SI.Com-Rox one of five teams that have taken a step backwards this offseason

Juwan shot nearly 46% which is not great for a PF, but not horrible either especially for someone who shoots a majority of top of the arc jumpers.

And he played less than 32 mpg, not the 35 that you are quoting, stats boy.

PF Stats

He is not the best, but certainly servicable....

And good enough for the Rockets to win with.

DD

 

I completely agree that JVG and CD hated Swift. I do not deny that the Rockets had to cover up for Swift a lot defensively. Swift does not play team ball. Swift does not play the game the way CD and JVG want. The offense and defense ran smoother with Howard in the game, but the NBA doesn't award wins for style points. The NBA is about one stat, the Scoreboard.

Howard did play a lot against the opposing teams' starters and proved he was not up to the challenge. Swift proved when he played PF, the Rockets scored more than their opponents. Maybe Swift is just incredibly lucky. Maybe the Rockets would have completely suck with Swift starting, but Howard definitely proved last year that the Rockets should have tried everyone else on the roster as the PF.

I've watched the Rockets. I've looked at the stats. The only thing Howard does effectively is stay with his man. I cringe when I see Howard with the ball because I know he's going to be stupid and shoot a low percentage shot. I cheer when Howard makes a 16 footer with my heart, but my head knows he's wasted so many possessions taking the same shot.

JVG and CD give Howard a pass on missed shots because he takes shots in the flow of the offense. What good is it taking a shot in the flow of the offense when the shot is less effective than TMac creating his own shot with little time on the clock? I would rather have a group of individuals incapable of playing team ball win than have a team execute plays correctly and lose. This wouldn't work in the playoffs, but Howard doesn't work in the Regular Season.

Neither player should play big minutes for a playoff team. Swift at least could play less worse defense than Howard at center.

 

The thing is Joe Joe and what Sam is failing to recognize when his head is down in the stat sheet is that Juwan positioning on the Rockets takes him AWAY from rebounding position, especially on offense.

He is at the top of the key on offense and thus not in position to rebound the ball, now on defense he is on the low block depending upon whom he is guarding, so even though 6.7rpg is not all that great, it is servicable when you have others picking up the slack.

DD

 

F/G% for Rasheed Wallace during his time in Det:
.431
.440
.430

RPG during that same time period:
6.8
8.2
6.8

He averaged 34mpg each year.

I think we can all agree that Rasheed was pivitol both offensively and defensively for the Pistons the last three seasons. Rasheed is damn good and effects the game very positively.

I am only pointing this out to give you an example of how statistics very rarely...if ever show the whole story. Would you like to have Rasheed playing on the Rockets?

 

Crash,

Don't use stats to back it up. Right Sam?

They don't tell the whole story, I mean Raweed is at the 3pt line a lot of times on offense, like Juwan is at the top of the key.

DD

 

Some other notable power forwards that have lower f/g percentages than JHo:

Al Harrington
Zack Randolph
Antoine Walker
Chris Webber
Troy Murphy
Rasheed Wallace

 

NO WAY JHO is a more productive player this coming year then ever before for the Rox. You seemed to forget how bad he sucked for us his first year here with a healthy TMac and Yao, as the third scoring option till Mike James came around.

How does he provide a decent compliment. By doing what. Averaging 1 point for every three minutes he playes. Getting about 5 blocks a year. I hope you werent one of the ones complaining about Mo Taylor when Mo averaged very similar numbers in points and rebounds. I hope you werent one of the ones complaining about Mo's rebounding numbers from the PF spot.


JHo is an albatross of a starting PF. As evident to anyone who can look at his slow feet, poor rebounding, lack of blocked shots, and soft play. Is that really what we want from the PF spot?


On a side note, Its so unproductive to look at Chuck Hayes' per 48 minute rebound stats. I believe that Loren Woods has a higher per 48 rebound stats while averaging similar playing time then Hayes. USELESS stat.

 

I hate 48 minute stats...unless they support my argument.

 

Define productive?

All I am saying is that he hit a good percentage get a few rebounds and keep the defense honest.

He does not need to be the 3rd scoring option just be a threat. He is a decent complimentary player at this stage of his career, nothing more, IMHO.

Juwan is on the decline, no doubt about it, and is not that great of a player, he is a SERVICABLE player and you can hide his deficencies when you have Tmac and Yao and Battier on the court, he does not need to be a great player, just do the little things, stay in front of your man, make an occasional shot and rebound a little bit.

DD

 

How good the Rockets will be next season? It depends on:

1. Health of T-Mac, Yao, Sura - 85%
2. Offseason personel moves -15%

That's the reality, when discussing the offseason we are only talking about 15% factor. Have T-Mac, Yao, and Sura healthy and any "perfect" vs "worst" combination of offseason moves would give you +/- 2 wins. Have your best offseason moves, whatever they may be (getting Mike James or whatever) and T-Mac playing 80 vs 50 games and we weare talking +/- 15-18 games.

