hmmm...no mention of the weak dollar in there....gee i wonder why? hey comets maybe you can tell me where demand is at now and where oil prices are at now? i'm not too sure. i think oil prices are much cheaper and demand is much lower but i am too dumb to figure it out also, i won't deny the last 20-30 bucks or so was panic/mania/short covering/whatever you want to call it but the bulk of the move was the weak dollar and demand. and since i am the idiot then maybe you can explain why all the other commodities were spiking that were in high demand in the emerging markets. was it all "speculators" or was it only "speculators" in the oil markets? please do tell. i also love how "speculators" are only allowed to take long positions in the mind of people like cometswin. nah "speculators" could never be "speculating" on the herd mentality of oil going up forever actually dying out. ...aka "speculators" could never be short expecting the mania to die off. nah "speculators" are only out to hurt you because they are evil1!!!11!!!!!!@@!@$@!$1
I laughed really hard at this. I don't agree with much of it, but it was really funny. This maybe your finest moment, T_J.
you do know they for every buyer there is a seller, right? there aren't a limted number of contracts like there are shares in the float of a company on the stock market. you do understand that if the buyers aren't taking physical delivery of the oil then they aren't hoarding it and taking the SUPPLY off the market, right?
hey were speculators driving the dry bulk shipping market too? they went up a lot and now they are down a lot. must be speculators...
The oil prices have been nothing but a bubble. Supply and Demand BALANCE a bubble. When money is poured into a market, you start to create a bubble. The more money, the bigger the bubble. People are taking a loss on oil ... its the consumers. The difference is that consumers have little choice. Supply had very little to do with the problem. It was all demand. The consumer needs the oil and will continue to pay more for it, especially when you make them believe its temporary (katrinina, Rita, some random ship firing its gun in the the Gulf, ect ...). The prices will continue to go up as long as the consumer tolerates it, regardless if there is a huge supply. Eventually the consumer is forced to cut back. This in turns force the INVESTORS into a selling frenzy to cut losses. The housing bubble was not created because of a shortage of housing. It was created because money was being poured into the market when it never should have been.
To me, the unlimited nature of commodities trades is what is so dangerous. The dealers who pump this stuff up make their commissions on the number of and value of their trades. They sell leveraged positions to exploit greed and hedges to exploit fear. That would be all well and good and providing a sense of balance to the market if people weren't buying on credit; if they had real assets to back up their potential losses. If you fail to account for random events in a credit system you are just asking for a huge crash of dominoes.
I'm sure oil helped fuel the recession (pun intended), remember the numbers coming out are saying we've been in recession the entire year.
Housing is not what sent the world economy into a recession. Its a lack of responsibility and accountability. Instead of throwing the financial crooks in jail, we rewarded them with a massive bail out.
Stop talking to yourself in circles like a goober. It's clear you haven't read the article that destroys your position in detail. I just want to make clear though, your new position isn't that speculators never take delivery so they can't manipulate the market it's now the weak dollar that caused gas to go from $1.50 to $4 and back down to $1.50 in a 3 year span. Oh that crazy dollar.
can we throw greenspan in jail too? can we boot out all of the politicians complicit in this massive debt we have built up?
Housing market policy was the primary cause of both the recent world economy boom and bust. Nothing has ever created more wealth like the recent US mortgage system. A bank that has $10,000 in deposits can loan $100,000 to consumers who buy $1,000,000 of housing. The multiplier effect of low bank asset limits and low equity requirements fueled a wildfire of demand. Fees for every broker, equity inflation for every homeowner.... until the last fool bought his Mcmansion. Every boom has it bust. Anytime people are making money without doing any real work, it's probably unsustainable.
Guns dont kill people, people do. No, it's not housing itself, but the housing bubble that is causing the current mess.
John Taylor of Stanford had an interesting paper. What happened right before the oil super spike? The FED slashed rates dramatically, sending tons of money into the system. Same as what they did right before the housing bubble.
no if you go back and read anything i ever posted on oil prices i state clearly that the strength of the dollar is a factor in oil prices. there is nothing to doubt about this. oil is priced in dollars. the dollar's strength or weakness relative to other currencies effects the price of commodities priced in dollars. please tell me where i said it was the sole reason for the oil moves. you can't because i never said it. quit trying to one up me and read what i am writing. again...please tell me about the other commodity markets that spiked up as well on the emerging market demand. were they all manipulated or only the highly publicized oil spike? also...maybe you can actually answer my question about demand. i will type it in caps so you can see it and maybe explain things to me. WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO DEMAND OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS? WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE PRICE OF OIL OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS? IS IT JUST A RANDOM COINCIDENCE THAT DEMAND HAS COLLAPSED ALONG WITH THE PRICE OF OIL?
Demand went down and price went down. Of course, over the preceeding year, demand also went down and price went up. (and far more than any dollar decline) Supply also went up. So what does that tell us?
It's a mess right now but we shouldn't discount the 10 years of economic expansion we got from it. There are a lot of people worldwide living better lives than they might have ever imagined.
Which is meaningless and proves nothing. The price of oil depends on EXPECTATIONS of supply and demand in the future. Supply and demand statistics at the time of the price movements are meaningless. They are old news. The price you see quoted most often for oil is the next month price. So production or demand statistics as of the day of the price are already a month behind. The futures curve goes out several years for oil. Sympathy + Blind Following + Idol Worship + Master Marketing Plan = Tricked I will talk to you friends in February when there will be something interesting to discuss. GOOD DAY
