On one hand, if we trade him, we get probably get a nice (potentially excellent package for him) from a contender looking for an offensive SS for the stretch run. The fact that he is arguably the best offensive SS in the majors this year, is health and most importantly, under club control/arbitration eligible for 2 more years after this one is awfully attractive. On the other hand, he could be our SS of the future. He is not too old (28) and if we are ready to be competitive by say 2014, he would be right in his prime. The only downside I can see to keeping him is, he goes back to being injury plagued and we lose to the opportunity to sell high and solidify our minor leagues. Also, if it takes a few more years past 2014 (the Correa era) to be competitive, Lowrie may be past his prime.
i just dont think we know exactly when this team will be a legitimate contender to win the AL West, if we dont see that happening in the next 3-5 years than yes we should trade him, while his value is high to net the best return..
i'd much prefer to wait another year. I don't think teams will pay as much as they should for a guy with as much club control as he has left. Considering he hasn't had too many full seasons of play, I'd rather assume that he's still growing into himself and that, barring injuries, he can repeat this performance going forward
I can't see any way where he could be our ss of the future. At best he is keeping Correa's seat warm for 3-4yrs. He's in his prime right now and I would absolutely keep him if this team was contending in the next 2yrs but there's no way that's happening. Struggling in a terrible division this year and then going the AL next year guarantees this. Don't just throw him away but if you get what is a decent deal then I'd do if. Pence was a consistently very good commodity with no real injury history at all. Lowrie wont fetch the same kind of deal unfortunately.
The organization that receives Jed Lowrie must include 1 (organizational, not overall) top-20 prospect in their offer.
Debatable. You're right in that Pence was consistently good with no injury history but relative to his position he's only an above average hitter. Lowrie plays a premium defensive position and is arguably the elite at that position this season. And it appears that Lowrie is more suited for the middle of the order than Pence. I think he could get a similar deal if he keeps this up til the trade deadline. There is a three-fold problem though: 1) the Phillies already have a pricey SS in Jimmy Rollins 2) they aren't in contention either 3) they have few good prospects left
That's it?!? Did you write that backwards? overall, not organizational? I think the starting price is one top 50, one top 100 prospect and spare change.
a) what if Correa gets hurt? b) what if Correa moves to 3B? c) going to the AL next year guarantees something? Altuve is having a breakout year. So is Lowrie. Maybe Wallace is coming into something right now. With a couple of FA signings and if Lyles and Clemens have good years, why couldn't this team be decent next year? Point is, you don't know. To let Lowrie go THIS early--with multiple years before arbitration--is premature unless you get a SERIOUS haul. If someone comes with an offer like xcrunner detailed above, then you listen and consider. Short of that...I say no way this year.
I don't think you actively shop Lowrie, but if a team comes calling with an offer that you can't refuse --- you've got to make that deal. Lowrie plays a premium position with both good defense and offense and statistically is the best shortstop in the majors. He is healthy for the first time in a long time and may need to repeat this performance again to fetch the king's ransom that a player at his position and salary should command. If Luhnow decided to trade Lowrire, I'd trust his decision because I'm pretty sure Lowrie could get you quite a haul that could rival what the Astros received for Hunter Pence. Wait until the offseason when every team is looking to improve vs. the teams making a run at the playoffs at the deadline and you could get even more in a trade. I'd definitely like to see a top pitcher and top position player in return for Lowrie, and while you might think thats a high price, look at Lowrie's age, position, salary, contract situation (team control for a few more years, etc.). I'd personally like to see Lowrie stay in an Astros' uni for a while longer as even young teams need a veteran presence and he could be that veteran to help the youngsters coming from the minors in a few years.
The Pence, Berkman, Oswalt, and Bourn trades all made sense because the organization literally had zero future. There were no prospects waiting in the wings and there was no light at the end of the tunnel. At that point, it was absolutely necessary to trade every single "star" we could in order to get something, anything in return. They were the team's building blocks, but who needs building blocks when the structure has already collapsed? Now that it is undeniable that there is a light at the end of the (somewhat long) tunnel, the mindset needs to be different. The team and farm system still need improvement, but the situation is nowhere near as dire as a year or two ago. We will be good again, and we need to make sure we aren't trading players who will still be valuable at that point. Now is the time to establish new building blocks, and I'd argue that Altuve and Lowrie should be two of the guys. Barring a potential franchise changing trade proposal, I'd hang on to both of them.
I think you can make a much better argument for keeping Altuve than Lowrie. Altuve is 22y/o and has 5 more years of club control, well within the expectation for a return to contention. Lowrie, on the other hand, is already in his prime at 28y/o and will be a FA by the time the Astros are good again. He's also just way more likely to get a good trade offer.
I agree, I'm just saying the situation with Lowrie is different than in years past. With the other guys, we WERE trading them and whoever gave us the best offer won. With Lowrie, if someone offers us something great then we need to pull the trigger obviously. Otherwise, don't. I think we've gone past the "make a trade just to get prospects" phase.
In the past, it was whatever the Phillies wanted to give us. I have to give credit to Ed Wade, he got a good return for Pence. As far as the Bourn trade, well thats a tale for another time.
You don't look to trade him yet, but you certainly dangle him and see if you get blown away. He's already 28, and he hits FA in 2014. But that still gives us a whole year to see how our prospects start to pan out. Between Villar, Mier, Fontana and Correa we have a whole lot of legit prospects to throw at the position over the next 5 years. Even Marwin Gonzalez is worth a look see. Him, Myers and Wandy all should get traded eventually. But that trio should be the last of the trade to rebuild moves.
I also want to note that I absolutely think Wandy and Myers need to be shopped. There is zero chance that they will be a factor when we get competitive again.