I think that young men with the willingness to learn from veterans can really improve their game on both sides of the floor. For instance Budinger, whom seem to absorb a great deal from Shane last year. Chase has improved his perimeter defense since he first arrived, and i'm sure the coaches have alot to do with..but so does the old veteran. I'm sort of a Courtney Lee homer and have watched him since he got in the league. If you go watch any of his interviews during the Orlando Finals stint in which he made major contributions (though is remembered for that stupid missed layup), you notice that the cut of his jib is very similar to that of Battier's. Therefore I think, that Courtney Lee being the already the average to good defender he is for his position, can improve his defense monumentally with the help of Shane's never-ending wisdom. Lowry and Lee will be our primary backcourt defensive players, and i don't think people are quite comfortorable with that yet. Sure you can throw Shane on the slow 2 guards, but he's already going to be starting at the 3. Make no mistake though, Lee has the potentiall, mindset, and most importantly heart/work ethic to advance his game on the defensive end. With Battier, and the mind boggling amount of efficiency that Rick get's from his players, there's no reason that a Lee/Lowry backcourt won't be able to old their own in the WC.
I agree with most of your post - though I think we can still take Portland out - we still own the mental game there, Oden is just a fragile and I'm not sold on Fernandez. But it goes to show you we aren't a lock even with a healthy Yao. I will say that the only team that scares me is Utah. I wouldn't be real fond of a Laker matchup either but I think we can knock them off under the right circumstances - assuming the refs give us a break. oh and I think Phoenix will be outside looking in this year.
We're as deep as the Kings of 01/02. Our talent is so underrated. Our only sore spot is backup PF, where Hill and Patterson are huge question marks. And I wish our centers weren't so old and injured. Everything relies on Yao's health, which has a horrible track record. But if Yao can play like he used to we're easily the 2nd best team in the west.
I won't debate the young player becomes an elite player issue with you. I know you think Brooks or Buddinger can take it to that level. I can see them continuing to improve, but not to the level of Kobe, Roy, Durant, Melo, DWill - the folks I consider elite. I agree doing it as a team is our best hope, but it's unlikely and rare. Pistons played an elite level of defense and had 2 way players at each position in their best 5. We are closer to the Kings and they were so good because they operated like they were of one mind offensively, and did enough defensively to win. But if our model is the Kings, that's a longshot to go deep in the playoffs.
Brooks > Kidd Martin = Terry Yao >>> Haywood Battier < Butler Scola << Dirk On offense Dallas can not stay with this lineup, Brooks is too fast for Kidd to handle and Martin is as skilled if not more than Terry is, Yao is also way to big and skilled for Haywood to handle, and Dirk is a sieve on defense and Butler and Battier is a wash. On defense, Kidd no longer commands a double team and Brooks can give him fits with speed. Martin's length can bother Terry, he can sag a bit and still get back to the perimeter to bother Terry's shot, Yao closes down the lane, Butler is better than Shane but Shane D is on par with Butler's O. Dirk has a major advantage, but Scola can crowd him and Dirk will have to settle for jumpers.... Not to mention the Rocks have defensive stoppers like Hayes, Lowry and Lee to call on if they need them, and offensive players like Miller & Cbud...if they need them. The Rockets win on offense and defense the Mavs are shooting contested jumpers. Brooks > Miller Martin < Roy Battier = Batum Scola = Aldrich Yao >>> Prz/Oden Brooks would outscore Miller and give him fits with his speed, Miller can't post up because Yao is there blocking the rim, or if Miller is getting too physical you bring in Lowry. Roy is better than Martin, but Martin can keep up with him scoring wise, and Roy is not a great defender, so Martin's movement will wear him out on the other end. Batum is a nice player on the break but in a set court, against a superior defender like Shane he will not be as effective. Scola and Aldrich are about equal, but Scola plays a little more in the paint and is a tougher overall player. Yao dominates whomever they have down low, just crushes them. Just too many options to list, but the Rockets compare very favorably against both of those teams. DD
For the record I don't think any of our players WILL get there, but I hope they do.....there are very very few elite players IMO. The Kings were in the WC finals almost every year and would have knocked out the Shaq and Kobe Lakers were it not for the NBA rigging game 6 with 24 foul shots in the 4th quarter to force game 7. If we are as good as the Kings while we try to shake loose an elite player....then let's strap em up and get to work..... DD
