Sorry, but we're talking about an NBA franchise here. The rules are different. For a team that's been valued by Forbes with the 3rd highest Team Value in the NBA behind the Knicks and Lakers, along with an operating income of $25 million in 2005, I don't think it's too much for the sports fan to expect that trying to win will supercede "smart business". Especially since winning ultimately is "smart business" where sports are generally concerned. If you look at the two Finals teams, you'll find this concept playing out. Dallas is well known for putting winning in front of dollars in an effort to make more dollars. And look where they're at, two wins away from a title. And while Cuban has had to scale back some of his more lavish roster aquisitions (like 4 max contracts and a couple other big contracts), he's still well over the luxury tax. And I doubt he's hurting that much in the pocket-book. And while Miami isn't in the luxury tax this year. They've still committed a lot of money to Shaq and a bunch of their role players, and this summer they will undoubtedly re-up Wade to the max, thereby shooting their future committed salaries into the stratosphere. They're basically be us with more expensive role players. And when you consider that rookies who pan out are the most cost effective players in the league, buying a lottery draft pick is a risk worth taking IMO. BTW. No way would I give up the #32 along with our future first rounder. And I doubt that we would have to. 2007 is supposed to be a strong draft and everyone knows it. So it's value is a little bit better than a normal 1st round draft pick. Not to mention the uncertainty over our team. Seattle could very well choose to bet on the possiblity that we don't bounce back and end up having a bad season. Edited to Add: BTW, the chances of one of those "top picks" falling to us aren't that bad. It seems like Sheldon Williams is going to Atlanta at #5. If one other team reaches out of the widely projected top 6 in Gay, Thomas, Roy, Aldridge, Morrison, and Bargnani, that means that one of them will fall to us. And with PGs and Cs generally being such an overvalued draft pick, some team could very well reach for Foye, M. Williams, or O'Bryant Grab one of the droppers at #8, and pick up Brewer (or Carney if the Warriors scoop up Brewer) at #10 and we're in business.
But hasn't this franchise constantly shown that they are fairly aware of the implications of the luxury tax, and taken measures to avoid it in the past few years? Take your pick of the decision not to resign James Posey, the Glen Rice Salary Dump, the waiving of the Expiring Contracts of Clarence Weatherspoon and Vin Baker, the decision to keep David Wesley at the trade deadline; whether the franchise should be more willing to take on more salary and pay the Luxury Tax is moot when they haven't shown a willingness to do so unless it is a slam dunk proposition. Dallas is a product of using expiring contracts and excellent scouting to constantly maintain and increase their talent level, turning Christian LaettnerJuwan into Van Exel and Raef, into Antoine and Antawn, into Jason Terry, Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse. Along the way they've eaten such contracts as Tariq-Abdul Wahad, Evan Eschmeyer and Danny Fortson, made pricey mistakes on Antoine Rigaudeau and Shawn Bradley and overpaid for Marquis Daniels and Erick Dampier, as well as paying Michael Finley $52 Million to play for the other other team in Texas. Dallas has unquestionably made moves that are financially unsound but still lead to winning. They've made quite a few mistakes on their road to sucess, mistakes that would cripple almost any other franchise, Houston included. The terrible trio of Cato, Norris and Taylor were an albatross at the beginning of the millenium for us, while for Dallas, they would have been mere speedbumps to be cut or traded for even worse contracts, as long as there's talent coming back. As much as many posters want us to follow Dallas's model, Les Alexander has shown a propensity for thrift and a reluctance to pay the tax when the rewards aren't huge. Like you said, Miami is not paying the tax yet, and has been pretty fiscally responsible since they acquired Shaq. They've danced around the borderline for a number of years now, and were willing to pay in order to take a legitimate shot at the title. The bill will be coming soon in Miami, and it won't be pretty, but if they win the Championship this year or the next, they'll have a grace period where they can dismantle the team and avoid paying too much for aging veterans. This pretty much brings me to my point; that we're not like Dallas, where management can indiscriminantly ignore fiscal responsibility in the name of incremental talent upgrades. Rather, Houston will more likely follow the path of Miami, where we will probably dance around the luxury tax for a number of years until a championship run is possible, and break the bank then, and only then, when sucess is clearly in sight. If we can get a starter and a rotational player in this draft, then like I said, I'm all for trading up and getting them, and I hope Houston's heads are as well. That would certainly be the slam dunk/home run/sports cliche risky acquisition that the franchise has become known for. However, if it is management's opinion that only rotational players can be had in the middle section of the lottery, then I see no reason why they would essentially pay multiple millions of dollars to pick up a player who may be just as good as a player we could acquire next year in a draft that is "so much stronger" than this one. Finally, on the question of the value of the pick: consider that when the Bulls traded for Phoenix's pick, Phoenix was desperately trying to clear cap space to make runs at Kobe and Nash, probably devaluing what they got back. Next, consider that Chicago was coming off seasons of 17, 15, 21, 30 and 23 wins, with no noticeable improvement in sight. That is about as choice a future pick as you can get (excluding the Knicks' next year). The Rockets were heavily injured this year, and aren't nearly the lottery guarantee that the Bulls were. If the Suns knew there was a high chance they would be getting the 21st pick in the 2005 draft, there's no way they would have done the trade. Even with all these factors in Chicago's favor, they still had to throw in a high second and cash to get it done.
