this talent rise to the forefront. The Texans can be the same way with Watt, Cushing, Mercilus, Reed if you move him to ILB, and another good pass rusher taken early in this draft.
In the NFL, "rebuilding" doesn't mean overhauling the team roster. SF and KC kept most of their core pieces. Seattle too. No, rebuilding is about the replacement of one piece. The head coach. Come on Bob McNair. You know what to do, and it needs to happen right now in the postgame press conference. Monday at the latest.
Texans have had like 5 games where they lost by 5 or less points. What a difference it would be if they score 6 or more points in each of those games. I'm not sure if it's a meltdown, because they would be getting blown the **** out of the water if it was. The Texans are 9th in total offense and 1st in total defense coming in today's game! Honestly, I don't think ANYONE can explain what the hell is going on with the team. You can say it's the coaches, but I honestly don't think that's the problem. All I know is that the Texans can't continue forward with Schaub at the helm 'cause his days as the Texans starting QB after this season should be over.