We also have an unbalanced schedule against these four teams. We have 1 home and 2 away games against LA and Portland, but it's the flip for Utah and Phoenix. So it's a pretty damn tough road to beat the Lakers at least once on their home court. We draw them the first night of the season, so both teams will be fresh, although the Rockets will be incorporating a lot of new pieces. The matchup in Houston favors us a bit. LA will be playing the second night of a back-to-back on the road. The third is in LA, but the Lakers are in the middle of a brutal stretch here (Thieves, @Mavs, @Nuggets, Jazz, Kings, Celtics, Rockets, Spurs, @Hornets). Maybe we sneak a game from them, or maybe we catch them hell-bent after a few brutal losses. We play Portland twice in a 4 day span in early January. Both teams will be rested for the first game in Portland. The Rockets play the next night in Denver then have a night off before hosting the Blazers. Portland gets a night off then plays back-to-back in Dallas and Houston. I like our chances in the second game, but Portland has the edge in the first. For the third game, both teams will be rested. This is the last game of a 3 game Portland home stand, but the second of a 3 games in 4 nights road trip for Houston. We should be well-rested a week after the all-star break, but you have to favor Portland here. We get 2 home games against the Jazz. They got Al Jefferson and Raja Bell, but lost Boozer and Korver. I still think they'll suck on the road too. The first game features both teams on the second night of a back-to-back, but it's in Houston. Advantage: Rockets. The game in Utah featuers a well-rested Jazz fresh off playing 3 scrub teams. The Rockets, however, are in the midst of @Mavs, @Spurs, @Lakers, @Jazz, Grizz, @Nuggets. We also draw the Jazz on the second night of a back-to-back. Tough one to win right there. The third game features relatively well-rested teams, although this is the first of 4 games in 5 nights (and 5 in 7 overall) for Utah. They'll probably want to get the first game, but they also blow chunks on the road. Houston will take this series this year. I like our chances against Phoenix. No more A'mare, who always killed our big men. We play them in Houston first, when both teams will be pretty well-rested. I'll take the Rockets there. We play them in Phoenix, when the Rockets are the second night of a back-to-back. Not a good situation for tired legs, so I'll pick Phoenix there. We play them again 6 nights later in Houston, and this is decidedly in our favor. The Rockets have 3 nights off, host the Spurs, then another night off before hosting the Suns. The Suns face @Thieves, Rockets, Nuggets, Magic, @Rockets, @Hornets in an 11 day stretch. They face the Rockets on the second night of a back-to-back after matching up with the Magic. I like our chances against some weary Phoenix legs.
Yao >> Bynum Scola < Gasol Battier = Artest Martin << Kobe Brooks >> Fisher. If we dont win the west next season, Adelman should be fired.
Have you watched OKC play (I'm not asking this in a condescending or accusatory way)? Westbrook, Sefalosha, Durant, Green and Ibaka are all skilled, big, and athletic, play both ends of the floor, rebound, hustle. These guys aren't just upside and hype. They are legitimately good. If you put a true center on this team -- say a Gortat -- to clog the paint, they would be a WCF team. I agree we're very closely matched up with Portland, but I have to give them the slight advantage b/c of Brandon Roy. They have an elite closer, we don't.
Thunder team is not overrated they are Legit with a dynamic duo of Westbrook and Durant who havent reach their full potential yet and still have more room to grow. Durant is clearly the Future and the Face of the NBA and will clearly become the Best player in the NBA for years to come and the kid is only what 21 years old!
As to Dallas, I think that's a credible scenario, particularly since we have seen Dirk choke quite a bit. I don't think you are properly considering the Yao fronting issue, which Haywood and Chandler would be well suited to execute. Also, I think it's a stretch to say that Battier and Butler are close. Butler's just a better player. I'm not sure that Brooks can get to the rim with Haywood and Chandler in the paint. I'm not saying we dont' have a shot, but it's advantage Dallas. As to Portland, maybe I like Brandon Roy too much but he is a much better player than Martin. Batum is similarly better than Battier, but neither dominate the ball so it's not as big an issue. Battier better be able to limit Roy or else we're in trouble. I can't fathom how you could say Scola and Aldrich are equal. That's a mismatch and there's no two ways about it. Finally, as to Yao, Portland fronted him successfully and the big question is whether our perimeter scorers can take advantage. It's a close matchup but I question how you underrate an established tandem like Roy and Aldrich.
He played defense two ways - regular defense and freaky fro defense? (you make a good point). But you look at the rest of those guys and it was a wonderfully balanced team.
This argument is meaningless seeing as we beat Dallas and Portland twice last season without Yao and Miller.
I don't particularly care about the imbalance with LA, we're not going to tie them record wise. I'm just glad to be playing 3 games instead of 4. I do care about the Portland situation and wish it were otherwise. We could easily be talking about a tiebreaker here and need to steal one. I'd be a little surprised if we're talking tiebreaker with Utah and Phx, but that's a possibility if health is a problem for us. The portland imbalance situation sucks. Edit - tried to rep you: You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to ScriboErgoSum again.
You've been so on point with your analysis lately, but this paragraph here is straight out of bizarro world. 1) Kidd's game was never about drawing double teams. And he doesn't need to guard Brooks. They could easily put him on Martin. They actually put him on Kobe and other star wings. 2) He's older now, but historically you cannot sag off Terry. Even a bit. He's a certified Rocket-killer even with Battier on him. Why even talk up Martin's length and speed? He hasn't used either on defense so far. 3) Dirk has not had trouble with Scola. It's the other way around. We have as much of an answer for him as the mavs do for Yao.
