You're forgetting the (potentially high lottery) 2011 first round pick. Plus, unless they both dramatically improve, both Andersen and Taylor may be gone in 2011. Hayes may also be gone by then, since your scenario implies that he is brought back next year AND he is signed to another contract in 2011. Honestly, projecting the Rockets' 2011-12 lineup is an exercise in futility. There is no telling what Morey will be able to do to the roster between now and then.
True. I was just pointing out one possibility in which Llull could get 15-20 minutes off the bench (backing up Martin).
Llul is a PG. As a SG, his potential isn't even CBud's caliber. And probably won't find time if the Rockets even find the next Von Wafer. It's as a PG that his future in the NBA lies.
Sure. Unfortunately, if Sergio is referring to Rudy Fernandez's situation in Portland (where Rudy is a clear part of the rotation) as a "bad experience", then perhaps he won't be happy with only getting 15 mpg. That would be unfortunate, as Llull strikes me as an ideal backup PG.
Rockets can't get him at below market value, since the likely strategy will be to match another team's salary offer, which will be at market value. And he could possibly be offered the MLE, by one of those teams with moneyball approaches. Brooks will want a significant INCREASE on lowry's salary, and the new CBA could reduce salaries, but I don't think morey is relying on that to determine his roster strategies. I think this summer is where the ultimate decision is made on who the organisation commits to long term.
Wow, someone is a pessimist! No team purporting to employ "moneyball" strategy would offer Lowry the full MLE. That would be something a poorly run organization would do. Plus, with so many quality free agents out there and Morey already telling the world that he will be bringing Lowry back (i.e., matching any offer sheet), why would a team tie up its cap room or MLE for a week and miss out on other free agents? I'm not saying that you're wrong. Just that it's less likely that Lowry is poached than you think. Also, how can THIS summer be determinative of which PG the Rockets want to commit to long term? Does that mean that Brooks will be playing out the stretch in 2010-11 as a "lame duck" PG? That doesn't make any sense. Perhaps a decision is made in 2011, when Brooks is up for a raise. But not in 2010.
Well Ramon Sessions got 16mil/4 years, just under MLE and Lowry is much better than him, so full MLE is not out of the question. I know this would be ironic, but I could see memphis making a run at him if the rumors are true that they basically have given up on conley. I could see Pat Riley liking him as well to pair with Wade/Amare combination. He could also fit well in Charlotte with Larry Brown if Felton asks for too much money. I could see all 3 of those teams after him with full MLE. When I say decision, it won't be made public, just like it was unlikely that both Landry and Scola will get paid by the rockets, now that Landry is traded, the organisation is going to commit to Scola(unless something like Bosh becomes available). Brooks will have the most trade value THIS SUMMER, since he is on a dirt cheap contract and anyone trading for him will have a full year to evaluate him before committing significant coin to him. Just like Landry, Sactown gets 1.5 years of cheap salary to evaluate him about whether he will get their money in 2011. If Lowry gets offered a Landry like contract, like 3 years/9 Mil, then yea, it kind of lets Rockets off the hook in terms of making that decision, but if he gets a full MLE offer, then they are going to have to think long and hard about who they want to commit to, it's going to be pretty unmoneyball like to commit the full MLE to a 20 minute a night backup PG.
He is almost 6'4" and 200lbs, and a very efficient shooter/slasher. From what I hear he's kind of like a bigger, rawer, more physical version of Brooks at this point. His weakness is his passing and court vision. So yes, I think he could probably play SG.
I bet he would be more willing come over if Brooks is involved in a trade this summer for Bosh.... --RB
First of all, Miami won't have the MLE, and if they add Stoudemire using their cap space, they won't have enough space left to pay Lowry what you're saying they'd offer him. Also, with Landry gone, Lowry is clearly the Rockets' sixth man. The going rate for a quality sixth man in this league is not far from the full MLE. That said, I think Lowry gets below that amount. Again, you could be right. But I don't agree that the Rockets are "internally making a decision" on their PG of the future based on whether they pay $X instead of $Y for Lowry this summer.
Miami could have enough depending on where the cap actually lands, whether they can get rid of cook and/or anthony. I hear you about the sixth man thing, but now with Martin, Ariza, Battier, and Chase all needing time at the 2-3 spots, I don't know how often a Lowry Brooks backcourt is going to be on display. Put it this way, I cannot see Rockets matching a full MLE offer for Lowry if their internal evaluation says that he is going to be a long term backup to aaron brooks.
