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Should I be worried about the stock market?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Jackfruit, Jun 7, 2006.

  1. Plowman

    Plowman Member

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    I'm eyeballin them as we speak,but if I wasn't I'd have 1 - 2 percent stops on the big ones.On the smallcaps,I'd give a lot more latitude,because they are apt to come down just to grab your shares.
     
  2. Plowman

    Plowman Member

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    If you are playing it that way I'd keep my stop losses way back,more like 2-2 1/2 %,if your holding longterm.I'm selling on tops and buying on the drops here...looking at both the short and long time frame now.
     
  3. vtkp99

    vtkp99 Member

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    Please help me with this ya,
    I don't know much about stock market, but since i've been reading about this thread, i did something on my 401K, here's what i did, please tell me what you guys think about it:

    My company uses Alliancebernstein http://www.alliancebernstein.com/portal/home.aspx for our 401K contribution. I've just moved all my funds (most of them used to be in technology) to Goverment fund (ABUSX). Am I safe for doing this?

    Thanks in advance,
     
  4. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    nah i really don't do any longer term/swing trades anymore. i am trading right now though. i am a scalper pretty much.
     
  5. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    btw nice trades. it really feels like the buying is putting in a bottom here. it feels like real buyers too and not just panicky short covering.
     
  6. Plowman

    Plowman Member

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    Hey,nothing wrong with taking a few scalps.How long you been at it?
    On my trades,thanks,we'll see how it all works out.I figured I'd spread it out a little.Often,I'll concentrate on a couple of bigger trades,but this time I played it safe.
    I totally agree that the shorts already covered and we have our bottom.Short of world events conspiring against us,I think we should do well here.
     
  7. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    You are not safe. The fund holds bonds with with an "average effective maturity" of 7.34, which tells me that they are interest rate sensitive. Rates are going up so negative or underperformance should be the expectation.

    If you are saving for retirement, I would think strongly about investing in one the target date retirement funds: AllianceBernstein 20** Retirement Str A.

    Taking a look at AllianceBernstein 2025 Retirement Strategy I see asset allocation of
    Code:
    1    U.S. Value                      21.99
    2    U.S. Large Cap Growth           21.69
    3    International Value             12.28
    4    International Growth            12.24
    5    Global Real Estate Investment   10.04
    6    Small-Mid Cap Value              6.55
    7    Small-Mid Cap Growth             6.50
    8    High-Yield                       5.48
    9    Intermediate Duration Bond       3.23
    This is very aggressive.

    91/9 Stock/Bond split

    70/30 domestic/international split (guessing here, depending how global the REIT really is)

    The ride will be more bumpy than comparable target date funds. You could pick your target date to be at 55 (your age) versus 65. That would temper the ride a bit.
     
    #67 No Worries, Jun 14, 2006
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2006
  8. vtkp99

    vtkp99 Member

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    No Worries!
    Thanks you very much for your response, but man,that was waayyy over my head, so my question to you is which one should i put my money in out of these selections:

    ALLIANCEBER EXCHGE RESERVE A
    ALLIANCEBER CORPORAT BOND A
    ALLIANCEBER US GOVERNMENT A (100% now)
    ALLIANCEBER GBL GOV INC TR A
    ALLIANCEBER GROWTH AND INC A
    ALLIANCEBER BALANCED SHARES A
    ALLIANCEBER MID-CAP GRO A
    ALLIANCEBER LG CAP GR FD CL A
    ALLIANCEBER GROWTH A
    ALLIANCEBER INTL GRTH CL A
    ALLIANCEBER INTL RSRCH GR CL A
    ALLIANCEBER SM CAP GROWTH CL A
    ALLIANCEBER GBL TECH FD CL A
    ALLIANCEBER SM/MIDCAP VAL CL A
    ALLIANCEBER INTL VALUE A

    Thank you Sir,
     
  9. RIET

    RIET Member

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    Doesn't Alliance Bernstein suck?
     
  10. vtkp99

    vtkp99 Member

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    I have no choice since my company uses them...
     
  11. RIET

    RIET Member

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    Rather than putting your money in a government bond fund, don't you have a stable value fund paying 4-5%? Most companies have one in their 401 (k).

    Seems a lot better than an interest sensitive bond fund.

    Why anyone buys bond funds is beyond me. If you're going to buy bonds, buy bonds - not bond funds.
     
    #71 RIET, Jun 14, 2006
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2006
  12. vtkp99

    vtkp99 Member

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    These are the selections that i can chose from, please tell me which ones should i chose
    Thanks

    ALLIANCEBER EXCHGE RESERVE A
    ALLIANCEBER CORPORAT BOND A
    ALLIANCEBER US GOVERNMENT A (100% now)
    ALLIANCEBER GBL GOV INC TR A
    ALLIANCEBER GROWTH AND INC A
    ALLIANCEBER BALANCED SHARES A
    ALLIANCEBER MID-CAP GRO A
    ALLIANCEBER LG CAP GR FD CL A
    ALLIANCEBER GROWTH A
    ALLIANCEBER INTL GRTH CL A
    ALLIANCEBER INTL RSRCH GR CL A
    ALLIANCEBER SM CAP GROWTH CL A
    ALLIANCEBER GBL TECH FD CL A
    ALLIANCEBER SM/MIDCAP VAL CL A
    ALLIANCEBER INTL VALUE A
     
  13. Mr. Brightside

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    If you are risk averse and don't like to see big moves either in your money, stay away from the INTL (International) funds. Since you have some time till retirement your risk tolerance toward the markets should be good. So I would suggest a majority of stock funds, with a less emphasis on the bond funds.

