Sen. John Edwards set to quit Presidential Run (Breaking News)

thanks.

 

strong words. personally i really don't think hillary needs it much. if he was splitting the anti-hillary vote, people will just goto Obama anyway. if he was splitting the white vote, they'll simply goto hillary.

 

Wow, the one guy Obama's actually beaten in a real election.

 

I know, right?

 

I would expect Obama to have, at least, somewhat closed some of that gap, but that's not the point. CW seemed to say that most of Edwards votes would go to Obama. It looks like that's not the case. Even if Edwards' endorsement/Obama's SC win closes the 15% gap and they split Edwards' vote 50-50, it's still a net loss for Obama. To take a cynical view, endorsement really don't matter if there are not delegates to go along with it.

Previous to today, down 10 points nation-wide, one of Obama's best hope for winning the nomination was to split a delegate battle across the nation and go into a brokered convention where Edwards, having split the white vote w/ clinton, would play "king-maker". Him dropping out now, before supersuper tuesday, pretty much eliminates that possibility. Maybe i'm missing someting but now, after his SC bump, still down 10% pts nation-wide, he's going to have to do something extraordinary to win the nomination. I hope he does, but Edwards dropping out (and this is not even getting into Edwards possibly endorsing Clinton) takes away one possible path to the nomination.

 

I agree with the gist of this - that Obama's best path was probably a split delegation and then Edwards pledging his delegates to Obama. However, I'm not sure what happens from here, except that this will now be decided pre-convention for sure. There's another promising avenue opening up - outright beating Hillary straight-up. It's more possible today than it was a week ago. If Obama can get, say, 2/3rd of Edwards voters, that helps a lot (an endorsement may help in that regard). It's unclear just how far back Obama is nationally right now because there's been an odd lack of polls this week. The few that have trickled out show huge gains. I'm not sure how reliable they are, but:

Gallup: Shows Obama's national deficit down to 6. He was down 16 a week ago and has steadily gained at least one point each of the last six days.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/...tional_lead_over_obama_down_to_six_points.php

Massachusetts: Down 6% (was down 30+ a week or two ago)
New York: Down 11% (was down 30+ a week or two ago)
Connecticut: Tied (was down 20+ a few weeks ago)

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/...t_obama_only_down_by_six_in_massachusetts.php

Who knows if this will continue or if these are reliable. Tomorrow's debate is an opportunity for Hillary, moreso than Obama. She's better at debates, and she needs the focus to come back to her. Some "pundits" suggested Edwards' announcement this morning was designed to kill any Hillary momentum from Florida - she got absolutely zero coverage today. Who knows if that's true - but why did Edwards wait until today? Why not drop out immediately after SC?

Obama needs to keep the momentum up - but if he's really making up ground at the rate these polls suggest, Super Tuesday could be a wash, and then the rest of the February schedule supposedly is favorable to Obama (don't really know enough to confirm this).

 

Rasmussen Polls seem to really like Obama, which makes me a bit suspicious, but this says he's within 3 in California.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...08_california_democratic_presidential_primary

 

Rasmussen was the poll that started all the mess in NH with their “Obama up by 14 points” BS. I'll be taking anything they say with a grain of salt the size of a deer lick. Plus they've always been conservative leaning and I can't shake the feeling that they're fudging the numbers to mess with the other polling data.

They will be watched, oh yes they will...

 

maybe, maybe no

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Rasmussen's last poll in NH was +7, which was the smaller than the the average - Zogby was the goofy one:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Rasmussen also was "closest" on SC with +15:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html

That said, Rasmussen is a robopoll, so I don't know how that affects things. Are certain groups more likely to hang up, etc? Who knows. Hopefully more polls from other groups come out soon. I'm surprised there's been NOTHING from California and other big states all week long.

 

all I know is his poll has Obama down by only 3% in Cali which seems to be quite low as I'm sure I've seen Obama down by double digits in California in other polls.

 

I knew I heard that 14 number somewhere?

 

I definitely am an unreliable and apparently biased poll! I did so well with the GOP. Stupid NH screwed up all my Dem predictions.

 

Could be a fantastic sign... It's Rasmussen again, unfortunately, but this is their daily tracking poll. Obama has been down about 8-12 pts fairly consistently. See here:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...2/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

Yesterday's results (3-day tracking) show Obama down 7. But more importantly is this little nugget:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Hillary Clinton 42% and Barack Obama 35%. (see recent daily numbers). Last night was the first night of interviews without John Edwards in the race. For last night’s data alone, Clinton and Obama were essentially even. Samples for individual nights are very small and results should be interpreted with caution. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Friday at 11:00 a.m.

As they mention, one day is not reliable - but if this trend holds tomorrow, that could signal that Edwards supporters went in mass to Obama.

 

Well, I was supposed to be voting on super tuesday here in Arizona, but just got word this morning that I have to go to Dallas for work, leaving Monday. DAMN! And it is too late to do an early vote.

I did go to the Obama ralley in Phoenix yesterday, it was amazing, the buzz and atmosphere was great. He's such a great speaker.

 

You were right on the money on everything so far except for NH. I still think something shady may have been going on in NH. It just didn't make any sense.

 

heres a campaign flyer sent out from the side railing against divisive politics.

 

Bush talked more about Kerry, because he didn't have much to talk about himself. Same pattern here again.

BTW, after Obama tried so hard to get to Washington, and is trying even harder to stay in Washington now, he doesn't have any thinking related to Washington, and doesn't have any interest in Washington. Well, that explains why he didn't even show up in 33 of 99 voting, exactly 1/3. Too bad, Washington doesn't provide a "present" option. No wonder he likes IL thinking better.

It's never about issue, it's always about spin. I thought there would be CHANGE, how naive I am.

 

Actually it's pretty common when Senators start campaigning to miss more votes. I have no idea if most of his missed votes have happened in the last year or not, so that stat may or may not be important.

either way I would rather him miss votes than do things like vote for the Iraq war, and then later vote a similar way about Iran showing that he hadn't learned a thing.