Second Half Expectations

I think we're going to hit 87-89 without any significant trades. I really do see this team on that kind of trajectory. I love our bullpen, the lineup has really stabilized with Valbuena really hitting well, and I believe that Reed (and Bregman) will show they are worthy of their prospect ranking.

Now if we can package some of our top ten (but not top five) prospects and land a front line starter and/or an impact bat (that hits the hell out of lefties) then I think the sky is the limit.

 

With Boston & Toronto playing really well right now the wild card is going to be tough.

 

sure if the season ended today, the wild card would be impossible. But the season is just at the intermission with the twists and turns yet to reveal.

I think we eventually finish with 88 or 89 wins. They can play alex at 3rd some and have him at DH when Gattis is catching with valbuena at 1st.

 

They have a bunch of games left with each other.... And Baltimore.

It's usually pretty rare for 3 teams to come out of one division, unless the rest of the league is god-awful (which isn't the case right now). I know the NL Central had all 3 last year (in the midst of down years from SF and Washington).

Even last year's 3-team race between the Rangers-Astros-Angels was a very rare occurrence, and in the end a team gets cancelled out by the other two.

The most fortunate aspect for the Astros right now is that KC has fallen on hard times. I also don't expect Detroit to elevate their play more than they have. If the AL Central AND the Mariners both fade, the Astros could be assured of at least the 2nd WC spot given how the AL East will beat each other up.

 

Just 6 between Boston and Toronto. Baltimore has 9 with Toronto and 9 with Boston.

 

So like I said... a bunch of games with each other!

But seriously...24 games left between the 3 is nothing to scoff at. A lot can change in the standings with just that.

 

87 wins would be disappointing to me. It would indicate we play the 2nd half like we did the first half - but we played a month of the first half horribly. We should be better than 39-34 the rest of the way if we play reasonably well. And if we don't play well, then that's a disappointment.

 

What happened to KC's starting pitching? Ventura, Volquez and Young should be one of the top trios in MLB, but they have been horrible this year. KC's bullpen is still one of the better bullpens, and their lineup hits for average as well as most of the teams in the league. The injuries to Moustakas and Gordon didn't help, but the starting pitching really took a step back this year.

 

Over his last 9 starts, Dallas Keuchel has a 3.59 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. He's starting to pitch like a good pitcher again. Not the Ace of the last 2 years, but good.

The Fiers/Fister combo concerns me. Fiers hasn't been good overall,and pretty disappointing to me. But for the most part I think there is stability to his sub-par but not terrible performance.

Fister on the other hand continues to massively outperform his xFIP and SIERA. Unless you pitch for the f**king Rangers , there's no evidence you can outperform those numbers, it's merely a matter of when not if you start performing near that level. He may survive the season outperforming, it's been done plenty, but it feels like a trapdoor that's waiting to fall out.

 

Ventura has never been a consistent starter. He was demoted around this time last season. People hoped he would take a leap soon/this year, but it was far from a guarantee. Young has been ok but not great in recent years and is 37. No one expected him to be a good starter this year. And Volquez has been mediocre pretty much his entire career. He had that one year in Pitt when his ERA was lower than it should've been, but otherwise he's never been great.

Basically, KC's rotation never had a shot at being good. They had to hope to be reasonable, let the badass bullpen dominate, and hit enough to win games. Without Moustakas, Gordon (not the injury, but his suck), Cain (again sucking before the injury), Zobrist gone again, and Perez's continued decline to a lesser degree...they've been pretty poor hitting as well.

IMO they're lucky to be where they are in the standings. They aren't even that good right now.

 

Still think we should try to get Carlos Beltran.

Having him fill in that full-time DH spot would solve a big problem.

 

Well, which is it?

 

Unhappiness is best defined as the difference between what the Astros could do and what they don't do.

 

I expect world domination.


I'll settle for 90 wins and a playoff spot.

 

He may start to suck this year, he may start to suck next year, but he's going to start pitching poorly all historical evidence points to this.

If he manages to survive this season I would chalk it more up to luck, and would want no part of being the team that signs him next year.

 

I don't consider 6 a bunch, but 9 and 9 is.

 

study break predictions:

HOU finishes 2nd in WC (89 W), 2.5 GB of TEX (who acquire Chapman). Win @Fenway to because screw ESPN and the East Coast. TEX loses to CLE in R1, we beat BAL in R1.

2nd half:

Kuechel: 2.85 ERA
McHugh: 3.15 ERA
LMJ: 3.45 ERA

Astros stand pat at the trade deadline. No SPs acquired, sans a low-key lefty specialist, a la Boone Logan in COL. Reinforcements (Bregxit and Musgrove) arrive on Aug. 1, fresh for our homestand against TOR.

In 55 games with the club, Bregman slashes .281/.319/.500 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, 38 R.

Spoiler

Stros over Nats in 6

 

If the Rangers give up top prospects and it isn't for pitching, I'll be fine with that

I think we drastically underperformed early on and our recent play is much more representative of our talent level. I'll be disappointed if we finish with less than 90 wins

As far as winning division or wild card, I'll worry about things we can't control in September. Right now I want Bregman, and 90+

 

Missing the playoffs would be disappointing. If we make the playoffs, I won't get too upset at any outcome. Astros have a good core in place, and still have a deep farm system in place as well as the lowest payrolls. Any year the Astros could potentially spend big and become championship favorites - right now we are just maintaining our longevity and flexibility.

Making the playoffs are my expectations, but no matter what happens the Astros have a very bright future.

 

My predictions of things that will happen by August 1st...

Bregman will be called up. Possibly as soon as the series in Oakland starting on Monday but no later than the series against NYY at home starting on 7/25.

Devenski will switch spots with Fiers and finish the season in the rotation.

No major trade will be made. Possibly a move for another bullpen arm but I'd expect Hoyt to be given a chance at some point.

Musgrove will be called up Sept 1 and will be another long arm out of the pen.

We'll catch up to the Rangers but ultimately finish as the WC #2.