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Shot Clock Usage and Shot Selection Analysis by VOA

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Voice of Aus, Nov 24, 2013.

  1. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    What is shot clock usage and how does it affect the Rockets thus far?

    First off the principle behind shot clock usage is actually very simple. The less time taken to take a shot has a direct correlation to points. An Analysis on this broke the clock down into as follows: 0-10 seconds ("quick" possession), 11-15 seconds ("early" possession), 16-20 seconds ("structured" possession) and 21-24 seconds ("late" possession) and lastly combining the structed and late possessions together or over +16 seconds (“crunch”).

    Lastly some help on terminology used in the graphics:
    eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PTM)) / FGA = adjusts for the fact that 3-point field goals are worth 50 percent more than 2-point field goals.

    Att. = how much of a proportion this attributes to the overall shots taken

    Ast’d = how much of a propotion made shots are assited by teammates

    Blk’d = How much of a proportion total shots taken are blocked


    Guards

    James Harden
    [​IMG]

    Harden firstly takes 71% of his shots within the first 15 seconds which is above league average for a guard which can be attributed to the label he receives as an ultra efficient guard. The Beard and in those first 15 seconds was able to eclipse his current eFG% of .497%.
    However as many have voiced in previous forums and posts have shown that the later the clock goes especially in crunch time (over 16 seconds) Harden has displayed a poor net result from his high lofty efficiency standards. Attribute that to ISO Harden or his lingering feet issues or just the law of the shot clock that the longer it takes the less productive the shot becomes. To put it in some perspective rival superstar players also struggle to shoot the +21 second shot for example Chris Paul (.250 eFG) and Kevin Durant (.382) all suffer from having to take the last shot.
    However if you want to look at Harden’s previous shooting in the +21 seconds time frame shows that James shot the ball at .417 eFG so hopefully some room to improvement for The Beard.

    Jeremy Lin

    [​IMG]


    Lin’s hot start could bring these shooting numbers back down to Earth as the law of averages have started to kick in recently but even saying that, some encouraging signs should be taken.
    The major difference from comparing Lin to Harden with their shot clock is that Lin is having to shoot an extra 10% of his shots in the Crunch time turning that 39% of shots into an eFG% of .615 and 5.4 points. Lin could also attribute this to the ability of Harden to draw fouls and earn ‘easier’ points from the line finishing with on average 8FTM compared to Lin’s 4.5 FTM which is still a respectable figure posted by Jeremy. For comparison to Lin someone who is relatively new to the league someone like a Damien Lillard shoots just a tad more of his shots as jump shots at 78% at an eFG of .492 however Damien converts those shots into 12.2 shots.

    Patrick Beverly

    [​IMG]

    Pat Bev offensively started off slow for his standards. Bev like many of the Rockets have shown some regression as the shot clock runs and with the regression in points as well. However Pat has shown to be a reliable shooter no matter what the time on the clock shows in comparison to the rest of the league. Most likely you will never see Bev’s eFG% of .385 on jump shots to never be this low again after a slump which inevitability everyone on this team will go through over a 82 game season. You can also see in comparison to Lin and Harden who average roughly half of their jump shots to be assisted, in contrast Bev relies on 92%, which can be taken as a positive and negative.


    Forwards

    Chandler Parsons


    [​IMG]

    Chanlder Bang proberbly surprised me the most with his eFG over the entire shot clock. Chandler where is the regression? And to add to that didn't you start the season off slow? It amazed me how quickly Parsons was able to bounce back and get back to being a productive forward in this game. Also chandler has also shown to be an above average finisher in Crunch time scoring knocking down .477% eFG which is higher than certain players overall total. What also stood out was Chander’s ability to shoot well at and around the rim boasting and efg of .655% inside and in comparision to Durants .658 you can see he can match it with the superstars in certain categories.

    Terrence Jones

    [​IMG]

    It’s a shame the data has not been updated for Terrence however I have done the numbers for Terrence myself and can announce Jones’s old efg% of .449 is now .642 and now 9.6ppg which is astonishing since at the start of the season he was no where to be seen. Whether TJ can keep this up or not is yet to been seen obviously, nevertheless its also encouraging to see Terrence’s willingness to attack the basket at 41% instead of just taking the jumper.

    Omri Cassipi

    [​IMG]


    Cassipi just makes no sense when you consider what is everyone thought was suppose to happen. Looking at his stats show that the longer you give him the ball the better he becomes, which could be attributed to the fact that when Casspi is close to the rim he finishes at .600% eFG a stat no one on CF’s thought would happen. Cassipi is a smooth operater relying on not taking contact but mannoving his way through the opposition defence or shifting to the necessary spots on the floor when its time to shoot. Interesting though Cassipi once getting to the rim is getting blocked at a rate of 20% which is just an outlier when compared to the rest of the team.

