I will start with the premise that Keuchel, McCullers and Musgrove are the only ones who should be given a spot in the rotation, with the understanding that health is out of our control. Questions: Is Keuchel a No1? What is McCullers if healthy. Does Mustrogove project as a 3 or 4? Is there any reason why Devinski and Feliz shouldn't be given a chance to start, and if so, do they project to back of the rotation because of their inexperience? Both look like they have real talent, and Devo has No 3 upside I think. What is McHugh - a typical JAG #4 starter type? I'm assuming Fiers is not in our plans. Is there any reason to even consider Peacock?
Pencilling Keuchel in as #2 would be a safer bet. Keuchel should still have stretches of dominance (#1 performance). There has been talk that the change in low strike calls cut into his effectiveness. McCullers has #1 talent potential. He suffer last year from both shoulder soreness and an elbow strain. This is a bright, flashing red flag. Musgrove projects as #3, but is young and may still develop further. Devinski and Feliz are right now 2 pitch pitchers and thus will start the season in the bullpen. IIRC Devinski has a third pitch (average curveball) but if he has to pitch 6/7 innings his fastball may become slower and less effective. Devenski's development has exceeded expectations, so there is that. McHugh is a #3 but has stretches of dominance. Fiers and Peacock do not have long term futures with the Astros. But Peacock end last season pitching really well.
Fairly high ceiling, but very little in the way of certainty. Keuchel I think will rebound to be very good, maybe even ace level. But he's coming off a very bad year, so you can't count on it. McCullers gets ace results, but he hasn't made 30 big league starts, so until he does it, you can't count on it. Musgrove had decent results last year, but is still unproven. I love Musgrove and think he is eventually gonna be a very good starter, but still basically unknown quantity. McHugh is basically what he is now. A competent 4 or 5 starter who probably shouldn't be making any postseason starts if a team is able to get there. Fiers will probably go into next season as the emergency swingman. I highly doubt we have him penciled in to the rotation. Feliz and Devo will be back in the pen. Peacock had solid results last year, but his peripherals suggest he's still the same guy, just with some good luck. I would put him behind Fiers in the pecking order, and frankly think we should just move on from him altogether I'm certain we will add a starter to those top 4 guys, I'm just not sure what caliber. Given how much uncertainty at the top, I really hope we add somebody that should be really good without question marks (nothing is ever guaranteed, but you know what I mean)
Might have to part with McCullers or Musgrove to get a top of the order starter (and opening the door for Fiers, Peacock et al)
Are you saying that the strike zone change affected his performance this year? If so, then that's not correct because the strike zone changes are applied next season.
I misremembered this slightly ... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-are-reasons-to-worry-about-dallas-keuchel/
Starters Keuchal McCullers Mchugh Musgrove Morton Fiers Relievers Giles Gregerson Harris Devenski Sipp Gustave Then we have to decide what to do about Feliz and Paulino. Feliz showed great promise at times, do we send him to AAA to further develop as a starter? I think we can actually replace Feliz with Jandel Gustave in the bullpen for now and develop Feliz and Paulino as starters for the future. I think we need an extra arm in the pen to limit innings for our starters, which means we have to choose between a handful of guys. I think it's between Chapman (could use another lefty), Peacock (could use another long reliever), or Hoyt (could use his velocity). All are fringy 25 man roster guys, but I don't want to have Devenski throwing 120 innings a year as a reliever. Or we could utilize Morton or Fiers on a regular basis as a reliever.
My pick from that group is Hoyt. There are always ST injuries so the 13 man pitching staff is in flux the whole year. I do like the idea of Feliz starting the year in AAA as a starter.
I like the idea of thinking through the rotation and bullpen at a high level. But seems like wasted effort to project whether specific guys will land at the back of the pen or in AAA, or who fills out the roster. It's clear there will be a lot more movement, so the small decisions that come at the end won't be relevant for a while. And the makeup of the rotation/pen/depth may change significantly by then.
A championship pitching staff seems to usually be comprised of 3 top of the rotation guys, 2 solid innings eaters, and group of 3-4 players made up of a mix of top prospects and AAAA starters. Here's where Houston stands (included 2017 projection from Fangraphs): Kuechel: 4.1 fWAR ToR SP McCullers: 3.6 fWAR injury risk ToR SP McHugh: 2.6 fWAR solid MoR SP Musgrove: 1.4 fWAR top prospect Morton: 2.1 fWAR injury risk MoR SP Fiers: 1.8 fWAR solid innings eater Other Top Prospects: Martes, Paulino, Feliz AAAA SP: Rodgers, Peacock, Hauschild The depth is there; I left off Devenski since he was so good as a reliever I don't see them moving him back. Really, if they could somehow flip McHugh and upgrade him to a true ToR SP without giving up too many prospects they'd be right where they need to be.
If it makes anyone feel better, this easily could've been DET's rotation right now: Scherzer Verlander Porcello Fulmer Who cares
I look at that list and think "if we packaged McHugh, Musgrove, Martes and another B-level prospect together what kind of guy can we get?" That's significant depth and you can't play them all (as ML starters). Time to cash a lot of chips for one big one.
Unless you are saying they could have easily signed Porcello when he was a free agent, they wouldn't have had Porcello and Fulmer. Porcello got them Cespedes and Cespedes got them Fulmer.
Rotation is set barring a trade: Keuchel McCullers McHugh Musgrove Morton Devenski/Feliz/Rodgers/Martes/Paulino are fantastic emergency spot start options. Bullpen shapes up as: Giles Gregerson Harris Devenski Feliz Lefty situational guy Sipp Fiers doesn't have a spot, he's dealt or waived.
It seems like the entire season depends on Keuchel and McCullers returning to form and staying healthy. I'm concerned.
I get the considerable distaste for Fiers after last season, but those last two lines are ridiculous. Fiers is the obvious spot-starter if he doesn't make the rotation. He's been a ML starter for the last 5 years, pitched with like a solid MOR at times and despite his crappy 2016 still has a career ERA under 4.00. That's a "fantastic emergency spot start option". Meanwhile the other 5 have a combined 7 career starts; Devo is the only one with significant ML success (in relief), Martes hasn't even made the majors yet and Paulino and Rodgers haven't had more than a cup of coffee. I'd clearly choose Fiers over any of those guys but Devo for a spot start and I'd probably prefer not to jerk Devo back and forth between the pen and rotation anway.
That's my expectation. A star to go with Kuechel and McCullers, then Morton as the 4th guy. 1 of Musgrove/McHugh (whichever isn't traded) is the 5th starter, with Fiers and Peacock in long relief. Rodgers, Hauschild, and 1 of Martes/Feliz/Paulino waiting in AAA.
I don't have any distaste for Fiers, he's been a valuable solid piece the last year and a half. But his time has run out on having a spot on this team (like Feldman) the Astros have developed far too many arms for him to block there progression. He would be a fantastic emergency spot start option if he didn't have a guaranteed contract and could be optioned back and forth too AAA, but he can't. He hasn't come close to outperforming Devo or Feliz out of the pen, and they are young and likely reach there ceiling potential with more experience/coaching. Plus, final year of his contract, bottom of the barrel class of FA starters. Teams will be wanting an innings eater at the back of the rotation, he should fetch a very good prospect from someone