Oh no doubt about it, I'm coming at it from a fan's perspective. "What I think the Rockets should do" instead of "what I think they will do." And since Les has already leveraged Yao and T-mac into a massive cable contract, I don't think it's too much to ask that he reinvest in his product. That Glen Rice deal truly pissed me off. It gave up a "basketball" asset in a first rounder for a "real world" asset in cash. Giving away draft picks like that is pretty much the reason why we are completely empty in depth. As for how much the #10 is worth. We'll see what it fetches. Historically speaking there seems to be a definite dropoff between the value of a #7 pick and a #10 pick. And it does seem that the value of these 2007 picks are a bit more inflated than a typical draft. Maybe a swapping of 2nd rounders is in order, but I doubt Seattle will get a future 1st, a present 2nd and cash out of their draft pick.
If you ask Feigen about this, he will tell you that Alexander REFUSES to pay luxury tax. However, I do remember Les saying that under the right circumstance hw ould pay $3 million, and he meant going $3 million over, which would actually be a total cost of $6 million. He said that would be like a case of acquiring another superstar or re-signing Yao or T-Mac. He said he would spend up to $150 million to re-sign Yao. So if you take all that into account, plus moneyball, plus Morey....... what does that tell you, along with Rockets making all this money? It tells you Alexander can say whatever he wants about winning, but he's operating it strictly to make money, as long as he just has a decent product and Yao the team makes money.
The only way that is going to happen- ie to be in contention to get Oden- will be to have something serious happen to our stars- worse than what happened this year. 1. IF that happens- we have more problems that we ever bargained for - so a draft pick will hardly be the biggest worry. 2. If The stars are healthy- and we add decent players, and I am optimistic, then the First Rounder in 2007 will have little or no value. Infact the perceieved value of the 2007 pick is what we should capitalize on this year- to get the most mileage. 3. This draft is shallow- not terrible. Gauging talent is not easy when there are minor differences between players. If we have to get younger and have talent this draft is a great opportunity. For the next 2 years- we will not be able to make significant moves- and those 2 years could be critical. Losing 1 more year is too valuable - in terms of Yao And Tracy being together. By all means Explore every option- who on this board wants a repeat of last year?
The notion that we should somehow not go over the salary cap is ridiculous even if you are a owner who is parsimonious. In Fact it is down right foolish. If we can get a Randy Foye/Marcus Williams , Shelden/Cedric Simmons, and A Ronnie Brewer/Reddick- with the prospect of shipping out Stro - we should absolutely trade our First round pick (Seattle) to seattle. Infact if we can do a deal that involves Danny Fortson- that would be even better. With the second round pick go for Steve Novak. And Get a Veteran Starting SG for the MLE ( Bonzi may be costly- but Matt Harpring will be OK) Although there will be a lot of Rookies- Only Shelden will be playing big minutes. And Shelden is ready to play. This covers all the 3 needs we have- makes us younger
We're one McGrady back spasm away from being lottery bound again next year. Even with top 5 restrictions, we can't afford to trade that pick. Hypothetically speaking, if McGrady goes down again (which is a very realistic possibility), even if both our #10 and #8 pan out, we're still not good enough to make the playoffs. You have to keep that safety net for next year when there is so much in question regarding your future.