True enough. I personally think that Morey's plan to keep the Brooks/Lowry PG tandem will go something like this: Step 1: Try to re-sign Lowry long term to a reasonable, below market deal. Step 2: Reduce Brooks's minutes next year and play Lowry a little more, since Martin's shooting will cover up for Lowry's lack of shooting a little bit more than with the pre-trade roster. Step 3: With Brooks's stats inevitably going down in 2010-11, chalk up his 2009-10 numbers as a fluke on a mediocre, Yao-less team in free agent negotiations. Step 4: Re-sign Brooks at a reasonable cost. Sure, you've pointed out all the pitfalls that could wreck such a strategy. But I still say that's the strategy. And assuming that Step 1 works, it won't be clear if the strategy succeeds until 2011.
Best laid plans and all that The thing is what is a reasonable cost for Aaron Brooks? Would you be happy paying him Jason Terry money? Step 2 is not Morey's decision, that's up to Adelman, and he's proven to be pretty loyal to his players, Morey had to trade Alston away to get Brooks in his job. The problem with Step 3 is that Brooks is not a moneyball type player, in that I think his regular stats are better than his moneyball stats. AND his salary is probably going to be reflected not so much in his regular season stats but his playoff stats. If he gets a perfect matchup of Phoenix, Portland, LA, he could absolutely go off in the playoffs and we are looking at a huge bidding war for his services. If he gets NO, Utah, Denver, then he'd be lucky to get the MLE Remember the mike bibby contract after he went off in the playoffs in 2002?
Can someone please explain to me one thing. How is it that everybody that play basketball, their dream is to play in the NBA but as soon as they are there or have tha opportunity they turn it down or leave for a less competetive league like the euro league. dont get me wrong, the euro league is a power league but nothiung compared to the NBA. I see it being more about money to players after a certain time, sh** i wouldnt complain or mind making 1 million dollars a year or better yet half a million playing basketball...some people dont make that in a year or lifetime. Some grow some balls people and decide what its going to be...NBA or europe? money or championships? I would love to see the faces of players if they cut their salary instead of a horrific 23 million a year 4 mill for a superstar...that would be a beutiful site, not because im a hater but because it pisses me off how an athlete can complain about making millions year and all their doing is playing sports.
I think Morey will go the more simpler route: trade Brooks while his value is at its peak. In fact, I'd be very surprised if the Rockets don't make a big trade this offseason. They have too much of a logjam in their rotation, and need a 3 for 1 type trade to maximize assets and to utilize their MLE.
Wait what? Someone thinks Lowry is better than Sessions? Really? I love Brooks, but I think Sessions is getting screwed in Minny, he is a much better PG than Lowry, and is a better PG than Brooks, but Brooks is a little better player. I would love to have Sessions on this team. DD
Bima- I always love your breakdowns, but i think the lowry situation is smeared a bit. I think lowry is going to get 4m per and thats going to make the rockets pause big time. If the knicks get rudy,boozer or amare, and trade for jefferson or someone like that, lowry will be front and center on their radar. Duhon got mle money coming from chi-town. Philly is another team that might look at lowry as well and will offer good money. I know the cap will decrease and stuff, but i really think someone will offer lowry at least 4m maybe more.
Rudy was a star in Europe, surely the better SG his last 2 years, and had still potential to develope. He had high expectations coming into the NBA, thought on a future starting role playing important minutes. But had the misfortune of colliding with a superstar player at his position. Llull can't have that expectations by no means and I think he would be very happy just by playing minutes on a winner team.
After the new CBA in 2011, I think the days of $10-11M per season deals for guys like Jason Terry will be a thing of the past. On the playing time issue, agreed that it's Adelman's call. I just think as a matter of course that Brooks will not be counted on to play nearly as many minutes in a backcourt with Lowry, Martin, Ariza and possibly Budinger all playing some minutes at the guard positions and with Yao carrying more of the scoring load. I also think that you are too heavily weighting one playoff series. Again, it'll have some impact to be certain, but not as much after the new CBA is in place. If Brooks is a necessity for Toronto, then I guess they include him in a Bosh deal, but I just don't see it. His $2M salary is not going to be a significant component to putting together enough salary to make a big sign-and-trade deal work under the salary cap. Plus, I think Morey views Brooks as a key offensive component to the Rockets long term. For what Lowry brings to this team, I think $4M is not going to be too much for the Rockets to be willing to pay. Agreed, though, that it is on the high end of what Morey would be comfortable with paying.
