It would be interesting to see the +/- of both when they are on the floor and their per 48 min averages to compare them properly.
While I am not a Juwan lover, you are clearly a Juwan hater. Are you saying that Howard's offensive worth is just TWO POINTS? How many offensive rebounds and points does he give up on the other end then? Be objective. Howard is obviously a much better offensive player than Hayes. Hayes only scores on put back or interior dump under the basket. Howard, on the other hand, can actually have plays called for him, either posting up when Yao is not there, or a PnR with TMac or Alston.
I think you are the one who needs to be objective. Please go back and see how many times Howard has actually converted on plays when he has had to initiate offense. It is a terrible %. His FG% is in mid 40s% only because of the jumpers he makes when he is guarded by no one. If you dont believe me, go ahead an keep a tally for rest of the games this season. Calculate the % on open jumpers, and then calculate the % when he posts up. It's almost a guaranteed miss when he makes a post move. As for PnR. Once again open jumpers off of pick and rolls and guards feeding him. I have seen pick and rolls with Hayes where he has rolled to basket several times and make successful plays. Whats the difference if Howard hits the open jumper and Hayes drives to the basket and scores? Last I checked, both counted as 2 points. Hayes is also a better rebounder than Juwan which means he will get more offensive rebounds too. Last word..... Juwans's FG% 46% Hayes's FG% 53% Nice objectivity there on your part when trying to present Howard as a better scorer.
See this is where I don't think the other side is being objective. Hayes is shooting greater than 50% is Juwan? They are just different offensive players. Hayes is more about cutting to the basket and passing and J-ho is a mid range jump shooter. I think J-ho would be better off the bench.....and Hayes works better with Yao. DD
Last word...... Eddie Curry's FG% .532 Yao Ming's FG% .508 Yeah, stats don't lie, do they? Curry is clearly a better scorer than Yao. If he was on the Rockets, we should start him and dump that worthless Yao. Look, I am not denying Hayes is a good player and I am as pissed as you that he is not playing more. But to say that he is even equal to Howard's offensive worth is silly.
I have this sinking feeling that the Rox won't / don't have designs of re-signing Hayes long-term this off-season. Maybe this is why JHo is continuously shoved down our throats. Barring any trades, we are certain to have Stro and Howard on our roster for a few more years. Hayes seems like he may be the odd man out. It's unfortunate really, because of the 3, I enjoy Chuck's game the most. He plays hard. He's got high basketball IQ and a hungry athleticism. There's quite a few all-stars that are supposedly too small (short) for their positions. It would be a real shame to lose this guy. I don't hate Juwan in the slightest. He's got a fairly money jumper, but that's unfortunately about it. I appreaciate him being a great teammate. He has a lot of heart, but his energy level is way down. He's old ... It happens. I'd just rather see a guy like Webber work to shoot over Hayes rather than run circles around JHo. And don't get me started on rebounding after Webber's misses. It's painful because I really just don't understand. I really just don't get it. If Van Gundy or anybody could just offer us some type of understanding, it'd be cool. I could go with it. But at this point, it just doesn't make sense.