Still not going to happen, because just like this year, our coach will be busting tail down the stretch to hang as many Ws up as possible. So, we will wind up like this year, winning games when other teams are tanking around us.
Don't trade next years pick. If this year taught us anything it's that we shouldn't make assumptions.
So, don't make assumptions that we will be able to get any quality next year and go ahead and trade the pick.
Two very interesting posts. It's hard for me to argue with either one, which leaves us between the proverbial rock and a hard place. We saw how this last season played out. That's what we have to go by. If Yao stays healthy for the entire season next year, and has a decent supporting cast, I have no doubt that we'll make the playoffs, even without, god forbid, McGrady, but if we have similar depth as we had this past season, will we do anything once there? My take is not much. We have to deepen the bench on this team, and we have to take into consideration the simple (and damned complicated) fact that we don't know if we'll have Tracy for the bulk of the season. You can't realistically replace a top five player when you are paying 2 max salaries. We have a coach who showed us that he won't tank regardless of what other teams do, or how incredibly unlikely we are to make the big dance. In my opinion, that puts our '07 1st round pick in play for a trade. Other teams are going to see it as chancy, as far as being a sure lotto pick, but they are also going to see the same risks to our season next year that most of us do. If Tracy stays healthy the whole season, along with Yao, then we win more than 50 games, regardless of the supporting cast, and no one is going to want to face us in the playoffs. If he misses 50 games, we're screwed. In fact, there are endless scenarios where we would be screwed, depending on when Tracy was out, were he to be out. We have to get depth. Seriously good depth. Use the '07 #1, try to move up, or try to acquire someone who's a third scorer and/or can replace Tracy if he goes down. Other people around here know a hell of a lot more about college talent than I do, but if we can't get someone who can step in and fill some of the numerous holes we have, right away, and not 2 seasons down the road, then you have to use our picks in trade to get damned good depth. If we can move up to get an immediate impact player, with a good future, then you do it. If not, trade the damn picks for known quantities. In my opinion.
I have no idea how we'll do next year. But a draft pick has value, either by the actual player drafted or by trade. There's no assumption in that. Not having one ties your hands in the event of the unexpected. Consider it a safety net. That's why GM's put protection on picks, because they don't naturally assume their team's future is bright and sunny like you are right now.
Maybe we do them a favor and send them our pick and cash? Let's take Wilkins off their hands for our TE. Let's offer them our 2nd rounder, a cheap way to get a good player. Let's give them cash too!! 2nd rounder + chunk of TE + cash for Damien Wilkins + #10 pick Mostly, this saves them a lot of money. Wilkins is owed 12M over 4 seasons, and they don't really want/need him. TE is a decent trade asset for them. 2nd rounder can EASILY net a player better than Wilkins, and will most probably net them SOMEONE good on a very cheap contract. In exchange for all these benefits, they give up the 10th. They say they're selling it, well in this deal we're buying it for about 12M + some more cash. Pretty damn good if you ask me.
We NEED to do whatever it takes to be the best the way i see it every owner in the league should have their budgets set up to where they only make money off the playoffs and money that is given to them as a result of the playoffs!
H-dub - you are pretty brave sith somebody elses money. Couple of quick questions. 1) Do the Knicks match up to your management style? 2) Are you a contrubiting member?
Can you picture our next years roster if the rockets have the#8 and #10 pick plus the TE and MLE: #8: Brewer or if someone who falls out the top 7 #10: Carney or JJ Redick or Foye or Ager MLE: Mike James(Insurance just in case Tmac has back problems) or Vspan and some other player. TE: D. Stevenson In addition to our current roster: TMac,Yao,Stro,Jhoward,Hayes,Alston,Head, Mutumbo The team looks pretty quick with off the court.
Draftexpress says that seattle is looking to move their #10 for either a solid 2007 pick, or early 2nd rounder this year plus cash. They don't want to pay guaranteed salary this year on a draft pick, they want to hire an assistant coach. The #32 plus 3mil cash could get us another lotto pick. Should we do it? We could get Brewer and Carney. That's a huge lineup. Or if luck falls our way, we could get Roy and Brewer. But that's just dream scenario.
Yes the knicks do match up not in personel but at least they do everything they can think of to win and you should realize um this is a post board not real life im saying thats the way it should be done not the way it will be done
