No downside here My suggestion is Go to Vegas Bet your entire net worth on RED at the roulette table Proceed to Lear Jet dealership
Yes,there appears to be downside,ergo short it down(lots of cheese to be made here)....When the correction is done you have an entry point for excellent long positions and you've made a bundle.
then you can write a book "How Market Timing Made Me Rich: Why It Fails For Most People But Not Me". You gotta admit that going to Vegas has a better "out of the box" feel.
I'd bet it all on the jockey with the yellow hat. He is channelling Smarty Jones. I feel it in my bones!!!
Hammer me all you want to a point.But I do this for a living and quite frankly I don't understand your aggressive/rude attitude....or maybe I do.That which is not comprehended(and is out of the box) is often denigrated.
I also do this for a living (professional fund manager). I time the market as my primary strategy. This alone has allowed my firm to be up over 25% this year, and my personal portfolio well over 40%. My three year firm averaged return is around 35%. There are ways to time the market, you just have to be smart enough to know how. Most academics will tell you there is no way to achieve these returns or to do this.
You are telling a guy with a small portfolio of tech stocks to short the market. He is not in the business and will likely "buy high and sell low". Thus, your advice to him or to any other unsophisticated investor is ... (how to say this politely?) ... wildly inappropriate. WRT shorting, it is a high risk strategy for the savy investor (or a not-so savy investor with a savy broker). I do not doubt that people do make money shorting the market. But have you ever noticed how your friends who go to Vegas always brag about their winning trips but not their losing trips? It is human nature. But it sends a wrong message that one can win more often than not in Vegas.
Very reasonable analysis if the numbers are right. Where do you get these numbers anyway? Any historical standard deviation of P/E ratios? SP500 looks fairly safe to own.
Mr.Brightside, Those are great gains.You know,I wake up each day and run to the computer pumped up about what oppurtunities will be presented next.I lost my Mom suddenly about 5 years ago and threw myself into investing/trading,initially learning the ropes in the high volume,bigger stocks.It took about 2 - 3 years(which was both cathartic and a learning experience),but I've been able to marry the innate and the technical side.I mentioned in the other investing thread about having a good friend who acted as a sort of mentor.Now,I'm always open to learning more and always ready to help others who might have those same aptitudes or who just have open minds along with a willingness to learn.
go to http://www.standardandpoors.com/ it will redirect you to http://www2.standardandpoors.com/... look on the top pane for a link to the "Indices" & click it look on the left hand pane for a link to the "S&P 500" Index & click it from the pull down in the page center, choose "Month End Data" look at the bottom and you will see "P/E Ratio" ta da!
I strictly trade the QQQQ and SPY. I'm thinking about shifting some of my attention to the futures indices markets though.
cool...i basically only trade listeds since they are less whippy and you have the specialists and you can see the order flows. right now i don't trade anything very well...lol. my company is killing it right now and i am just slightly positive this month. if you only trade QQQQ and SPY then you should check out some other heavily traded iShares of the emerging markets.
The Dow was down 350 or so points in a week and was down 170 points on Thursday before showing signs of stabilization finishing positive.We were actually up Friday before the selloff.Watch what happens early this week.
Corrections are a natural part of a rising market Or the precursor of a bear market But you can't tell till you look at it from the rearview mirror. I would tell the unsophisticated retail investor to always be more afraid of losing your principal than you are of missing capital appreciation. Because: 100-10%= 90 90+10%= 99 , you lose a buck plus commissions It depends on your risk tolerance and time horizons but don't feel bad if you want to bail before you lose money just because some is telling you you might be missing a chance to make money. Gains are nice, losses are a b****. I would be very satisfied with the short term earnings rate on cash invetments right now versus the risks in stocks. I buy bonds even though it's a rising rate enviroment, I buy bonds not bond funds and I buy them wiith the thought that I am happy to collect the interest till maturity and then I get all my money back. (but I am old)
