Sources: With the emergence of Hamilton- Granger a longshot

Even though I'd like to sign Granger, it's not because of his stats this season. He posted similar pathetic PER as our very own Garcia... Omri may declined recently, but his overall stats is way better.

 

If the cap is $60m:

Howard $22.4m
Harden 15.7
Jones 2.5
Motie 2.3
Canaan 0.9
Total = 43.8
Cap space = $16.2

And you have cap holds for free agents:
Parsons ~$1m
Beverley 1.2

Remaining cap space = $14m

We'd also have cap holds for free agents Lin, Asik, Garcia, and Covington, but we could waive all those holds to get a $14m free agent and not think twice. Draft picks can be traded.

Yeah, you probably can't get Love or Aldridge for only $14m. But, you can get a pretty good player for that amount. Or, you can use the cap space to make a salary-taking trade for a higher priced player.

But, also you don't lose all those guys you said we'd lose. We'd keep Parsons, Beverley, Jones, Motiejunas, Canaan, as well as Howard and Harden, while adding a $14m free agent. That's a solid 8-man roster with 2 franchise players, and 2 second-tier stars. Then you'd have a Room Exception or maybe even an MLE that year, a smaller exception, and minimum player exceptions to fill the last spots. Then the MLE again the next year. That's pretty good for reloading.

 

The cap is expected to go up to $62.9M for the 2014-15 season according to cap expert Larry Coon. It will likely go up again for 2015-16.

The professional basketball business has been doing well.

 

This Cyber thread was so predictable...

Hmmm...

Granger has been terrible measured by advanced and traditional statistics... Granger vaguely linked to the Rockets in report by David Aldridge... Virtually all other reports link him to SA or Miami.

I got it! Morey not interested in Granger because Hamilton had two good games! That seems safe, and when Granger isn't a Rocket I look brilliant!

 

You can't predict the cap limit in 2014-15 anymore than you can predict the weather. It was $58.680 million for 2008-09 and 5 years later it's $58.679 million.

 

totally agree with this.

 

Agree. flash in a pan?

 

Well they predicted $58.5 million last season....and low and behold...it came out $58.679. The league knows what revenues are. They've got a pretty good idea of where the cap is going. They do provide the teams guidance.

 

I'm very impressed with Hamilton so far but, it has been 2 games LOL. Need to see a little bit more, but hope he keeps it up

 

1. The NBA does these projection all the time. They are subject to later adjustment, but the projections are made and they provide a decent sense of where things stand. The cap-related numbers are based on the NBA's income level and the NBA, like any business, keep track of these things and make future projections.

See here, for example, Marc Stein and Larry Coon tweeted in on June 3, 2013 about the projected salary cap and tax threshhold for the 2013-14 season and the 2014-15 season : http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/6/4/4394314/projected-nba-salary-cap-and-tax-threshold-established

And here is Larry Coon in late November 2013 referring to a new projection for 2014-15 cap of $62.9M: http://cbafaq.com/blog/?p=286

These are sujbect to upward or downward adjustments but they are useful.




2. The reasons why the salary cap stayed flat between 2008-09 and 2013-14 are:

A. The recession hurting NBA's income growth, and

B. The CBA was renegotiated in 2011, lowering the player's share of the income significantly.

This is an atypical period. Typically, the NBA projects and experiences a growth in both its income and the salary cap grows with the NBA's income level.

 

I just fear this is Casspi 2.0

When we first got him, Morey was a genius who found a mediocre player in a bad situation and he thrived here in Houston. He began preseason and the regular season super hot, fit in like a glove and all was right with the world.

Now, Ironically, because Casspi is not the guy we thought he was in the beginning, we are super excited to have Hamilton and are (maybe) passing on Granger.

I think it's a bad move.

 

Well Panda, let me ask you... Knowing everything you know about Morey... Do you REALLY believe seeing Hamilton play two games has any appreciable impact on Morey's decision to sign Granger?

Which makes more sense, Morey suddenly losing all perspective and patience or a poster spitballing the obvious likely hood Granger signs elsewhere and falsely claiming Hamilton is why?

 

We don't need him to get back to old form. We need him to come off the bench, score, defend & rebound. Morey's starting to worry me passing up all these polished veterans for unproven talent and the end of other team benches. It looks good now. But when playoff time comes and the team starts to panic like it did against the Clippers last nite, those veterans will come in handy. This might come back to bite us

 

You forget the 3 million hit for 6 vacant roster spots which brings it down to 11 mil. And seriously we are going to trade all of our draft picks for the next two years and not sign Papanooukis and let Hamilton walk this offseason. Because you have to all of that to get that 11 mil in cap space and keep all the players you want to keep. And I guarantee you Love will not take a pay cut. He will already be taking a paycut not to sign with Minny.

So count Love out. Even if you dump everyone you still might not have enough. His salary will start at around 17 mil. But if the cap is kind and we are fortunate enough to sign Love. We are in a minimum of 1 season rebuild mode because we have nothing. Less than what Miami started with. Maybe a couple of second round picks and a bunch old vets for the minimum. We even lose the MLE. And all that while Howards back gets another year older. Not a good plan to me. I'll be dead by the time we regroup from that mistake.

 

Give it up. Just let people hold onto the Love free agency fantasy.

 

Why do you believe Morey is passing on Granger? Have you considered that Granger may prefer to play elsewhere? What talent do you know Morey passed on?

 

That doesn't mean jack. 40% of the country is unemployed. I nice little stock market crash can kill everything. And when Mr. Coon can predict that please let me know because I would like to diversify in Savings Bonds and Gold.

 

Love would almost certainly be a S&T and I think the Rockets know it is a long shot and are not waiting on him.

 

There are many on this board who are convinced that Morey will make absolutely no moves so that he can preserve the space to sign Love as a free agent.

 

Then they are stupid. Morey hasn't made a move with his flexibility and assets because there hasn't been anything worth it yet... It will happen sooner than later. Love isn't signing in Houston as a free agent.