So my friends it has come to this if true....2 top 10 picks or howard?

Top 4? I don't know about that. The Thunder are easily gonna be in the Top 2 next season. The Spurs will be a year older, but that didn't seem to matter this season, so count on them being Top 3(unless that Parker eye injury gets serious). The Lakers will also be a year older, but as long as they have Kobe, they're a Top 4 threat. The Mavs could vault back to the Top 4 if they land Deron Williams. The Clippers will have another year together to build on this past season's success. And Memphis was the 4th seed this season despite not having Zach Randolph for most of it, so they'll be a player next year as well.

If the Rockets keep Dragic and fill out the rest of their roster along with trading for Dwight Howard, maybe they crack the Top 4. But it won't be easy, and frankly I still don't think that's enough to make him want to stay. Unless they make it as far as the Western Conference Finals, I think he'd show no hesitation in walking.

 

Picks

I'd rather take a chance on Drummond than get Howard. Even if Howard does stay long term and does stay healthy it's gunna be hard to fall in love with him like we all fell in love with Hakeem. I'm not saying Drummond will ever be as skilled as Hakeem but it'd be much more fulfilling to build a franchise around a guy who's been with you since day 1 than a guy who's a total ass-hat.

 

Damn!! Now we have three picks! People we can rebuild now!!!

 

I don't see who's in the 5-8 range that has franchise player written on them. I would love Thomas Robinson - I personally see him being the realization of everything folks were thinking Marcus Morris might be (but has almost no chance of sniffing).

I think Beal is a fantastic choice at SG (but not a guy that immediately turns a team around)

I think MKG will be a very good player...but possibly more in the vein of Iguodala.

Barnes also nice...but as a guy complimenting a true first option.

Lilliard has game, but we're bringing back Dragic....and I'm not in love with shooting PGs.

Waiters is also a good prospect...but franchise player?

Lamb...meh

Then you've got Drummond, Leonard, Zeller, Melo....all could become starting centers but all are a dice roll to pan out. If I were a GM, I'd hedge my bets by trying to nab two of those 4. Ups the odds that you'll come away with one guy that works out, and a best case scenario of a two-headed monster in the post. But you don't do that at 5 AND 8.

I still like Sullinger - I see him giving you everything Scola does and a little bit extra. But I haven't seen the MRIs.

I still flip those picks for Dwight nine times out of ten. With all the issues last year, he still put up 20-14. He's still, at worst, the second best center in the game and a top 8 player overall. He's one of a dozen true bonafide franchise guys that keep a team in contention no matter what's around him.

He'd instantly play with a better surrounding cast than he's had since going to the Finals (and arguably better than that one).

I remain unconvinced that he had that surgery because he was unable to play, rather than opting to get it done immediately to shut down on SVG. Too coincidental.

And back surgery (like knee surgery) isn't one size fits all. Howard had microscopic discectomy - as far as back surgeries go, this is as close as you get to being analogous to a scope.
http://www.spineuniverse.com/treatments/surgery/lumbar-discectomy-minimally-invasive-spine-surgery

Someone mentioned two back surgeries for a ruptured disc - this isn't remotely on that level.

My concern is not that he will be unable to play because of the back - if I have a worry, it's that he pouts over not getting his way and uses the back as an excuse to sit out the season for free agency. And I do worry about that.

But if he does leave us high and dry, we clear a wealth of cap space* and we finally force Les' hand and go deep into the lottery.


Rolling all the way back to the picks - I'd honestly (honestly) rather sit with 14-16-18 than move up for 5-8. You could potentially nab Zeller - PJIII - K Marshall and kick off a tremendous youth movement. I'm admittedly a Marshall nut - he'd be an ideal balance to Goran (all passing vs all shooting). I'd be intrigued at a Motiejunas-PJIII tandem at PF. Zeller is a safe pick, he's got back up written all over him, but that might be enough next to Camby.

* Turk better not be part of the package if we hand them two top 10 picks. If no one else can match our package, they have no leverage to force him on us.

 

It depends a little on how much we're giving up for the #5 and #8. I'm assuming Lowry and the 3 picks are gone. At least one more asset would have to go. How much of Dragic/Martin/Lee/Scola/Camby can we keep to complement Howard? If we lose more than one and can't replace with a similar veteran, we won't have the firepower to make any noise next year and have any shot at getting Howard to re-up. I suppose if we pay heavily for the 2 lotto picks, we should keep them; if we get a a bargain, we can gamble on trading them away.

 

I have an assload of work to do, and this is all very distracting.

 

...that depends entirely upon who is available with those picks. I think if you have the chance to pull Bradley Beale or Thomas Robinson you do it - otherwise you trade the picks if your choosing between Kidd Gilchrest, Drummond, and Harrison Barnes. I would be willing to bet Morey thinks he can score some lotto talent with later picks so he probably packages the lotto picks to someone else(Bobcats for the #2 or Orlando for DHo) and magically ends up with a late first rounder to pull a classic Morey 'good value with a late pick' move.

The Dwight Howard trade is obviously the most talked about one here but I wouldn't be surprised if Morey is using the talk to leverage something else on the side - maybe a 3 or 4 teamer, maybe even a different trade altogether. I'm sure Houston would love Howard but you have to assume Morey is making calls to every team in the league to see what teams are tempted with between picks & Lowry and I'm sure someone will offer up something interesting at some point.

...personally I would love to find a way to get Eric Gordon and Dwight Howard on the same team. Gordon is quietly one of the league's best scorers and paired up with DHo they could be a legit force in the West.

 

Totally. This happens every year.