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Should we think of or calculate assists differently?

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by SamFisher, Apr 8, 2011.

  1. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous

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    I'm just sort of thinking aloud here, I'm sure many ohters have written more on this.

    The "assist" seems to be one of the more arbitrary stats in basketball. Aside from the pure subjectivity of whether or not the passer actually created the chance for the scorer (witness Rajan Rondo getting the "hockey assist" in Boston, or Stockton getting lots of help from friendly SLC scorekeepers) - there's two main issues with the assist.

    1) an assist is only as good as the player who's shooting, so a brilliant pass to an open man isn't going to be rewarded all the time (or if the shooter is fouled). Over the course of a season, I'm sure these things average out -e.g., Chris Paul's shooters miss a similar proportion of open shots as Deron Williams' - but it does seem to subject the stat itself to a high degree of arbitrariness.

    2) We reward the passer on the assist, but what about the other who makes the assist possible? Example, I'm thinking of the Knicks here. The big issue they've had is integrating Anthony (a real Iso specialist) with Stoudemire (not a standout passer, but not really an Iso player either).

    Stoudemire is a decent low-post, hi-post, player in a 1-on-1 matchup, but I wouldn't really call hiim an Iso player either, since he excels in the two-man, P'n'R game (more so with Felton than with Billups, but that's beside the point). As a consequence, he helped Felton rack up assist after assist, but it wasn't simply him hanging out in the wing and takiing a J, it was him setting the pick and aggressively moving towards the basket.

    Basically, Stoudemire is doing as much or more than Felton to create the basket opportunity - he has to set the pick, then make his move, then catch the ball on the run (something he's good at) - this is all prior to the shot itself, for which he gets 2 points. Now Felton does have to be a good enough player to get to the pick, and good enough so that the defense respects him and doesn't simply sag off and tackle Stoudemire, so he's got that contributed as well.

    What I'm saying is that it seems like there's got to be a better way to account for this dynamic, statistically, than just assigning stoudemire the points and felton the assist. Like maybe giving them each 1 point?
    How do advanced metrics (like PER) account for assists?
     
  2. Steve_Francis_rules

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    You have obviously forgotten that Trevor Ariza is one of Paul's "shooters." ;)
     
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  3. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I'd say keep all the stats as is as long as Morey is our GM, so that he can be ahead of other GMs with real stats.

    Morey used to say that McGrady was the second best passing wing behind LeBron. He referred to how they tracked a player's passing ability not by traditional assist numbers but by how many high quality shots he created for teammates. But that's probably too much to ask for the ordinary scorekeepers to record.
     
  4. t_mac1

    t_mac1 Contributing Member

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    exactly. many guys are not high assists guys but they create "good" shots for their teammates, whether they go in or not.

    a lot of big man are good playmakers but their assist numbers don't indicate it: dwight howard, tim duncan for instance.

    but this is why I consider chris paul the best PG in the L. the guy averages around 10 assists per game and his team is near dead-last in points score (27th). without paul, they really can't get any decent shots up outside of possible a david west step back here and there. you have to watch him play to see how good he is.
     
  5. clippy

    clippy Member

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    It's going to be an arbitrary measure no matter how you rate it, because the assist is always a two man game and is very system-dependent. Even when it looks like the passer did all the work (eg, threading a bounce pass to an open cutter), it still take the receiver getting in position.

    Advanced stats take the raw assist number but account for pace, which is a decent way of normalizing the system somewhat. IMO it would be better if they did some kind of touches/assists ratio to see how often players pass the ball when they have it (not the most trivial thing to measure).

    Ultimately, any team sport with interchangable positions is going to have issues with individual stats. Really, the only way to properly rate two players would be to give them the same teammates and play the same teams and see whose team does better.
     
  6. snc

    snc Member

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    I've thought about this before too, but really I think all the stats can be looked at in the same way (maybe not to the same extent as the assist though).

    For example, I always thought Dwight Howard's rebounding numbers were inflated by having Rashard Lewis as his PF. He's obviously still a great rebounder but imagine if Kevin Love were playing next to him. Basically I just think all stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, and that there a lot of overlooked factors that go into them.

    But you're right, I think the assist has the most variables/uncertainty about it.
     
  7. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    There was an article that pointed out that raw rebounding numbers are not as indicative of a player's worth as it is widely taken. When you get a rebound, you are taking the ball away from your teammates as well as from your opponent. And of course, you have more rebounding opportunities when there are more missed shots, which the rebounder has zero control.

    This is why boxscore stats are so unreliable in determining a player's true worth.
     
  8. AggieRocketsFan

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    [​IMG]

    T'wolves shoot the 2nd most shots in the league, but only 3 other teams shoot a lower FG%.
     
  9. showtang043

    showtang043 Member

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    even that you see pgs up top and even lebron and others at the top of the key wait for a guy to curl of of 2 screens and just dish it to the right wing where they score, they just kind of waited and made and easy pass it was really the player running off the picks and the guys setting the pick who allowed this great shot to happen, but in this the assist guy gets credit in the box score
     

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