I think Kyle Weiland has earned a rotation spot. Wandy, Bud, Kyle and Livan. Question is do we cut Happ or start Lyles in AAA?
I don't see much point in sending Lyles back to the minors. He got almost 100 big league innings last year. We may as well keep him up and see how he can develop on the fly. It is a tough decision though. Happ did shows flashes at the end of last season.
And Happ was a complete train wreck the rest of the season. I think Happ is a bit of a long shot. His best hope may be if Luhnow wants Lyles to get more seasoning in AAA, which is a shaky proposition as others have mentioned. On a similar note, Livan is hoping that enough of the prospect arms need seasoning to make room for him in the starting rotation. OIOW Livan will not block any MLB ready prospects.
They offered him arbitration. If they didn't want him back, they could have let him go. J.A. Happ will be in the rotation. In 445 ML Innings, he has an ERA of 4.00. To make this clear, he has a career ERA of 4. Wandy Rodriguez has a career ERA of 4.07. Myers was moved to the bullpen to make room for somebody. Lyles/Weiland/Livan/Duke are competing for 2 spots. Weiland could go to the pen. Duke could as well, but I think he would be more likely sent to be DFA. The reason why Lyles might go to AAA? He is 21 and has posted an ERA of 4.21 in his less than 100 innings at AAA and 5.35 in his 94 big league innings.
Happ has a 1.383 career WHIP to go with that 4.00 ERA. Last year, Happ got his brains kicked in. 5.35 ERA. 1.535 WHIP. Those numbers do not inspire. Happ is 29 and should be near his peak performance. I suspect his $$$ball projections for next year will be underwhelming. It will be interesting to see what Luhnow does with Happ. (IIRC Wade not Luhnow offered Happ arbitration.)
Luhnow was hired December 8th, Happ was tendered December 13th. That career WHIP isn't terrible. Wandy has 1.35 Happ was bad for most of last year, in fact, he was god awful for most of it, but he has enough successful innings, minor league success, and a strong finish last year to back up getting another shot.
I listened to most of Clemens' innings while in the car today. According to the announcers, he was mixing a 96-97 mph heater with a 76 mph curve. He was locating both pitches. That difference in speeds is ridicurous. Sounds like what Roy O used to do in his younger days.
Yeah, except Roy's curve was 69 mph and totally impossible to prepare for due to the vast change in speed.
Ah the good old days. Roy chucking heat and then getting some knee-buckles with that beautiful 12-6 drop curve. A near perfect implementation of a classic pitch.
Clemens was sent down to the minors today. Astros send several to Minor League camp: Clemens, Pendleton, Garcia, Chris Wallace, D. Hernandez, Singleton, Barnes, Goebbert, Abreu per Footer.
Rotation Intrigue Abounds For Houston Astros There's still plenty of spring training to go, but it's never too early to start looking at how the rotation might start breaking down. Who's locked into spots, who has a shot and who might be on the outside looking in? LOCKS Wandy Rodriguez - The lefty is probably the odds-on favorite to start Opening Day. Suffice it to say he's going to be in the rotation. Bud Norris - He's such a lock to make the rotation that Houston felt good enough skipping him for a start to get Kyle Weiland some work. Livan Hernandez - I know, weird, right? How does this guy go from being a long shot for even making the team to being a lock for a rotation spot? Well, the move of Brett Myers to closer helped this quite a bit. That freed up a spot in the rotation that Brad Mills was only too happy to fill with a veteran like Livan. He's going to eat innings and has pitched well this spring. PROBABLE If we assume the above guys have locks on spots, that leaves two open. Let's run through the guys who have actually made starts this spring. J.A. Happ - Ugh. This is business as usual with Happ. He makes a lot of money, but he hasn't been very good this spring. At least in his last start, he found the strike zone more often. But, that also led to him getting hit around more. The question that needs answering is if Houston is keeping him in the rotation because he'll end up there or if they're just showcasing him for a possible trade. Zach Duke - Can you imagine the Astros keeping three lefties in the rotation? Neither can I, which means the last spot may come down to Duke or Happ. Since J.A. is the one who has three starts already this spring, count on him having the inside track, but I bet Duke gets strong consideration here. Jordan Lyles - He was rushed a bit to the majors last season and, while he performed admirably, Lyles could use a little refinement in Triple-A. I wouldn't be surprised if he held onto the fifth spot, but kind of hope he does go down to the minors and work on things, like improving his velocity. OUTSIDE CHANCES Kyle Weiland - The only guy outside the ones listed above to have made a start this spring. Weiland certainly didn't disappoint, throwing no-hit stuff at the New York Yankees and flashing that heavy sinker he's known for. If we assume only one of Happ and Duke are making the rotation, Weiland has a shot at grabbing the fifth spot away from Lyles, doesn't he? Paul Clemens - Those brilliant innings he threw on Wednesday may not be enough to get him a spot on the Opening Day roster, but it looks more and more likely that Clemens could contribute this season. He's got a ton of upside and could do some nice things if given a chance to start every fifth day. Maybe after Wandy's flipped at the trade deadline? Lucas Harrell - Out of all the pitchers in camp without a start yet, Harrell has the most innings pitched with 5 2/3. Does that mean anything? Probably not, but I'd bet he gets a chance to extend and possibly start some of those split squad games coming up, just to get work in. If nothing else, he'll provide great depth at Triple-A. Henry Sosa - Don't forget about Sosa, who doesn't have the innings of the guys above, but has also been pretty terrible in the early going. It's spring, so discount numbers. I like the 3 Ks in four innings with only one walk. Sosa has a shot to maybe be the long man in the bullpen. And that's it, at least for me. Are there guys out there you think have a shot at actually making the rotation? How would you handicap the race at this point?
