I think because those consensus top guys were already considered more of a sure thing for a variety of reasons: on court performance in college, an extensive body of scouting behind their characteristics/potential; Those guys that shoot up late during this time do so because of performances in workouts. That's a bit scary, don't you think? In Sheldon's case, he was considered late lottery for a reason - people had seen him in college and saw his limitations etc. (height, not much offensive game) but then one day in a workout he bench presses 185lbs. 25 times and suddenly that alleviates all questions and he jumps 5 spots in the draft? Sure, you could still say guys like Gay and Bargnani haven't shown it on the court and their projections are based on potential, but I feel more comfortable with that body of work than how many times someone bench pressed a certain weight or how fast he ran a certain distance. I agree fully with this, especially if you consider Rashard was just an 18 year old at the time and was probably lacking in comprehension skills, I'm pretty sure he misinterpreted Dawson when he said something like "We really like how you did and will take a look at you." It just doesn't happen that high up in the draft. As a corollary to this, another pet peeve of mine is the (example)"a good friend of Steve Nash's says that he will likely resign with Dallas." How the hell would the friend or relative know when the free agent themself usually doesn't decide until the last minute?
Well, sure, I can understand being skeptical about last-minute increases in the evaluation of a guy's talent after you've watched him for a couple of years. But, the GMs are privy to all this too, and to quite a bit more information too. If a guy's draft value goes up among GMs during the workouts, there's a reason for it.
Something else to consider. Shelden Williams still seems an unlikely top 5 pick. Doesn't matter how many times he benched 185 lbs. SWill might actually WANT to play for Atlanta. I think he's from Oklahoma. We all know where he played college ball. MAYBE he doesn't want to play for Minnesota or Boston, and so pulled out of any workout he scheduled there. Granted, he would give up a hundred thousand dollars or so in my scenario, but what if Atlanta said, We have a deal on the table with the Rockets; they'll draft you and trade your rights to us? Atlanta has cap space now to absorb Rafer + #8 (Shelden?) for the #5. The Hawks would get all sorts of value for their pick. They get a PG and a solid PF. We'd only do this in the chance to get Brandon Roy. Anyway, ANYTHING is pure speculation, but Shelden Williams top 5? He would have had to dominate in his workouts.
Question I have (for people with a whole lot more patience and free time than *I* have) is this: Can we find examples of some of these types of players from past drafts, and examine how they have panned out in the NBA? In other words, can we identify those 'marginal'-type players who saw a dramatic increase in their 'draft stock', rose quickly and highly up the draft board, were drafted far above where they were slated, say, immediately after the NCAA season, and who have had a while in the league to be able to determine if their increased draft status was merited or not? I suppose such a question is intended to discover if, historically, such chart-climbers are more 'fool's gold' or 'real gold'.. or if it's just totally random. In addition, may as well toss in guys who may not have actually climbed chrts, per se, but who were generally acknowledged as having been drafted earlier than the concensus, such as Villanueva last year. I think in retrospect it's clear that whoever made the call to draft CV made a good decision, but at the time, it was questioned. Those kinds of guys, those 'reaches', should probably be in this group as well, for comparison's purposes. Also, it might be best to omit the foreign players, the Euros.. because a guy like Gasol comes to mind in this same kind of chart-climbing situation; but I think his climb had more to do with teams simply discovering what he was capable of, rather than superceding already-established expectations. Any of you Hoops Mensas want to take a crack at it? (As a corrolary, it would also be interesting to examine those players who began as highly-touted, but slid down the board, for whatever reason.. someone mentioned Paul Pierce before..)
Marion comes to mind. I think he was drafted the year we took Roderick Rhodes? In all the early mock drafts, he was mentioned as a possibility to the Rockets (mid 20's) until he suddenly shot up the charts. Even on draft day, #9 was considered a reach. Phoenix Suns is one of hell of an organization.
You're probably right. I just remember him being mentioned as a possibility to the Rockets, and we of course had a low pick.