Juwan Howard on the court (1762 minutes) Rockets score: 87.83 points per 48min Opponents score: 93.00 points per 48min -5.17 points per 48min Juwan Howard off the court (1041 minutes) Rockets score: 94.02 points per 48min Opponents score: 88.71 points per 48min +5.31 points per 48min So we've been roughly 10 points/48min better when Howard hasn't been on the court, versus when he has been on the court. But this includes numbers for the entire season, and Howard had to play a lot of minutes early on without Yao and McGrady. So, to be fair, we should only compare the +/- of both players since 1/18. While still tedious to do, we can use the information at Popcornmachine.net to help figure this out. So, since 1/18: Juwan Howard on court (682 minutes ) -4.36 points/48min Chuck Hayes on court (316 minutes) +10.63 points/48min Furthermore, we can look at how many games we were a net positive with Howard (or Hayes) on the court, how many games we were a net negative with them on the court, and how many games the net differential was 0. This is like an individual win-loss record, since a player can't be blamed for how the team being outscored when he's off the court. Juwan Howard: positive in 8 games, negative in 10 games, draw in 2 games Chuck Hayes: positive in 14 games, negative in 5 games, draw in 1 game Basically, since 1/18, we've been a sub-500 team with Howard, and a very good team with Hayes. And yet, Howard is playing twice as many minutes. Now, let's look at their individual stats (per 48 minutes). Again, I'm only concerned with games since 1/18. Juwan Howard (since 1/18) 32.4 minutes per game 18.7 points/48min 2.9 off rebs/48min 6.6 def rebs/48min 3.2 assists/48min 2.5 turnovers/48min 1.4 steals/48min 0.4 blocks/48min 47.0 fg% (7.9 / 16.8) 86.3% ft% (2.9 / 3.3) Chuck Hayes 15.8 minutes per game 14.6 points/48min 5.5 off rebs/48min 10.9 def rebs/48min 1.1 assists/48min 0.9 turnovers/48min 2.0 steals/48min 1.2 blocks/48min 53.4 fg% (5.8 / 10.8) 71.4 ft% (3.0 / 4.3) Hayes is a far better rebounder on both ends, doesn't turn the ball over, gets more blocks and steals, and is a more efficient scorer. Howard scores more points as a consequences of taking more shots, he gets more assists, and he shoots better from the line (though he doesn't get there as often, despite having more touches). If we wanted to measure their value through these individual stats, I think Hayes still has a significant edge. But, more importantly, the team flat out plays better with Hayes since he came to the club than Howard. I think the evidence is overwhelming. We need to make a distinction. Howard is a more skilled scorer and passer. This is quite obvious. But skill doesn't necessarily translate to positive impact on the offensive end. There are other intangibles (setting picks, moving without the ball, running the court) that can also significantly help offenses which Chuck Hayes excels at. And the numbers show that as a team we have been no worse off offensively (in terms of points scored per possession) with Hayes than without him. We are scoring 107 points per 100 possessions with Hayes on the court. Conversely, we score only 100.4 points per 100 possession with Howard on the court. Relative to the rest of the league, we would be ranked 16/30 in offensive efficiency with Chuck Hayes, but dead last (30/30) with Howard.
durvasa great great stuff! The little Hayes has had the opportunity to pass he has shown good IQ. It is apparent Juwan is much more integrated into the offense and comfortable playing with the other guys than Hayes. BUT Hayes just needs time - at least a good 12 mpg, and more when he plays well. What he and Yao were working last night was GREAT! He is a rook, has some learning, fouls a bit much and gets hit by the refs a little too often cause he is a rook, and sometimes cause he is trying! BUT the foundation and the athletic skills are good. His rebounding positioning is obviously 100% better than Juwan's. I see him places under the basket on ORB's I never remember seeing Juwan! Maybe Barry can coach both of them - Hayes to shoot a nice 10 footer, and Juwan to put some arc in his shots.
Nope. Like I said, Juwans offensive game is hitting an open jump shot. That's it. If anything, Juwan's offensive game is handicapped.
I prepared some charts to compare the plus/minus of our three PFs - Howard, Swift, and Hayes. Notice that the minutes they're currently getting in Van Gundy's rotation is just about the opposite of what this data shows it should be. It includes the games where they didn't play (Howard's missed two, Swift has missed several at various times during the season, and Hayes has had a few DNP-CDs). I just zeroed out the per-game values for those games. 5-game moving average looks at the last 5 game they played. The per-game +/- isn't adjust per 48 minutes; it says exactly how much Rockets outscored the opponent each game with that player on the court. The moving average is adjusted per 48 minutes, however. Juwan Howard Stromile Swift Chuck Hayes
he isn't what he used to be but calling him washed up is just dead wrong. he's almost averaging 20/10.
