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[Sports Illustrated] Rockets suddenly in prime playoff position

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Rockets25, Mar 2, 2011.

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Rockets25 Member

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http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/03/02/rockets-suddenly-in-prime-playoff-position/

I discarded the Rockets from the playoff race about two or three weeks ago, even though their scoring margin is better than that of almost every team with whom they’re competing for the bottom playoff spot in the Western Conference — and even though I could watch Luis Scola toss up scoop shots all day. They were just too far behind.

But as Kevin Martin made clear this week, the Rockets have not quit, and their win in Portland last night marked their fifth straight. They are suddenly 31-31, at .500 for the first time since the end of 2010, and John Hollinger’s playoff odds system at ESPN.com gives Houston a solid 41 percent chance to sneak into the playoffs. They trail Utah by two games in the loss column, the Grizzlies by three and the Blazers, Hornets and Suns by four each. They’ll have to leap past three of those clubs to make the postseason. That would seem unlikely, but the Rockets have a few things going in their favor (in addition to the fact that they are playing well right now):

• They play the Suns twice in the next 12 days, once each in Phoenix and Houston. Sweep those two games, and the Rockets would win the head-to-head tie-breaker with Phoenix, 2-1, in addition to making up two quick games on the Suns in the standings. Those are very close to must-win games for Houston.

• Their schedule is the easiest among this group of clubs, and includes 13 more home games — more than any team in Houston’s area of the standings, save for Memphis, which also has 13 to go.

Even better: The Rockets have 13 games left against Western Conference teams, but only four of those games come against the seven teams with at least a 50 percent chance (under Hollinger’s system) of making the postseason. And one of those games comes next week in Houston against the Spurs, who are suddenly without Tony Parker. They have no more games against the Lakers, Thunder, Heat, Magic or Bulls.

Compare that to Phoenix, which has 19 of its last 24 games against Western Conference opponents — and a whopping 11 against likely Western Conference playoff teams. Utah has 10 games left against those likely playoff teams, the Blazers nine, the Hornets seven and the Grizzlies six. That’s a meaningful edge for Houston, though not as meaningful as it might be, since it appears almost impossible for conference record to emerge as a tie-breaker that could help the Rockets.

Even so: Having the easiest schedule among these teams counts for something, tie-breakers aside.

• The Rockets have already won the tie-breaker with Memphis based on their 3-1 edge in head-to-head matchups, and they host Utah on March 20 in the rubber match between those two teams. They have a chance to split the season series, 2-2, against the Hornets, though that will only help them if New Orleans completely collapses against its divisional foes; the Hornets are 6-4 against the Southwest Division, of which Houston is a member, while the Rockets are only 4-8. Divisional record comes right after head-to-head in the tie-break hierarchy if the tied teams are in the same division (as is the case with both the Grizzlies and Hornets for Houston) — and ahead of conference record, where the Rockets have a realistic chance to catch the Hornets.

If the Rockets get in — and perhaps even if they don’t — Rick Adelman deserves at least a passing mention in the Coach of the Year discussion. The Rockets, right now, are tied with the Spurs for third place in the points per possession rankings, meaning they have an elite offense despite starting an average (and, if we’re being honest, probably below average) point guard in Kyle Lowry, a defense-first guy at center (Chuck Hayes) where Yao Ming was supposed to be, and, until last week, a limited spot-up shooter at small forward (Shane Battier). And they’re tied with the Spurs, whose offense has been the subject of so many glowing analyses this season, and right behind the Nuggets and the Lakers in the rankings of the league’s best offenses.

That says a ton about Kevin Martin, one of the game’s truly great offensive players, and about Scola’s ability to score against bigger defenders, hit mid-range shots, pass and cut.

But it also says something about Adelman’s motion-heavy system, the degree to which these players have committed to that system and the brainy style with which the Rockets generally play. This is not a team of players who hijack the offense and do things that are out of their character. They stick to principles of Adelman’s Princeton-style offense, cutting and moving the ball constantly until someone finds a good look. With the exception of Martin and Scola, they rarely isolate, and even when their stars do isolate, they don’t stop the ball for five seconds and pound it into the ground. They get it and go, which is one reason Houston gets to the line more often, per shot attempt, than all but six teams in the league despite the lack of any dynamite low-post force.

They also rank fifth in assist rate, which measures the percentage of a team’s baskets that come via assists. Again: movement and selflessness.

Also of note: They take a ton of threes, which is smart given Houston’s personnel. No team turns the ball over less often.

Their downfall, of course, is their 25th-ranked defense, but that’s a failure of personnel more than of effort and smarts. It’s hard to defend the rim when you lack a true center, and teams indeed shoot well near the hoop and grab lots of offensive boards against Houston. Martin, for all his offensive gifts, is a minus defender who has trouble negotiating screens and often takes bad routes around them — especially along the baseline.

But Houston at least tries hard and plays smart on defense, which you can’t say about every NBA team. Hayes is a genius at shoving guys out of their comfort zones in the post and of rotating to cut off dribble penetration. (He’s also great at faking a hard rotation, convincing a ball-handler to pass, only to slide back into position to steal or deflect that pass). Scola’s quickness is limited, but he usually makes decent reads and does something I really like out of a big man: If he notices his man is trailing the play as an opposing point guard brings the ball up, Scola will quickly shift over to bother that ball-handler until his guy enters the play. It’s a small thing, but it helps. So does avoiding silly fouls, and Adelman’s teams have rarely been foul-prone.

