With my homer glasses on my perspective says 86-76. Take them off and it looks like 80-82. That was hard to type. Time to put em back on and say Go Stros.
LOL I will never be accused of being a statgeek. The other day there was a discussion about exactly how geeky the pythagorean thing actually is, or at least just the run differential part of it. (I feel nerdy even typing that.) Anyhow, I decided to track it daily on a spreadsheet. You know, delve into the nerd world. Currently, the pythagorean expectation, or whatever the hell it's called, suggests a 3-6 record. So I guess the conclusion is that the Astros' current collective sucktitude is statistically expected.
But their Pythagorean pct is .406, which suggests a 5-8 record now or 66-96 over 162 games. So, the conclusion is, they suck.
why won't it last? And if you're all about that, then our hitting is worse than expected "which won't last", which basically means we don't know what will happen. Depends on how far the SP falls and the hitting rises.
Why won't it last? Because we are relying on Wandy, Hampton, Paulino, and Russ Ortiz, that's why. The hitting is overrated. Pence and Tejada are not that good.
you could be absolutely right. my point was...looking at 13 games and projecting that out to compare it to what teams in the past have done over 162 is silly. it's nonsensical. and you don't have to look further than the current 137 win pace of the Marlins and the 27 win pace of the Nats to figure that out.
Tejada's OPS is significantly higher than it was in 08, but 2 years ago it was .799 (and better before that). Now it's .818, not that big a difference. He's due for some sort of bounce back after last year. Pence was .899 in 2007, he's .914 now. He's also due for a bounce back after last year's downturn. Meanwhile, Berkman and Lee should improve as the year goes, along with Matsui. Blum's the guy playing over his head. Paulino's only pitched 6 innings and Ortiz has a 6.23 ERA, so we're not exactly relying on either guy. Wandy had a good year last year and Hampton is a pleasant surprise, but Roy O and Valverde aren't pitching as well as they will later in the season. It all evens out.
this is stupid. Yes, I realize that's why the pitching won't last (more than likely) But for some reason, you can't take your own freaking logic and apply it to the other side of the ball. Just because it doesn't fit your argument, you're ignoring the same logic you're using!
Because the other side of the ball sucks just as bad. The pitching is overachieving. The hitting really isn't underachieving.
Why are they due for bouncebacks? Tejada is old and in decline. Pence hasn't shown he's a smart hitter who can work the count. Matsui is likely to be hurt for a bunch of games. I agree on Berkman and Lee, but outside of them, I don't see much. I mean we are relying on Paulino and Ortiz going forward. Roy O will be fine, but he probably is in slight decline. Valverde is good and Wandy is solid. But that is 3 guys out of a whole pitching staff. Yeah, it all evens out to a lot more losses than wins.