    The stock funds which seem decent are the Mid-Cap, Growth A, and Large Cap. Those funds should get you on par with the market returns over the long haul.
     
  14. vtkp99

    vtkp99 Member

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    Thanks Mr. Brightside,
    Here are with the symbols:


    ALLIANCEBER EXCHGE RESERVE A
    ALLIANCEBER CORPORAT BOND A (CBFAX)
    ALLIANCEBER US GOVERNMENT A (ABUSX) (put in 100% now)
    ALLIANCEBER GBL GOV INC TR A (ANAGX)
    ALLIANCEBER GROWTH AND INC A (CABDX)
    ALLIANCEBER BALANCED SHARES A (CABNX)
    ALLIANCEBER MID-CAP GRO A (CHCLX)
    ALLIANCEBER LG CAP GR FD CL A (APGAX)
    ALLIANCEBER GROWTH A (AGRFX)
    ALLIANCEBER INTL GRTH CL A (AWPAX)
    ALLIANCEBER INTL RSRCH GR CL A (AIPAX)
    ALLIANCEBER SM CAP GROWTH CL A (QUASX)
    ALLIANCEBER GBL TECH FD CL A (ALTFX)
    ALLIANCEBER SM/MIDCAP VAL CL A (ABASX)
    ALLIANCEBER INTL VALUE A (ABIAX)
     
  15. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    I've been trading a couple years. I trade everyday and probably average 40,000 shares a day. certainly not a lot, but I am trying to push myself to do more and get out of my comfort zone. also, we've got a lot of great technology at our office so we can do scalp plays off the listed stocks much better than other traders. I make almost all of my money on short momentum plays, big spreads, and crossed markets. it sucks now that inet has the trade thru rules in place so you can't cross anymore. arca is putting them in place but I have no clue how soon they will fully be in effect. it's r****ded in my eyes but whatever I am ranting.

    hopefully, the VIX will stay up here for awhile and we will have some more good trading ahead.
     
  16. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    How old are you? How many years to retirement? You are saving this money for retirement, right?

    Do you check your IRA every day? every quarter? every year?

    How upset would you be with a 20% gain or loss?
     
  17. vtkp99

    vtkp99 Member

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    I'm in the 30's, still got almost 30 years to retirement.
    Yes, i'm saving this money for retirement
    I check my 401K every quarter
    No i won't be upset with a 20% loss (but would be happy with gain.. :) )

    The reason I moved my money to AllianceBernstein Bond U.S. Govt A (ABUSX)
    was I thought i can hide out somewhere safe at this time and I'll get back with more aggressive funds when the market coming back...but I don't know, like i said, i'm new at this...

    Thanks for your help No Worries!
     
  18. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    First of all the best "safe " selection you have is

    AllianceBernstein Exchange Reserves

    which appears to be your money market fund choice (with a front end load AND high fees).

    The current market outlook in the next 3-6 months is pretty tough sledding. The recent downturn had a lot to do with the Fed raising interest rates, which mainly a function of inflationary pressure due to rising gas prices. More rate hikes are likely this year.

    The market had priced itself believing the rate hikes were over. Higher interest rates will slow down the economy in theory. Slower economy means slower earning growth, the main factor that drives equity prices. Higher interst rates also means that bond mutual funds will lose value (as rates go up bond values go down). Thus, both bonds and stocks in general will be lucky to break even iin the short term.

    My suggestion is to do the following steps

    1. switch your existing 401k monies to your money market choice: AllianceBernstein Exchange Reserves.

    2. for all of new 401K monies put them into a diversified selection of funds OR a target fund like: AllianceBernstein 2035 Retirement Strategy (assuming 2035 is about the year you will retire). If you do not have target date fund choices in your 401K, I would call your 401k point of contact and complain. This is borderline criminal.

    If you do not have a target date fund choice, you will have to roll your own. Looking at your choices I see one well diversified choice: AllianceBernstein Balanced Shares. Looking at this fund holdings it is 95+% US. I would suggest adding some international exposure which will make your 401K too stock heavy. To balance the international stock I would add some money market exposure, to dilute the overall stock exposure. Thus my suggestion would be to make the following choices for your new 401k monies:

    10% AllianceBernstein International Growth Fund
    10% AllianceBernstein International Value Fund
    10% AllianceBernstein Exchange Reserves

    70% AllianceBernstein Balanced Shares

    After a few quarters once you are happy and comfortable with the above four funds, you could rebalance moving the monies in step #1 back into play.
     
  19. vtkp99

    vtkp99 Member

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    No Worries,
    I'll do as you recommended,
    Thank you very much Sir,

    If i see you at the Rockets games...all the drinks are on me!!
     

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