As you saw against Portland on Tuesday, the Rockets are also a dynamic help team when Hayes faces an elite post-up scorer. They bothered LaMarcus Aldridge all night but sending quick double-teams from all over the court — never from the same spot twice in a row.

Houston is just a fun team to watch, and it would a little spice to these last 20 games if they could really become a factor.
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#1 Rockets25, Mar 2, 2011

rodmanhust Member

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7th or 8th seed probably.
lose in 6 or 7 games most likely.

#2 rodmanhust, Mar 2, 2011
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rodmanhust said: ↑

7th or 8th seed probably.
lose in 6 or 7 games most likely.
Click to expand...

highly optimistic.

#3 HoustonRockets, Mar 2, 2011
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Unless Thaabet becomes useful this year there's no point to be in the playoffs.

#4 Prince, Mar 2, 2011
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Thank you thank you! Finally ssome recognition. This was a great article! Let's go Houston

#5 RealRocFan47, Mar 2, 2011
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I think the tune on Lowry is going to change pretty quick. He is winning his PG matchups now, and if he keeps that up, this 'below average' talk will stop in a hurry.

#6 Nero, Mar 2, 2011
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that is wron he said no more games against the heat but actually we do in miami on the 27th of this month :grin:

#7 DCHAMP, Mar 2, 2011

baller4life315 Contributing Member

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Optimism, eh?

Didn't know such a thing was allowed in these parts.

#8 baller4life315, Mar 2, 2011
RealRocFan47 Member

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Prince said: ↑

Unless Thaabet becomes useful this year there's no point to be in the playoffs.
Click to expand...

There is a point. The point is we are a playoff team and can only get better. The top teams continue to get better. It would be foolish to think we can go from the bottom to the top in this era on the NBA. There is just too many talented teams. The best option is to continue to grow off of success. Making the playoffs would be a success!

#9 RealRocFan47, Mar 2, 2011
STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member

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"despite starting an average (and, if we’re being honest, probably below average) point guard in Kyle Lowry"

Really? I would say he is above average.....

#10 STR8Thugg, Mar 2, 2011
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Scola’s quickness is limited, but he usually makes decent reads and does something I really like out of a big man: If he notices his man is trailing the play as an opposing point guard brings the ball up, Scola will quickly shift over to bother that ball-handler until his guy enters the play. It’s a small thing, but it helps. So does avoiding silly fouls, and Adelman’s teams have rarely been foul-prone.
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I always find this hilarious. Probably one of my favorite things about Scola. He's so annoying sometimes.

#11 Moahst, Mar 2, 2011
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Sports Illustrated

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

#12 weslinder, Mar 2, 2011
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Love the recognition they are getting lately.

#13 coachbadlee, Mar 2, 2011

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We have 12 games at home, not 13, and as another poster already pointed out, we do still play the Heat.

But anyway, nice article giving Houston a lot of props. I've also been saying that those two games against the Suns HUGE. If we can win both I'll be much more optimistic about our playoff chances.

Love the part where he says he could watch Scola toss up scoop shots all day. It's hard to appreciate guys on our team sometimes when we're not winning, but Scola's low post moves are truly a thing of beauty!

#14 wakawakka, Mar 2, 2011
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STR8Thugg said: ↑

"despite starting an average (and, if we’re being honest, probably below average) point guard in Kyle Lowry"

Really? I would say he is above average.....
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Wow, shutting down star PG's makes you below average? Really? Poor Lowry. Gets no respect.

#15 coachbadlee, Mar 2, 2011
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lowry is up and coming, were gonna surprise a lot of teams and hopefully sneak in the playoffs:grin:

#16 danoman, Mar 2, 2011
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Excellent analysis of the Rockets offense and of what the individual players do in our offense that I think gets overlooked during the fast pace of the game. Interesting observation about Scola I'll have to keep an eye on that in the games.

#17 manotaur, Mar 2, 2011
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RealRocFan47 said: ↑

There is a point. The point is we are a playoff team and can only get better. The top teams continue to get better. It would be foolish to think we can go from the bottom to the top in this era on the NBA. There is just too many talented teams. The best option is to continue to grow off of success. Making the playoffs would be a success!
Click to expand...

this is what im talkin about right here. thank you for showing support for OUR team. some of you guys get so damn moody since we arent the best team.

#18 Sadat X, Mar 2, 2011

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The Rockets are competing, hard. Fighting for loose balls, diving in the stands, taking the ball to the hoop. It looks like the intensity level has been raised. Chemistry is everything in basketball and it looks like we are jelling at just the right time. 3 games out with 20 games to go, it can be done. At the very least, they are making these last 20 games very interesting. Lets go Rockets.

#19 lexled, Mar 2, 2011

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megastahr Contributing Member

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What are the odds us Memphis and suns all make it...cause that would be the dream scenario.

#20 megastahr, Mar 2, 2011

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