For everyone who stayed awake to watch Game 4 in Utah, you'll know what I mean when I write the following: When two teams play that hard, that physical and that smart, it's hard to call either team the loser of the game. Teams can strategize, plot and execute all they want in basketball, but making shots is the best path to winning. And these two teams made such supreme efforts on defense, in transition and in the screening game, but the shooters simply couldn't shoot straight. Houston was pushed so hard -- in dealing with the home crowd, a 2-1 series deficit and the terrific play of Utah -- that its best effort in a must-win game was a 29-for-79 (36.7 percent) shooting performance from the field. And the Jazz were so stretched to the limit -- by the Rockets' incredible toughness, rotating discipline and ability to make one clutch play after another -- that their shooters went 0-for-14 from 3. This game equaled the terrific Spurs-Suns Game 1 thriller, in terms of the effort put forth by each player, and it did so without the overtime periods. So the challenge for each team in Game 5 is to find a way to fight each possession the way they did in Utah's 86-82 win. As previously stated, these two teams are evenly matched, so one quarter of lackluster play could, and probably would, change the outcome of the game. Houston needs to spend some time working on ways to slow down Deron Williams. For the first time in the series he scored by using his team's offense, shuffle cutting into the paint and using his superior size to finish. Utah also smartly went to a "flat" set, pushing everyone down to the baseline and only letting Boozer roam up the floor, threatening to set a flat, high screen for Williams at the top. Twice in key situations Williams blew by Rafer Alston and scored. The Rockets can't let him do that in a similar situation with their playoff lives at stake. Utah also ran a nice 4-around-1 set for Paul Millsap, who can score over Carl Landry inside. Do the Rockets give that up and hope for Landry to make the play on his own, or bring help and force a kick out? Williams played with excellent pace, using ball screens to get to a good spot on the perimeter, then settling for a moment before attacking the recovering Rockets defenders. Houston can't relax when it sees Williams settle. One thing Jazz coach Jerry Sloan will remind his players of is to be "ball strong" around the basket. Houston has played the best "under the shoulders" defense in the paint that I have seen this season, constantly knocking the basketball out of Utah players' hands as they get set to score. Chuck Hayes, Luis Scola and Landry are particularly good at this. Despite shooting poorly, Houston made a lot of nice reads against Utah's switching defenders. Since it switched "guard-to-guard" ball screens, Houston could always get the matchup it wanted with Tracy McGrady by simply having him set the screen on the ball. He was able to overpower Williams, and Houston ran some nice give-and-go's off McGrady inside. But Utah just wants to keep five guys in front of McGrady at all times, so switching is acceptable to it. Houston's spacing efforts were still poor on occasion, especially when Landry flashed middle just as McGrady was backing his guy down in that area. It doesn't just clog the lane, but also brings a defender in position to quickly double McGrady. Landry can make the 15-foot baseline jumper, so I would expect him to stay there more often, only flashing if his man leaves to double. Houston also let Bobby Jackson be more aggressive when Kyle Korver guarded him, so Utah needs to be aware of helping this quickness mismatch. One of the best things Utah did in Game 3 was ask Matt Harpring to crowd McGrady on the perimeter, taking away any shot and forcing him to drive into the teeth of the defense. It also works to wear him down, because Harpring is one of the strongest wing defenders in the league. The Jazz mixed up their double-team actions again as well, but even though he is not shooting well, McGrady is reading everything adeptly. Despite 39 rugged minutes and everyone clustered around him, he recorded eight assists to just two turnovers. That's terrific stuff. Utah must expect Houston to shoot better back at home, so it needs to be smarter at choosing who to rotate on in scramble situations, dictating toward the player who has not shot as well in that particular game. Shane Battier might be a better shooter, but if Alston or Bobby Jackson make a few, closing out on them is appropriate. And Houston can't expect Utah to miss another 14 straight 3s, though most of them were closed out effectively, they were still good, open shots. If Utah makes its fair share of 3s, it will be very tough to beat. It's broken record time, as once again I have to flip a coin to predict the winner. This series has been, probably, the best one in either conference thus far, and I expect another nail-biter in Houston. It will be so tough for Houston to rise up and take this game after such a devastating Game 4 loss, but this team is all about toughness, both mental and physical. PREDICTION: Rockets win Game 5 David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for ESPN.com and the executive director of the Pro Training Center at the IMG Academies in Bradenton, Fla., where he oversees the player development program for NBA and college players. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/columns/story?page=ScoutingRocketsJazz-Game5
