Our starting five MPG are according to what they played last year are: Yao 34 Howard 32 Battier 35 McGrady 37 Alston 38 That is 176 mins of posible 240 MPG total. That leaves us for 64 good MPG to our bench. Our most probable bench player until now to play during the season are: Spanoulis Hayes Mutombo Head Novak Snyder Jacobsen Lucas That is 8 players for only 64 min. My guess will be that we are going to play a 10 deep rotation during regular season leaving three of those players with little to no minutes. Now my questions: Who will you include in the 10 men rotation? How do you think that the mins are going to be divided among these players?
Let's start first by saying Alston will not get 38 mpg again this season. I'd say 2 of the bench players will eventually start getting 20+ mpg, and 1 other will get 15+ mpg. The rest of the players will get the remainder of the PT (~ 15-20mpg total) due to injuries, fouls, brief rest time, blow-out minutes, and selective match-ups based on the opponent. So, i'd say we will have a rotation of 8-9 players who will play 15+ every game, with scrub minutes for others. JVG (like Riley) usually wants a regular game rotation of 8-9 players. My 8-9 man rotation? here's my guess so far: <ul><li>Hayes will get his minutes <li>Lucas might not play much at all, but (like Hayes) he does have limited competition if he can indeed show he's an NBA player. <li>at least 2 of the 3 between VSpan, Head, and Snyder will be in the regular rotation. If Lucas is not ready for prime time, and VSPan, Head, and Snyder all show they are, we'll probably go with these three and no Lucas.</ul> The rest of the players will get their share of sub-5 minute games and complete zeroes (DNP Coach's Decision).
I also dont think Howard is going to get 32 mins a game either. Even if Howard Starts there is no way he plays that much. I think he gets maybe 20-25 min a game, Battier takes 20 a game at the 4, and Hayes the rest. I also agree on alston. He gets about 30 min a game and the rest get split between V-span, Head, and Tmac bringing the ball up even if he isnt really playing the 1. I think Yao gets about 38 mpg, and Battier and Tmac both play at about 40-42 mpg. Hopefully everyone holds up.
I'd take 5 away from Rafer and then... Spanoulis 5 Hayes 11 Mutombo 12 Head 7 Novak 7 Snyder 14 Jacobsen 1 Lucas 12 and you forgot 1... Bowen 0.00
If Sura comes back healthy, even a shade of what he was, that would answer and solve so many backcourt issues, and would eliminate any minutes for John Lucas. I think VSpan, Hayes, and Head grab the most minutes off the bench if Sura cannot return. Novak or Jacobsen could sneak in there as well.
T-Mac will get 40 It'll be 35-Yao/13-Deke 24-Juwan/14-Shane/10-Chuck 24-Shane/24-TMac 16-TMac/24-Kirk/8-Luther 30-Rafer/8-Luther/8-Lucas or Vassilis
EDITED,forgot to put some numbers: T-Mac will get 40 It'll be 35-Yao/13-Deke 24-Juwan-24/14-Shane/10-Chuck 24-Shane-24/TMac-24 16-TMac-16/Kirk-24/8-Luther 30-Rafer/8-Luther/10-Lucas or Vassilis
I'd take 5 away from Rafer and then... Spanoulis 5 Hayes 11 Mutombo 12 Head 7 Novak 7 Snyder 14 Jacobsen 1 Lucas 12 and you forgot 1... Bowen 0.00 Im not so sure about lucas just yet. He had 2 10 day contracts last year and had a very good summer league but it is only summer league. Head at least is some what established after being in the NBA for a year and averaging good minutes in his rookie season. I would love Luther to be a spark of the bench with 14 minutes Snyder 12 and Lucas 7 PS. LOL about bowen.
^ We need someone to take the backup pg spot and I see Head as a too short sg. IMO, but it's JVG's that counts, JL3 is a better pg than Head and if he gets the chance he'll show it.