    Francisco Garcia

    [​IMG]


    Is more natural guard but a is at times utilized as a wing/forward, Garcia has gotten off to a rough start compared to his own standards. For shooters like Garcia and Cassipi who rely on the 3 ball it could sway the stat of FG% which makes eFG% a better all around measurement for spot up shooters. An indicator that proves Garcia has started off slow is the fact he has not made a basket past 21 seconds (only makes up 6% of total shots taken). Also note, on jump shots that are taken 83% of this time by him are also coming from 83% assisted by teammates,


    Centres

    Dwight Howard

    [​IMG]

    The results in the image above t back up oringinally what I thought. The longer it takes Dwight to get a shot up the less likely he is to score. This draws resembles to Harden as potentially the superstar curse as having the tag of being a superstar results in teams making them take last second shots, or it could have something to do with his offensive arsena or even dwight getting fouled. I do believe he has somewhat improved certain aspects of his game and its interesting to note that on Dwight’s made baskets he is assisted on average just above 50%. Dwight is also getting blocked at a rate of 16%(last year Dwight got blocked at a rate of 9% around the rim) at and around the rim and in comparison to other big men such as Boogie Cousins (10%) and Roy Hibbert (5%) is a bit concerning in some aspects.

    Conclusion

    The pace the Rockets play tries to stop the +21 second shots, push the ball at all costs and I'm sure Morey has told players the theory of the quicker the shot the higher the reward, thus making us the highest paced team.
     
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  2. Lihao

    Lihao Member

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    0% Ast'd for Harden from 16 sec onwards? Wow, it's that real? i'm sure he took some catch and shoot before , not even one was after 16 sec?
     
  3. RememberSura

    RememberSura Member

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    Those stats are for all hardens game thus far all 10 games.

    I wrote that down in my notes and somehow didn't include it, all stats are for harden are from http://www.82games.com/1314/13HOU5.HTM or http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.html?PlayerID=201935 I thought he had some aswell but for an assit to count it needs to be within 2 seconds of catching the ball
     
  4. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Errr my friends forgot to log out of my computer ^^ and I just answered on his account.

    Hope the answer helps anyways
     
  5. Lihao

    Lihao Member

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    multiple account? lol , joke

    thanks for the information :)
     
  6. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Hahaha spreading rep to his account, he's gonna get Hakeem rep in a couple of weeks. Watch out.

    All good I have emailed a buddy who does editing for nba games to look out for harden shots at the buzzer to see if their assisted or not.

    I still can't beleive it, surly it's a mistake
     
  7. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    why don't Harden's total points in the Shot Usage table equal his actual ppg.
     
  8. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    FTM make up the rest, as shown in the picture above it the beard knocks down 8 per game
     
  9. HeWhoIsLunchbox

    HeWhoIsLunchbox Contributing Member

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  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Are there any sites other than 82games.com that provide shot clock data? 82games isn't updated after each game.
     
  11. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    I didn't look hard into it, I'll do it tomorrow.

    I have been doing it manually for my national competition to help out a team and can tell u it's hard work, those guys at 82games do a great job as it is
     
  12. YYYY1313

    YYYY1313 Member

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    Interesting stats, thank you.
     
  13. JustAGuy

    JustAGuy Member

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    Whenever I see stats like this, I always feel like I want to see some representative comparison players or league average next to it. Still, good to see.
     
  14. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    That matches the eye test. When the shot clock is winding down, what we usually find is that Harden is having the ball at the top of the arc trying to make something happen. He either (1) blows past his defender and goes to the hoop, (2) steps back to shoot a jumper if he can't shake his man -- not a high percentage shot, or (3) passes to someone else in the perimeter with a few seconds left.

    When the clock has less than 10 seconds, you rarely see Harden cutting without the ball. If he is not already having the ball, he will come out to the top and the ball will be passed to him there.

    I think it is probably by design. It's kind of like a safety valve when the initial play does not work out.
     
  15. CDrex

    CDrex Contributing Member

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    1) I'm surprised Cisco's efficiency has been hanging in there, because it feels like he's been absolutely terrible. There is a certain built-in advantage to taking almost exclusively threes, I suppose.
    2) Casspi's percentages early in the shot clock kind of match the eye test - in transition he's ultra-reckless and takes some truly moronic shots. If he could find an up-tempo role that yields efficiencies similar to his half-court role he would definitely be more consistent and extremely valuable.
    3) The difference between the assist rates on Lin, Beverley, and Parsons is interesting. It indicates that in the transition game, Beverley goes for his own shot MUCH more than he ever does in the half-court, while Parsons does a lot more off-ball work than in the half-court. Lin, meanwhile, seems to do about the same balance of dribbling and running/cutting/spotting up whether in transition or not.
     
  16. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    its Beverley :p
     
  17. apatel123

    apatel123 Member

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    288 × 400 - community.allhiphop.com
     
  18. timyeung

    timyeung Member

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    The stats seem to confirm that Harden is a more effective and efficient scorer when he shoots fast and in rhythm, before opposing teams can set up their D. However, if Harden goes ISO and holds onto the ball for a long time, that allows opponents to set up their D and surround him with 2-3 defenders, and thus his EF% drops from 0.66 to 0.3. Lin has a high crunch EF% of 0.6, but that can be attributed as well to the presence of Harden, who tends to draw defenders away from other teammates.
     
  19. Hak34

    Hak34 Member

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    What these numbers are telling me is that Harden either has the ball in his hands end of clock, or he sure isnt going to move or create space or play any O thats not him at the top of the key with ball in his hand.
     

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