Response Looking at things sympathetically from the coaches' point of view, I believe the current system is their best bet to win some games. I just don't see any strong inside players in the current Rockets players. It's funny that I don't think Rockets' players are particularly good at 3 points shooting, but they are being turned into 3 points shooting team. In this system, you just need a PG who can shoot off Harden, and you don't even need a PG but might as well have another SG or a combo. I am very sympathetic to both Lin and TD, but Lin really should have learned to shoot the ball better at Harvard. I guess they don't teach you to shoot the ball better at Harvard. It's ironic because you don't have to be athletic to shoot the ball well. I also feel sympathetic for the coaches, because they realize that under their system, Lin does not fit in; and they are trying to beat the hell out of him to fit in, like trying to hammer down a nail that is not going in nicely. I think Lin will get traded next year to another team.
Response No, Lin cannot improve his long jumpers during this season. Look how often he steps on 3 points line, which shows he needs way more practice shooting during the off-season. I think during the off-season, Lin should get together with Novak and improve his shooting. If CP3 was playing for Rockets, he would do better than Lin but not as well as he's doing with Clippers. The reason I say this is that a PG who can "juke" and create enough spacing to get off short jumpers is going to be doing better than Lin under the Rockets' system. It's just unfortunate that the Rockets' system does not fit well with Lin's strengths.
Response I tend to believe what the eyewitness wrote, but what we don't know is why the coaches are treating him differently. For all I know, they may be treating him differently because they want Lin to succeed and cannot get rid off Lin, so they are trying to force him to fit into their system. Or they might hold a little bit grudge against him because they might have been forced by Les, the owner, who wanted to get Lin, even though they didn't want to.
I don't think anyone can absolve Lin completely of his sub-par shooting. His jump shot isn't as consistent as it was last year. However, there is some truth in terms of his usage. http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/47791/felton-over-lin-are-the-knicks-lin-sane This season, PnR ball handler represents 25.4% of his plays versus last season where it represented 42.5% of his plays. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-t...-the-rockets-part-i-running-the-pick-and-roll Not only has Jeremy's PnR's declined as a percentage of his plays declined from last year to this year, this is despite his efficiency in the PnR having actually INCREASED. Last year Lin was earning 0.797 PPP as the PnR ball handler. This year he's earning 0.86 PPP, good enough to rate him as the 32nd most efficient PnR ball handler in the NBA according to Synergy Sports. http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/47791/felton-over-lin-are-the-knicks-lin-sane Last season, Lin's highest scoring was off the dribble. In other words, operating with the ball in his hand, assessing his match up, then making a decision to shoot, drive or pass while in rhythm. This also showed in his success in Isolation offense. His ability to gauge the defense, read his opponent, execute the D'Antoni and Woodson play books, and make the correct offensive decisions resulted in 1.02 PPP, good enough for the 3rd best in the NBA. This season, 25.4% of his shots are spot up jump shots, with 84.4% of his 3 point attempts being assisted 3's (catch and shoot). Last season, only 58% of his 3 point attempts were assisted (catch and shoot). His 3 point attempts have increased from 2.1 per game to 3.1 per game, an increase of almost 50%. In other words, he's not only shooting more 3 point shots (he was a 32.0% shooter last season), but he's also shooting them 50% more often in a way that he is the least efficient. This is also true at distances of 16-23 feet, where his percent assisted has increased from 26.7% to 47.8%. So yes, there is a legitimate statistical argument that he's being misused by the coaches. 1) Running fewer PnR's 2) Shooting less off the dribble 3) Shooting more catch and shoots 4) Shooting more shots from 3 point range Take that how you will.
This is false. Lin constantly passes on open jump shots because the D knows he cant make them. Instead when drives to the lane looking to create a shot opportunity it normally results in him picking up his dribble and looking to get rid of it, or forcing a bad shot that gets blocked. The only time he can really "create his own shot" is when he pushed the ball in a transition scenario.
Response I think what you are saying is all correct, and I do hope that Rockets' coaches would experiment by let Lin run the show for several games, but I also notice the following: 1. Rockets' players are not good at setting screens; 2. Asik drops the ball too often; 3. And Harden needs the ball to draw fouls, which by the way, he's very good at. Therefore, your stats conforms to my eye-test and believe everything you say; but my question to you is this: Do you think Rockets have the players that can play Lin-centric? Also, do you think this would be better than playing Harden-centric? For whatever the reason, Harden is really good at drawing fouls. I don't think refs are giving some fouls for Lin this year.
Reponse Yes, Lin is more effective when he creates his own jump shots -- I grant you that -- but is it wise to take away the ball from Harden who is very good at drawing fouls?
I honestly think there's multiple factors at work. 1) Shooting less accurately from jump shot range. 2) Fewer offensive threats on the floor (resulting in less space). The lack of legitimate outside shooting threats other than Delfino results in heavy packing of the paint (PF's, *COUGH*). 3) Lack of offensive play sets for players moving off the ball that forces defenses to move and switch. This isn't just about Lin, Harden has also had a precipitous decline in his ISO efficiency. Last season James Harden was the #2 isolation player in the NBA. This season he's scoring a 0.83 PPP in Isolation, good enough for 54th. Part of it you can ascribe to Harden being double teamed, however this team lacks sufficient offensive threats to relieve the double team or spread the floor, and also lacks enough of a play book to break him free through forced defensive adjustments. Creating space is about more than stretching the floor with 3 pointers (which we don't have), it's also about off the ball movement and positioning by the other players on the team to generate timing gaps in defensive rotations that players like Harden and Lin can exploit. So, in a nutshell... weak roster, weak play book, weak execution = sub par performance by all involved.