I remember Olowokandi was a bit of a climber. That didn't work out too well. It's a hard exercise because we're trying to remember early and late evaluations from years ago. I suppose you could look at early and late draft articles from years ago.
Honeslty, I don't see how Atlanta doesn't make a deal with Houston if they plan on taking Shelden. The 9-10 picks are the danger zone, with Golden State shopping Murphy and Seattle ready to pounce on any big man. Btw, great point ROXTXIA. I'm very skeptical of Atlanta staying put at the 5 and drafting Shelden.
It was Kenny Thomas that was picked at #22 and Shawn Marion at #9 in 1999. Roderick Rhodes was picked #24 in 1997.
I remember in 2001, Kedrick Brown was draft #11 by the Celtics. He jumbed the charts in the last few days and said to have been promised to be taken by the Celtics. I do not know if he is still in the league. In 2001, Loren Woods dropped to #46 after being consider by the Rockets at #13. In 2002, Qyntel Woods dropped to #21 after being consider by the Rockets at #15. Horry at #11 and Cassell at #24 were not fans favorite picks at the time. The thing is that fans look at the mock drafts and if their team draft someone who was projected later, they most likely boo him. Say the Rockets draft Kyle Lowry or Rajon Rondo at #8, for instance, I bet you they will get booed.
rondo at 32 would be a very good pick. his quickness, ability to get to the basket, and finishing prowess would be a welcome sight.
But Marion is a world class athlete. We are talking about taking a Dale Davis with the 5th pick here, in a newer era of faster paced NBA basketball. Shelden isn't going to be overpowered in the NBA, but the 4 spot is about agility and quickness now. He's a good team defender but a bad man-on-man defender. This is very strange, to say the least.
According to Chad Fords recent insider blog, there may be some legs to this rumor about Sheldon going to the Hawks. It could really shakeup the top 6 players as far as picks go.
Here is an excerpt: In our latest mock draft, we first reported that the rumor swirling around the Orlando predraft camp was that the Atlanta Hawks had made a promise to Duke's Shelden Williams to draft him. We said, "The buzz around Orlando on Friday was that the Hawks had cut a deal with Shelden Williams. However, that makes almost no sense. Why cut a deal with a guy this early in the draft, especially one who has a 99.9 percent probability of being there at No. 5?" Here in Treviso, we've now had two sources, one close to Williams and one close to the Hawks, confirm that Hawks GM Billy Knight indeed asked Williams to shut down his workouts in return for the Hawks' selection. Williams, in recent days, has canceled workouts with the Timberwolves and Magic and has no more scheduled workouts before the draft. To date, Williams has worked out for six teams: the Warriors, Jazz, Hornets, Celtics, Sonics and Rockets. While Williams clearly would give Atlanta something it doesn't have, a big, physical rebounder and shot-blocker to play in the paint, at No. 5 the Hawks would be taking Williams several spots higher than where he was projected to go. But that shouldn't be an issue, according to one NBA executive here in Treviso. "If you like a player, it doesn't matter where you draft him," the executive said. "Who cares about where he's projected? Williams could have gone to a team like the Rockets (No. 8) or the Sonics (No. 10) anyway. That's not that far off." Doesn't look they are interested in trading down for him. So Roy is out of the question for us, has been for a while, it's whether we will trade down for our man or stay put at 8. And cmon, with the way this franchise's value has skyrocketed since the arrival of Yao, buying the 10th pick wouldn't hurt either.
I guess it doesn't matter where you draft someone, but if you can trade down and still pick him up, why wouldn't you? IF Shelden isn't picked up by the Hawks at #5, the next best chance for him is the Sonics at #10. Why not see if a team like Houston wants to trade #8 + Alston or whoever for #5? The Hawks get the PF they want and a PG they need. The Rockets get a better shot at Roy and are almost guaranteed one of Gay or Thomas, there might also be a slight shot at Aldridge or Bargnani.