Having said this, I actually like our additions and am reasonably optimistic. I have been down on CD when everybody was praising him, but I am sort of fine with him this year:

1. Shane Battier vs Rudy Gay/Stro: solid move. In terms of passion for the game Gay is worse than Eddie Griffin. He may "get it" eventually, but for sure it won't be during his rookie contract. Stro was a #2 pick only because this was the worst draft in NBA history. He's got some talent and we were hoping a change in scenery would do him good. Didn't happen, move on. Shane is a proven winner, clutch, solid pro, smart player, you won't believe how much he brings to the table.

Much better player than Jim Jackson

2. Spanoulis. I have a feeling that this guy will be an NBA player. From whatever clips I have seen, the guy has passion for the game.

much better player than Bostjan Nackbar

3. Snyder. Nice move. The guy was a starter for a surprising Hornets team. Many players in the NBA make the leap in their third year. The guy has shown steady improvement.

Much better player than Bogans, potentially as good as Jim Jackson

4. Novak. I like the pick, although playing time may not come this year.

Better player than Piatkowski, potentially as good as Jon Barry

So, compared to the team that started 04/05 we have much better complimentary players.

Sura, Head, Snyder, Battier, Novak, V-Span >>> Lue, Ward, Jackson, Nachbar, Piatkowski

 

So basically...Howard's top of the key shot is a low percentage play, he's taking himself out of rebounding position, and he never forces contact. Howard is still a serviceable rebounder and plays adequate man to man defense.

On FG%, it is much better to look at 2pt% and 3pt% separately. Walker, Murphy, Harrington, and Wallace are all better inside the arc than Howard. They also know how to draw fouls better. Their ability to hit the three stretches defenses somewhat.

Webber and Randolph...if there are worse starting PFs than Howard, these guys are it. Low 2pt% + low FTM + High 2pt FGA is the triangle of death for PFs. Howard only has two and a half.

 

What you two don't realize is that the stats do back it up.

Wallace is still a much more efficient scorer than Howard because he gets 3's and gets to the line a lot more. Likewise Wallace is not a cypher on defense like Howard is and overall does more on the court.

This is why he had a much higher PER rating than Howard, as well as a much higher Roland Rating, etc. - and more importantly his team gets better with him on the court, not worse, like Howard.

I can't think of anything that illustrates my point better. The same goes for the other examples you cited. Yes, they shoot lousy, but they manage to score more points in other ways, and they do other things on the court, maybe with the exception of Harrington who has never been sh-t, much less "of note"

 

I agree that FG% is a poor stat.

But instead of looking at 2pt%, FTs and 3p% independently, you could just look at TS% to determine a player's scoring efficiency.

TS% = [points scored] / [ 2 * (FGA + 0.44*FTA) ]

where (FGA + 0.44*FTA) closely approximates the number of scoring attempts a player has.

Out of a pool of all NBA players who played at least 1500 minutes last season:

Code:

[COLOR=Navy]player	min	TS%	%rank[/COLOR]
Yao	1946	59.2%	94.0%
Wesley	2378	54.6%	56.4%
Head	2309	51.7%	25.2%
Howard	2538	49.9%	13.4%
Bogans	1896	49.7%	11.8%
McGrady	1746	49.4%	10.2%
Alston	2431	47.5%	3.2%

The above represent the only members of the Rockets last season who played at least 1500 minutes on the season. The last column is percentile rank (out of that pool) in scoring efficiency (or TS%). Note that a TS% below 50% is pitiful. Only 3 of the regular players for the Rockets managed to covert above that mark. Yao was excellent and Wesley was decent in terms of efficiency. Head struggled for a large part of the season, though he played ok in the early and latter parts of the season. Howard, Bogans, McGrady, and Alston were plain awful in scoring efficiency. It's no wonder the Rockets offense sucked so much last season.

 

Firstly, for rebounding, while per-minute numbers is better than per-game numbers, one might as well just look at rebounding% (percentage of potential rebounds a player grabs while on the court). That's a clearly the best measure.

Now, are you saying that it's a useless stat because, somehow, you know Loren Woods not to be a good rebounder? On what basis do you make this judgement?

Let's look at his rebounding numbers over his career:

Code:

	[COLOR=Navy]min	Oreb%	Dreb%	Reb-Rating[/COLOR]
2006	324	13.7%	21.9%	35.6
2005	712	10.7%	21.2%	31.8
2004	506	12.5%	14.8%	27.4
2003	353	6.2%	17.3%	23.6

Yes, Woods has played limited minutes in his career, but he's proved that he's a pretty good rebounder. Of course, when you're 7'1 and don't have many other skills, you better be able to do a good job on the boards.

Chuck Hayes put up comparable numbers in his rookie year, at 6'6:

Code:

	[COLOR=Navy]min	Oreb%	Dreb%	Reb-Rating[/COLOR]
2006	534	12.3%	22.5%	34.8

Of course, the big question is whether Hayes (or Woods) can sustain this rebounding rate if he gets longer, more consistent minutes. I'd say it's unlikely. But I certainly believe he'd still easily be an above average rebounder.

 

Sigh - again, it is about what he is asked to do.....Wallace is asked to be much more to the Pistons than Howard is to the Rockets.

It is about the ROLE THE TEAM PUTS HIM IN !!!!!!!!!!!!