If you only include games where Melo was also on the court, how did it compare to Lin this year? Otherwise, all the numbers you run can easily be explained by two words: James Harden.
His performance with Melo can be broken up into two separate era's, Pre and Post Woodson. Lin had 10 games with Melo and D'Antoni, and 7 games with Melo and Woodson. 34.1 MPG, 16.2 ppg, 7.8 apg, 13.9 FGA/game Per 36 - 17.1 p/36, 8.2 a/36, 14.67 FGA/36 Under Woodson his time played per game declined from 34 to 28 minutes per game. 28 MPG, 13.2 ppg, 5.3 apg, 9 FGA/game Per 36 - 16.9 p/36, 6.8 a/36, 11.57 FGA/36 Melo is a different kind of player than Harden of course. Melo wasn't going to bring the ball up, or call for PnR's. A typical play with Lin/Melo on the floor was Lin bring the ball up, then either dump it into Melo once he had position in the post, or call for a PnR and look to drive, kick or shoot. You can see this in his decline in APG and FGA (more post up plays for Melo). Also keep in mind that his 7th game under Woodson was his last before he went for knee surgery, though it was obvious his knee was bothering him for several games. For reference, here are Lin's per 36 numbers in Houston Season - 13.0 p/36, 6.6 a/36, 11.4 FGA/36 Just some stuff to think on.
Does that mean the coaching staff of this Rockets has to go? Is there any numbers on executing the run and gun offense that I am biased towards? I noticed in the Bobcats game, we cut the lead by fast break points and running. Perhaps there are numbers that say why we were scoring 120 points per game earlier, and now we could barely crack the 80 point mark.
Note that it's only up to 25.4% due to the post-Hardenless-San Antonio game stretch where picks were actually set for Lin for a while. Before that it was a lot lower, and an adjustment was made to go back to no screen for Lin, which started the Rockets' 7-game losing streak. These concerns were theoretical at the beginning of the season, which was why the Rockets started playing the "no democratic ball" offense. We played 2 games of winning basketball with Lin getting some screens and handling some playmaking. Went 2-0. McHale makes the adjustment to go away from that no doubt based on roughly the same theoretical framework you have just outlined, we sucked and went something like 7-12 after the adjustment. Harden's efficiency drops to abyssmal levels. Then Harden sat out the San Antonio game, and we went back to Lin getting some screens and handling some playmaking. We went something like 12-3 routinely blowing good teams out by 20+. Harden's efficiency went way up. Lin's efficiency went way way way way up while the more balanced Lin offense was allowed. Then inexplicably, McHale went back to the "no democratic ball" offense, and the Rockets have been like 1-7 since. Harden's efficiency dropped way way way down, so did Lin's production. In fact, everybody's production dropped way way way down once the "no democratic ball" was back, with all its theoretical concerns about how picks are bad because our bigs can't set picks, Harden needs to have the ball more because he draws fouls, yada yada yada. Instead of crushing good teams by 20, the Rockets now lose to mediocre teams by 20. Well, for whatever reason, there is obviously something very very very wrong with all the yada yada yada theoretical concerns, because all 'em theoretical concerns flopped in the face of experimentation. It is clear as day right now that one game strategy works in theory and the other works in practice. The only question that remains is whether it will take a coach firing for the Rockets to go back to what works in practice rather than in theory. I am not going to sit here and theorize why the Rockets crush teams when the ball's in Lin's hands and we set screen for Lin. I don't really care why Harden plays so much better when we set screens for Lin. That fact can remain the eternal mystery for all I care. All I know and all I need to know is that we crushed good teams when Lin had the ball in his hands and we were setting hardcore screens for him and for some inexplicable reason we moved away from that to pursue some theoretical strategic Holy Grail that has consistently flopped spectacularly.
You are talking about catch and shoot while he was talking about shooting off the dribble. In Lins case, it makes a huge difference.
I agree..HOWEVER it doesn't solve the larger problem at hand that he isn't not a spot-up shooter and shouldn't be made into one. Let him play his optimal position.
Good point. I have not seen a lot of games this year, but when they were playing well it seemed that Lin was driving early in the shot clock and shooting or kicking it out. Harden would then receive the ball later in the shot clock with the opposing defense broken down and score a lot more easily. It seemed to be working for both of them.
Your whole argument starts from the assumption that Lin can not defend. Many people have posted different stats that all show Lin is actually a very good defender.
Good read from the fan site observation quote on Jeremy Lin. I'll make sure to do a quick writeup as well when I go to a game in the near future.
The reason why Lin often moves his feet towards the 3pt line before shooting may not be his lack of range, but his tendency to at least 'dribble' a bit before shooting to be comfortable
