DUDE! If I had a child as big as you and I was a woman... THAT WOULD HURT! Am I talking to any people here that has seen a kid that has come out?
I'm a HOMER. Who's pitching tomorrow? Hampton? uh, oh. Maybe we can score a heap of runs. Or maybe Astros get shutout by the great Ohlendorf.
come on, MM - the "formula" is using the most basic, rudimentary statistic in the sport: runs scored. last year, the astros’ opponents scored more runs than the astros. that’s it – that’s the “formula.” no acronyms, no calculators, no mom’s basements… it strongly suggests the 86 wins were an anomaly – not that they didn’t count (who even said that?), just that anyone expecting a similar performance this year is probably, likely going to be disappointed. (coughcoughdraytoncoughcough) they were the *only team in baseball* last year whose record was inversely proportional to their run differential. the cardinals finished with the same record scoring 67 more runs while allowing 18 less. heck - if you pour over the last 20 astro seasons (all the way back to 1990 – excuse me while i kill myself: it’s been 20 years since i graduated high school???!), in 17 of them (85%), the astros’ record and run differential matched (ie, they were outscored when posting a losing record; scored more when posting a winning record). in 1992, they were outscored by 60 runs and finished 81-81. in 1996, they were outscored by 39 runs and finished 82-80. last year, their run differential was 31 and they somehow scrapped together 86 wins: a pretty impressive accomplishment. further raining on the ’08 parade: their 712 total runs was their lowest total since 2005 (hard to believe, isn’t it? how did THAT team make it to the WS???). and before that, their lowest since 1992. so, again, using the most simplistic measurement of a team possible suggests 2008 was a fluke.
What are you talking about? The guy was 22-4 last year with a 2.90 ERA. EDIT: Sorry, I meant to say last decade, not last year.
Some of this thread feels like the South Park episode: "I'm not your friend, pal!" "I'm not your pal, friend!"
Truth is, I think the Astros have more All-Stars than any team in the league. Problem is, most of them were in the 90's.
First of all, I agree that the Astros were worse last year than their record suggests--although at the end of the day the W is the all-important stat. However: how much of that differential was built up early in the season, when they were really awful? What was the run differential after the ASB?
I understand all that Ric. I understand the value of the formula, and I'm not suggesting it's without merit...or isn't a good predictor. Read my comments in the context of the entire thread, and particularly in light of those I'm responding to. 2008 may have been a fluke. no question about it. i'm not telling you that because they won 86 last year, they must win 86 this year...or are even likely too. i'm suggesting we might want to use a bigger sample size than 7 games of a 162 game season before drawing too many conclusions, though.
Ric, I agree with everything you said.. however, kinda off the wall--I wonder if, given a bigger sample size and all the data, we could find a correlation between "teams that outperform run differential" and SOMEThing. Maybe "bullpen ERA under 3.50" or who knows what else might make sense? But something odd that we're not thinking of that actually makes it more likely to beat your Pythagorean projection.. someone get Morey into baseball
but that’s the beauty of baseball and why its numbers are so revered: it’s hard, playing 162 games/year, to be a fluke; your highs and lows are eventually going to balance out. for the record, though: after the ASB, they were just +13 while winning 42 of 66 games. prior to the ASB, they were -44 and 7 games under .500. how in the world do you win 64% of your games while outscoring your opponents by .2 runs/game? i mean, it was a giant, fun-filled fluke. my guess - w/o looking anything up - is that kaleidosky is right on target: they likely won a ton of close games thanks to a strong pen and a large amount of luck.
...assuming all other factors remain the same (players coming or going from injury or added via trade, for example). Dude! I didn't expect that you would look it up. Thanks! But look more closely at that: a minus 44 run differential in the fist half suggest some historically bad pitching and/or some slumps. Pence and Berkman were slumping. The pitching just sucked. Roy O started pretty badly, IIRC. In other words, the -44 run differential might be a bit "flukish" as well! The pendulum always swings, and when things began to normalize (Lance hit a little bit, RoyO woke up), perhaps it swung a little farther than it should have thanks in large part to our departed 3b's 4-week Babe Ruth impersonation. Most likely. Mr. Moehller may be at the flukish center of the fluke, along with our former 3b.
i did; the context was that the astros were a poorly-run team under drayton mcclane and would never win as long as he was the owner. and i agreed with every single one of your posts disputing that until you said this: we’re going on a tangent, i realize – but you created a completely different context by suggesting that someone had concocted some dense, impenetrable theorem to invalidate last season when, in reality, the only “formula” being used was a simple subtraction (which isn’t, technically, a formula at all): # of runs scored minus # of runs allowed. sorry, man – i’m honestly not trying to pick a fight. i’m likely projecting your comments onto to drayton and/or his brain trust and getting really sick to my stomach at the thought of them lighting cigars and celebrating 86 wins with the same cavalier attitude. as a fan, i enjoyed last season, fluke and all – no shame in that. but i expect our team’s management to be smarter and more analytical about it, to recognize its flaws and flukes and have a much greater perspective moving forward. unfortunately, I fear this team took a “stats be damned” attitude this winter and expected 86 wins to be a reasonable goal again this year.
To be fair, it actually is a formula. The projected win % by the pythagorean system is (Runs Scored)^2 / ((Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2) That's they way you get to 77 wins or whatever the expected W-L was for last year.
