[Sloan Sports Conference] How to discourage tanking

Based on system proposed by the truehoop commenter (I'm calling it the "tiered lottery system"), here are the probabilities I calculated:



I like this. You have no advantage over other teams in the same "tier", where your tier is based on your ability to advance into and through the playoffs. And overall, the probabilities are much more flattened compared to the current system, where draft position is too closely determined by win-loss record even for the lottery teams.

 

Also the problem with the current system is that these teams are putting horrible products on the floor.

It is in the NBA's best interest to flatten out the lotto odds more. More competitive games means selling more tickets. If the NBA wants to continue to see half of it's teams with empty stadiums then they will continue this current lottery.

I hope Silver changes it because Stern cares nothing for parity. I remember them asking on ASW if he'd ever give teams draft compensation for losing players like Dwight and he literally laughed at the idea. For Stern it's perfectly fine if the same five teams have a shot to win every decade and the NBA out of all the other American sports has the least amount of parity.

 

I like it. The only caveat I can see is that teams might want to miss the playoffs rather than making the 8th seed if they have very little chance of beating the #1 seed.

 

I think it's the best one out there.

 

Just lock in a draft order next year based on wins, and then this order stays but the no.1 picker becomes the last pick, the year after, and each place moves up the order each year and so on.

So every team gets their turn eventually

sorted

 

This was something I thought about too. It's probably the fairest of them all.

Another proposal that makes sense is to count records of the past 5 years, rather than just one year. So you'd have to tank for a long time in order to get the #1 pick.

 

add to this, if you get the #1 pick this year, the highest you can pick the next year is #10.

the list goes as follows.
#2 highest possible pick the following year is 9
#3 highest possible pick the following year is 8
#4 highest possible pick the following year is 7
#5 highest possible pick the following year is 6

It prevents teams from getting multiple high lotto picks in consecutive years like OK, MN and others.

 

Hmm, so the difference between being the 9th seed and 8th seed is a 0% and 35.7% chance of getting top pick?

 

What about the teams that truly, horribly suck. Don't they deserve a top 2 pick even though they went say 2-12 after elimination?

 

I like this but think first round exit playoff teams shouldn't be allowed to earn a 6-10 pick. Consider the Spurs, who were knocked out of the first round last year. Or a #5 seed, who loses in the first round, but is really a above average squad...potentially the 9th best team in the league. Should that team have a chance to get a #6 seed? I don't think so.

I think the odds need to be changed a bit, but otherwise definitely like.

 

Why not? Why can't a playoff team get a high draft pick?

I don't see any reason to penalize teams more for making the playoffs than they are in that proposal. In fact, I'm leaning towards giving playoff teams a shot at a top 5 pick as well (albeit a lesser chance than the non-playoff teams).

 

Yes, and now that I think about it that might discourage teams from wanting to make the playoffs or win a round.

Here's another idea which I think is a simple and effective way of doing it.

The top 10 picks will be chosen randomly from the pool of non-playoff teams. Win-loss record does not factor in among those teams. Then, picks 11-26 will be allotted at random to the playoff teams. Finally, 4 unlucky non-playoff teams get stuck with the last 4 spots in the first round.

So, a non-playoff team has a 71% chance of getting a pick in the top 10, but also a 29% of getting on the bottom 4 picks. Meanwhile playoff teams will be locked out of a top 10 pick, but also out of the bottom 4. Their chances at every pick is identical.

So, bad teams will tend to get more help from the draft, but its no guarantee and there's really not much incentive to purposely missing the playoffs when there's a nearly 30% chance that you'll get one of the bottom picks as a result.

What do people think?

 

I like the idea, but it seems like it places a lot of emphasis on luck and chance.

I was thinking along the lines of a "lottery playoffs".

Basically the non-playoff teams will be seeded, like the playoffs. The 9th seed will play against the lowest seed, the 10th seed will play against the second lowest seed.

Like the playoffs, teams will win series to get the highest lottery pick position, or the highest percentage of acquiring the top lottery pick position.

That way, fans will still have a reason to watch their teams win during playoff period even when their team is not in the playoffs. It also rewards teams like the Rockets.

The only problem I see is that teams that are truly terrible will have a very small chance of getting the absolute top picks.

 

Never considered a "lottery playoffs". I like that idea.

 

Since the goal is to discourage tanking, and nobody would tank in the playoffs, you really don't need to reward playoffs winning. The winning itself should be reward enough. On the other hand, you also want to retain some parity intended for the traditional draft order in the first place.

What about this.

• All first round playoffs losers and all non-playoffs teams get equal chances for #1 to #22.
• All 2nd round losers get equal chances for #23 to #26.
• #27 and #28 go to the conference finals losers.
• #29 goes to finals loser and #30 to the championship winner.

 

Well said.

 

Bad teams would be bad forever if this happens.

 

Bad teams can become good teams without hitting the lottery jackpot, if they are diligent and smart. If you do that, the system should give you a chance to land a big star to propel you to contender status.

In the current system, all you have to do is be bad and you are rewarded a good chance of getting a franchise player.

 

I agree.

I absolutely hate how a loser's attitude is rewarded with the best young players.

I also absolutely hate how this guarantees that the best young players have to waste so much of their talent in a crap hole.

Just look at John Wall in the Wizards, utter waste of talent.

If teams want a good lottery pick, they need a smart and diligent front office. It's just way too easy to tank. There should never be an easy way out of craptastic team management.

 

This actually makes too much sense but...basketball reasons.