Some Rockets relevant analysis from Basketballprospectus

No doubt, that sort of is what I am saying.

That stats are rigidly defined and should be looked at in a less rigid way because of the roles and other factors not accounted for...

Does that make sense?

And again, it all depends upon the person and the value they are placing on a particular statistic.....which is why stats will never be the be all, end all, but a tool in which to make assessments, and help with judgement.

DD

 

Wrong. Other than the month Lowry missed, he played most 4th quarter minutes against the starting PG's because Brooks couldnt guard them.

 

Ah, more perception arguments.

Peachy !

DD

 

there's no use guys.

 

Do you really believe those factors can be controlled or modeled?

 

That makes sense. While stats are rigid, in a sense, analysis doesn't have to be. I agree with you that context (role, who you're playing with, what portion of the game you are on the floor) should be taken into account. But I don't think these players do completely different things, and on that basis stats should be thrown out. Because even if roles are different, if two players are playing the same position on the same team there are naturally many things that they will both be expected to do.

 

Thrown out?

No, no....I am not saying that, I like stats as much as the next guy.

I am just saying that when anyone views the stats, we should do so with a more seasoned and trained eye, and a realization that there are factors that are not accounted for, that would adjust the analysis.

Anyone using stats to just say, this guy is better than that guy is not accounting for the full picture, IMO.

It is why Morey has baskeball people in his group, they all get a say, you can never take out the human element....you have to consider both, IMO.

DD

 

No, I mean it's not like guys like Dan Rosenbaum have been making a living doing it for the past 6 years.

 

I actually agree with the bolded portion of this post, because I think in basketball most sophisticated statistical models are generally more useful in accounting how players perform in situations, rather than relative to one another.

However, I will say that ignoring or dismissing those stats that don't back up your perceptions/preconceived notions is not a good idea. Which is what I think you're sort of doing.

 

If that is what it sounds like than I am doing a poor job of getting my point across.

I value statistics as much as the next guy, but I also value what a player is being asked to do, and with whom they are playing with and against.

I love stats......but to me there is more to consider in the game of basketball, much more than say baseball.

DD

 

I feel like the stats are underselling Brooks and overselling Lowry. There really isn't a metric for standing four feet behind the arc and spacing the floor so doubles on Yao are very difficult for the other team.

 

Last year's statistics really should be divided into Pre/Post Kevin Martin eras. When comparing Lowry and Brooks last year, I think we agreed that before the trade deadline when Lowry came on with the second unit, he had capable scorers (Landry, Budinger) to pass to while Brooks was surrounded by defensive specialists (Ariza, Battier, Hayes). This allowed Lowry the luxury of not having to create off the dribble.

As i recall, the second unit was also given free rein to run and gun while the starters ran primarily half court sets. Maybe this was due to Lowry's ability to create/manage the fast break better than Brooks, but i think it's more likely Adelman just wanted to use the younger legs to outrun the opponents bench.

After the trade Kevin Martin entered the line up as a scoring threat and Ariza certainly became less of a liability. I think a comparison of their numbers after the trade deadline would be more... fair ?

 

But I think a lot of these people that are associated with the "advanced stats" movement in basketball understand that very well. And actually what they are trying to do is come up with better metrics that help capture some of those other considerations that don't come across well with conventional stats. Sam Fisher pointed out adjusted +/-, which is one such example of that. Daryl Morey and his staff, I think, are at the forefront of analyzing these other aspects of the game -- e.g. teamwork, context-based performance evaluation, tracking situations.

Its on this basis that Lowry is thought so highly of. You say that Lowry is benefiting from the players he plays with. OK, but the counter would be that those other players benefit tremendously from playing with Lowry. Either way, Lowry was an integral part of whatever success we had last year. Someone looking at a boxscore might not realize that, but if you watch the game and look at some of the "advanced" stats, its hard not to notice.

 

Stats are cool, but its not like the guys that come up with the numbers are watching the games or coaches tape. I guess their are stats for who is in the game,ppp,and all that stuff,but it doesnt take in account how the opposing teams are defending the particular player. 20-10 from david lee is very different than the same from duncan.

Since the last playoff run, brooks is viewed as the biggest threat. Teams tilt to contain him. They scheme against brooks. The fact all this took place and he still performed well despite playing most of his minutes with 2.5 zeros.

 

I totally agree with all of that, and think Lowry is a great addition to the Rockets and adds massive flexibility to the team.

I think statistics are extremely useful, I just don't think they tell the entire story.

Some people say the Rockets are a 42-40 team, a lottery team......but that doesn't tell the entire story does it?

Exactly Leeb, exactly.

DD

 

I think it's partially what they are asked to and partially the different parts of their game that they are good at. Both bring a ton to the table, but it's not the same things. Both will be able to show more results based on what other Rockets are on the floor, who they are playing against, and what strategy RA is trying to follow.

I imagine the Rockets are not taking the stats and trying to figure out who the better player is. They are breaking it down further then that and determining how they can get the most out of each in different situations. Just as an example, I see Brooks being less effective overall with Yao on the floor since he won't have the ball in his hands as much. At the same time, Brooks can make Yao more effective since he will help spread the floor. Lowry can provide more intangibles then Brooks when Yao is on the floor, but yet he won't spread the floor for Yao. He'll also get to the line and essentially get Yao more free throws.

 

I understand the limitations of stats, i posted the ppp's cause it's interesting. what it DOES tell us, is the production for the roles we had our players in. we got offensive production off the bench from chase, but he wasn't very effective defensively. this basically show that he got scored on alot. let me show you the types of stats they have, using bud as an example.

offense



defense



edit: while this isn't by any means the be all end all of stats, it does show strengths and weaknesses. we can see that bud was strong on spot up plays, which we would expect. teams need players like budinger and battier. jj redick is one of the best in the league at this role.

basically, we can isolate things like how well brooks does on iso's and P&R vs lowry. or martin. etc.

all stats from synergy sports

 

From 2009 onward, every thread that mentions Lowry or Brooks must inevitably become a battle between posters who prefer one or the other.

Is it wrong to have both?

I have noticed, though, that Brooks has only continued to play better, yet earn more fans eager to get him unseated from the PG spot. People are just restless and always want something shiny and new. Suffice it to say, in regards to Lowry: back-up quarterback effect.