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[SI] The Unexpected Greatness of Framber Valdez

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by lnchan, Sep 15, 2022.

  1. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    You can't count on future sustained success or health for young pitchers.... you just can't. Having rotations like the 90's Braves did are the unicorns of unicorns.

    You can also never have too much pitching. Even if it costs a premium. Teams not only have regular season success with it... but most importantly, elite pitching carries teams in the post-season.

    If the Astros aren't developing them, they're going to trade prospects for them (presuming they're in contention). Its much nicer to have a window extended thanks to the farm system finally getting around to graduating legit starters (vs. previously they were churning out MVP hitters).
     
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  2. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    What type of contract would you all be comfortable giving Framber? He currently has 3 more years on his contract through his age 31 season.

    Would you be comfortable giving a 6 year deal this off-season that ties him to the team through his age 34 season? At maybe $25-$30 million AAV? Not really sure what range AAV we’d be talking about, but figured $25-$30 million is roughly about where it would be.
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I’d give Framber a $80M/5yr deal with award and innings incentives that can get him up to $100M. And I’d be on putting him a team/player combo option for a 6th year. He will probably earn ~$30M-$40M in arbitration and at this rate will easily be a $30M/yr pitcher in his first few years of free agency. So buying out 2 free agent years for $40M-$50M is a solid value for both sides.
     
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  4. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard
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    What do you mean? Tim Redding, Wade Miller, Carlos Hernandez... and Roy Oswalt dominated the NL Central for a generation. The notion that we can just trade Hunter Brown for outfield help (see the thread on postseason roster) because we have too much starting pitching is asinine.
     
  5. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard
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    Give him all of Keuchel's money.
     
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  6. Qan

    Qan Member

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    Not even close to that range. Around $20mil AAV for 5 years.
     
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  7. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    He might be worth $25m-$30m per year in his early FA years, but those 3 remaining years of control are arbitration years. Arb years are heavily suppressed salaries. For reference, Gerrit Cole got $24m total for his 3 arb years.

    This is a very reasonable estimation.
     
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  8. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Sandy Alcantara is the comp I would use. Then use McCullers for the high extreme and settle in the middle.

    Alcantara signed this year= 2 yrs younger and 1st arb year instead of 2nd. But both were/are at 3 remaining yrs before FA.

    5 yrs/$56M 6th yr opt. $21M

    Framber starts a bit higher due to his arb clock.

    McCullers had finished arbitration and was an upcoming FA.

    5yrs/$85M

    The middle is 5 / $70.5M (2023-2027) and buys out 2 FA years. Sounds like an Astros move.
     
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Two people kept saying to be patient, that the pitching was coming in a couple years - Luhnow and even more so, the Astros current cross checker, Oz Ocampo; who scouted and signed almost all of them.
     
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  10. PhiSlammaJamma

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    Framber needs to dominate a playoff. That's all that is missing right now before we can entitle him the dude and break the bank.
     
  11. Yordan The Great

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    Framber going for the record 25th consecutive (single season) QS vs Oakland tomorrow. That's a terrible hitting lineup so I fully expect it to happen. Then we'll see if he can get to where no one has ever gone before, 27 straight in his very last start of the regular season. If he does, he'll finish 2nd in Cy Young voting behind JV.
     
  12. Qan

    Qan Member

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    We know Valdez won't get 2nd in Cy even if he broke the QS record. Media pundits already trying to circle jerk around that dude in cws, whatever his name, so he can somehow beat Verlander for Cy. Hell, some are saying Otahni should be ahead of Valdez for Cy....drives me crazy.
     
  13. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Framber is having a phenomenal year, no doubt, but he legit is not the 2nd best starter in the AL. Fangraphs did a breakdown of the AL Cy Young candidates from the Kevin Gausman perspective. The only thing Framber is leading among Cy Young contenders is innings. He's 2nd to Verlander in wins. In most everything else, he's pretty handily beaten by Dylan Cease (White Sox) and Shane McClanahan (Rays) in addition to Verlander.

    Ohtani has a legit argument to be ahead of Framber. Similar ERA, much better fielding independent stats, higher K%.

    Fandom amuses me. Why can't we just be happy he's a top 5 cy young pitcher this year? Why y'all gotta find something to be unhappy with this absolute beauty of a season he's throwing.
     
    #33 xcrunner51, Sep 17, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2022
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  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Framber has been awesome but Dylan Cease has a good chance of winning the Cy Young
     
  15. sealclubber1016

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    I don't disagree that he's clearly behind Verlander, and probably 5th if I were voting at this exact moment.

    Ohtani has almost 40 less innings with basically a similar ERA and WHIP. He does not have an argument, I don't give a damn what the projection stats say. I don't think he's far behind anybody except Verlander right now, the other 3 are one bad start away from being coin toss with Framber.

    Flashy K rates mean nothing when I'm voting for who was best at preventing people from scoring.
     
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  16. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    I dunno man, as Nook said Cease is having a Cy Young level season. If he didn't have two turd starts in May (giving up 7 and 6 ER's respectively), he'd be the clear Cy Young favorite over even JV.

    His total season line is IMHO unquestionably better than Framber's, but if you at his run since he gave up 7 ER on 5/28 he's been otherworldly.

    In his last 20 starts: 120.1IP, 1.35 ERA, 10-5 record, 10.7K/9. (Advanced stats: ERA- 35, FIP -72)

    Or his 11 start run from 5/28 to 8/11: 82IP, 0.66 ERA, 8-3 record, 11.3K/9 (Advanced stats: ERA- 19, FIP- 66). He gave up 1 or less runs in 11 straight starts.

    Just an absolute monster. Shame that the White Sox **** the bed as a team this year.
     
  17. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    Framber’s issues have always been between the ears.
     
  18. PhiSlammaJamma

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    I don't see how Cease can win. He's on a terrible team, he's only 14-7, and the two bad starts are part of the painting. Verlander also has name recognition and contributed to a 100 win season. While a lot of that is unanalytical, voter's will still see those things as part of the deciding factor. Verlander should run away with it.
     
  19. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    If that was directed at me, my last post was not to imply that Cease should win this year. I think he's still behind Verlander, pretty firmly if JV finishes the season strong.

    My point was that '22 Cease is having a very strong season, better than what Robbie Ray put up last year when he won the AL Cy Young. Cease would be the winner if Verlander weren't pitching this year.
     
  20. Amshirvani

    Amshirvani Contributing Member

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    over JV?
     

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