I seriously doubt that Lucas will play significant minutes. JVG loves to "change tempo" of the game by using small fast guards such as Moochie, Lucas might play the same role
First JVG has said in the past he prefers 8-9 man rotation. He beleives a 10 man rotation is too much. Kill Bill and Novak will both find ways to get minutes. Snyder can write his own ticket. If he plays well, he might end up playing 35 mpg. If he doesn't, he'll be playing <15-20mpg. I hope he has a breakout season but that's doubtful. My predition: Yao: 36mpg TMac: 38mpg Battier: 35 Snyder: 21 Juwan: 30 Rafer: 30 VSpan: 14 Novak: 11 Head: 20 Other: 5 That's your 9 man rotation as I see it right now. Hayes and Novak will fight for minutes. If Novak is drilling his shots, Hayes won't get any PT ...period. But if Novak is a bust, we'll need Hayes hustle.
Alston, Spanoulis, Head, and Snyder will get the bulk of the backcourt minutes at the start of the season with McGrady sliding over for some 2 guard. At some point in the season, I expect one of these four guys to drop to just filler minutes. Yao, Howard, Mutumbo, Battier, Hayes, and McGrady will play the majority of the frontcourt minutes with Snyder sliding over sometimes for some small forward. I am unsure how the PF minutes will be split, but I expect one of Hayes or Howard will drop out of the rotation. It would not surprise me if Howard becomes the primary center backup instead of Mutumbo, but I really hope not.
5: Yao (34), Deke (8), Howard (6) 4: Bat (20), Howard (18), Hayes (10) 3: Tmac (30), Bat (16), Snyder (x) 2: Snyder (x), Tmac (6), Head (x), VSpan (x), Jacobsen (x), Abuz (x) 1: Alston (x), JL3 (x), Head (x), VSpan (x) I feel very certain about Yao, Tmac and Battiers minutes and positions. Yao at all center of course, Tmac mostly at the 3 (sprinkle of SG), and Battier stilted towards the 4 (back-up SF as well). I also feel fairly certain JH will get a lot of back-up 4 time, and share with Deke the back-up C time. But I think our SG and PG spots and minutes are completely up for grabs. Would not even shock me if Snyder or Alston, maybe both, no longer start a couple of months in. Hopefully the big guards play well enough that Tmac doesn't have to pick up SG minutes (which means more time for Bat at SF and JH at the 4)--but even that is on the table. I can't see anyway JVG, let alone any of us, have any degree of certainty in who plays among the primary guards and how much time they play. They all have huge questions.
I would not count out JL3 of being more trusted than Rafer by midseason, or that he might not get more minutes than VSpan (VSpan has a bigger leap in adjusting to the NBA game/US culture). If Rafer doesn't hit a decent clip from 3 land and the field, he just isn't effective enough playing off of playmakers like Tmac and Yao. I think all 8 guards on the roster have a shot at minutes and maybe even a starting position before the season is done. Just depends on what they do and what others like Snyder and Rafer in particular do. If Snyder proves unreliable as a teammate or Rafer doesn't shoot decent--not that unlikely as it requires them to break both of their recent histories, it is all up for the taking.
While I agree all the guards have a shot, the four I listed are in my opinion the frontrunners for PT. I don't have a good idea how they split the minutes. JLIII is someone that will have to work hard and wait for either VSpan to falter or JVG to realize how much Alston's shooting* hurts the Rockets. He's short for his position. I don't know why, but I get the feeling that JVG dislikes short people like himself. He may play a short person that plays big, but will assume a short player plays short until proven otherwise. Among the guards I don't think will initially be in the rotation, he has the best chance of fighting his way in. I'd put his odds of getting into the rotation (15+min) at about 35% without injury. Jacobson is fighting to get 3pt specialist minutes with his max minutes probably being 20 per game. My guess is he makes team, but plays 5-10 minutes a game on average. He is a deep longshot for starting. Abuz...don't know much about him. Usually that equates to riding pine if he makes team, but you never know with an NBA unproven commodity such as Abuz. *Depending on shooting continuing to suck, but previous years suggest he has a chance to get respectable.
