So, Huff's contract is up at the end of this year? I hope it's not anothe Beltran situation. He blows up, in the reg season and playoffs and then the price goes threw the roof. I want him to do good, I just want him longer than 1/2 of a season.
according to the book...which apparently no one in baseball is following, because the 3 hole is still the spot for teams' best hitters. which brings us back to real shady's point...you want someone like rolen batting behind pujols so there' s a consequence for the intentional walk.
The only time its really relevant is when the #1 hitter is leading off (otherwise, no one's in their normal position anyway). And if you have two normal 1 and 2 hitters (0.350 OBP types), the #3 hitter will come up with men on base more than 50% of the time. You want your best overall hitter there to keep the bases moving. If you put a low OBP guy there, there's a good chance of killing a rally and preventing your 4 guy from coming up with people on base. You don't really care as much if the 5 or 6 type hitters walk a lot, as chances are fairly low that they'll get driven in. So you want your pure power / low OBP guys in that type of spot. Can you name a team in baseball that use your philosophy? Everyone, if they can, puts a high OBP, good power guy in the 3 spot. The three best teams in baseball put high OBP guys in that spot - Thome, Ortiz, and I-Rod.
this is my point. no one uses this stuff. they have millions invested in their team...and no one is doing it. the moneyballers take this christopher columbus, "everyone else thinks the world is flat...but i'm much smarter than that," approach. in this thread we've learned that: 1. hitters should be judged on the exact same criteria, no matter their spot in the order; 2. everyone in baseball is wrong. the 3 spot is wasted on a high OBP guy. in fact, you should put your 4th or 5th best hitter in the 3 spot; 3. everyone in baseball is wrong. you're not looking for the 4 hitter to drive in runs...in fact, there's really very little value to that, because it's equally good to just take a walk; 4. a great measure of a player is making up a player that doesn't exist and comparing every player in the league to that imaginary player. There's a certain arrogance about all this. That no one knew how to really judge talent and build a team until the microprocessor was invented. And everything you've ever learned about baseball was wrong. As an aside...Richard Justice clearly does not like Tim Purpura. You can hear it in his sarcasm this morning on sports radio....you can read it in his articles. I'm guessing Purpura doesn't like Justice much either.
all depends on who is batting next. put brad ausmus behind albert pujols...with 2 outs you're still not walking pujols?
The true arrogance is from people like you who assume that because it's always been done this way that it must be the right way. Of course, the most important thing about lineups is not who hits where, but who gets in the starting lineup.
Brad Ausmus is practically a pitcher at the plate, so in that extreme example, yes, I would walk Pujols.
i'm not making that assumption at all. i find it to be quite logical to expect the 4 guy in my lineup to drive in runs, for example.
you're down 1 run in the 9th, the top of the lineup is due, the top 2 batters have gotten outs, who do you want coming up? if it's not your best hitter (i.e. Pujols) you're out of your mind. your best hitter batting 3rd gets more at bats throughout the course of the season than if he were batting anywhere else down the lineup.
using an extreme to make a point. the point is, it does matter who is batting behind you. some of it is psychological with the pitcher...some of it is just because you'd rather pitch to one guy as opposed to another. but it does matter. if you've ever pitched, you know it matters. there are a few problems with the little study you posted. first of all, it's not the very same batter in those situations. the unprotected batter is not the very same guy as the protected batter. so you're using stats from one guy or one set of guy and juxtaposing them against one other guy or another set of guys. evidence of hittable pitches??? some things are a bit more difficult to quantify. that's the point some of us are making with ensberg...that he's seeing hittable pitches and letting them go in exchange for working a walk. in many situations that's fine...but not from a cleanup hitter when runners are in scoring position.
It would be nice to get Pujols to bat, but it would be even nicer to get one of the previous two runners on base for any hitter. With no one on base and two outs in the bottom of the 9th, the home team only has a 4% chance of winning. With a runner on first and 1 out, they have a 21% chance of winning. See - http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html