Rasheed is a far better player than Howard no doubt, but considering stats don't take into consideration WHAT THE TEAM asks of the player, they are just noise.

DD

 

It's like talking to a five year old.

For the nth time, he sucks in a supporting role (2005).

He sucks in a starting role (2006 & present).

I'm not sure how many other roles there are out there but I'm sure you'll be able to think of one.

All I know is that the less he plays, the better the Rockets will do, this has been fact in the past, and there's no reason why it should change at this stage in his career.

 

**************new sh^t******************

Are yall aware that the Rockets used some of their MLE to sign Novak to a three year deal instead of a two year deal? What the hell are they doing. So now they have JL3, V-Span, and Novak contracts all coming out of the MLE. that means we dont have much left. Here is the article.

Houston Chronicle

July 26, 2006, 11:48PM
Next for Novak: strength
Rookie already shoots the 3 well; Rockets want him to throw his weight around a little more


By FRAN BLINEBURY
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

Yao Ming finished last season averaging 22.3 points and 10.2 rebounds a game, both career highs.

Imagine what he might be able to accomplish without two and three defenders constantly hanging from his 7-6 frame. The Rockets do that all of the time. Imagine, that is.

So enter Steve Novak, the second-round draft choice whom the team signed to a three-year contract on Wednesday. The 6-10 forward from Marquette has the kind of shooting range that the Rockets hope will force defenses to take some of their attention away from Yao.

"If you remember back in the days when we first started making waves and winning big, it was all about a change of philosophy that focused on putting shooters around Hakeem (Olajuwon)," said general manager Carroll Dawson. "It started with Scotty Brooks. Then we eventually added Mario Elie and Kenny Smith and Vernon Maxwell. We just made it hard for teams to double-team down on Dream. If they did, they were going to pay. That's the idea with Steve."

That's fine with the rookie, too.


Helping Yao, T-Mac
"Shooting is what I do," Novak said. "I definitely feel like that will be my role with the Rockets. With the attention that players like Tracy (McGrady) and Yao demand, it's important to keep the defense away from them, space the floor and allow them to do what they do best. That's my job."

Novak averaged 17.5 points a game in his senior season and shot 46.7 percent from behind the 3-point line. He holds the Marquette career record for 3s.

"I was always tall as a kid, but I always tried to do a lot of things on the court," he said. "I was never that big guy who just played with his back to the basket. It helped that my dad was my high school coach and gave me the encouragement to try different things."

By using money left over from their mid-level exception after signing Vassilis Spanoulis, the Rockets were able to give Novak a three-year deal instead of the standard two-year contract for second-rounders.

"His shooting was the first thing that attracted us to him, no doubt," Dawson said. "I like his range. But I've also got to like a guy who shoots 97.4 percent (74-of-76) from the foul line for a whole season. Coach (Tom) Crean uses a pro set at Marquette. So from a style standpoint, I don't think it's going to be too difficult for him to get adjusted."

But Novak will have to get stronger, Dawson said.

"We used him at the 3 spot in the summer league, but he's probably going to have to play both forward positions on our team," Dawson said. "So as soon as we got him signed, I took him right downstairs and turned him over to our strength coaches."

When Novak's name was heard on draft night, most Rockets observers made the immediate connection to Matt Bullard, the tall sharpshooter who played on Houston's first NBA champion in 1994.


More agile than Bullard
"Sure, he's a big guy who can shoot the ball," Dawson said. "But I think he's more mobile than Matt, who pretty much had to play the 4 position. What I saw at the summer league that I really liked was that this guy goes all out all of the time."

Dawson is still trying to finalize a contract agreement with point guard John Lucas III, who played 13 games with the Rockets last season.

fran.blinebury@chron.com

 

Doubtful durvasa - I don't know that he could top the mighty 12.4 rebound rating of Howard (because of his new role, of course... )

 

Not new role - just the role he is doing and has been asked to do.

You are like talking to a brick wall, you hide behinds statistics that do not take into account what the players are being asked to do, and how their teams use them.

Not to mention each and every team has a different make up thus making the stats of comparing them nebulous at best.

Whatever Sam, the Rockets won 2 years ago with a healthy Yao and TMac and Howard playing, and probably would have beaten Dallas if Howard was not out for that series.

Yes, he is older at 33, but he is still a servicable player who knows his role.

Whether you like to admit it our not.

DD

 

I hide behind facts, and you hide behind fantasy. What you call "role" is what I call "a player who just sucks." Your comeback as I understand it, is that "his role is to suck, so thats what the stats show". Don't blame me for not buying that logic when a midget rookie UFA PF like Hayes can come in and perform it at a vastly higher level.

They won in 2005 in spite of Howard, not because of him as he makes the team significantly worse when he is on the court.. Perhaps a small dip in team performance is acceptable when you're talking about a bench player. But a primary PF who starts (which he is now?) -- you're team should not get significantly better on offesnse and defense when you leave.

And had he played vs. Dallas? Well, then Bowen-McGrady don't stifle Dirk for the first few games and instead I bet he has a field day against Matador Howard. Can you say 4-game sweep?