Scott Rasmussen: In general, my projections were pretty good

Sandy may have made a difference in the popular vote, I don't doubt that. But yeah, it did seem to have little effect on electoral votes. Still find it annoying that voters would have such positive feelings about a politician after a disaster. Seems kind of weird. It's not like if Romney were president, he would just tell them to go screw themselves. Even if that was his campaign slogan.

 

I think the storm did allow people to imagine what government would be like if the Repugs had their way. When your platform is all about dismantling government and leaving people to fend for themselves that's a stark reality.

We are a lot stronger and more resilient when we have leadership and a coordinated effort.

 

To be clear, there's nothing shallow about staffing FEMA with trained pros and treating it like a real agency with a real mission, and proactively working with state officials like during 1992-2000, and 2008-12, and treating it like a dumping ground for party hacks and saying it's immoral, which is what happened during both Bush administrations.

THe theory that this pushed Obama over the top is bunk though...this may have helped him pad his lead in NJ/CT but in the swing states? Really no evidence of that.

 

Last night my brother posted on my Facebook that he "hopes Obama falls down the stairs and breaks his neck." Every family has one. Some have many

 

I doubt that anyone in that 15% was thinking about staffing decisions and bureaucracy. Just be honest Sam. Other people are capable of having an honest conversation about it. No need to spin it. Some 15% of people made a decision for president based on a really odd factor.

 

Where I think it can have a subtle impact is that it shows the value of government. The general GOP philosophy is that government is bad, incompetent, etc. In a crisis, you see the benefits of government in very clear and stark terms, so it eats at that caricature.

Also, a crisis allows a President to show leadership skills. Just as Bush's response after 9/11 was praised, it lets you see a President doing their job and evaluate him. The opposite example was Katrina - and how the Bush administration proved fairly inept managing that disaster. A crisis is an opportunity for a President to shine - but he actually has to do a good job to get the benefit. And that's how it should be if you're evaluating someone's job performance. It's an extra data point in the column of "President did well."

 

Ask her this:

The Bible says Satan will come to Earth, and then that will be the beginning of the rapture where Jesus will return, defeat Satan, and the saved ones will get to be with God, yes? If so, then Satan returning to earth should be a good thing, right? Why would it make her upset? It means the rapture is almost here.

 

So wait, even if I accept that 15% number as dead solid true nationwide (and you shouldn't, but no need to get into it - you think federal goverment proactively and effectively fulfiiling its duty to protecting its citizens in a natural disaster scenario is "a really odd factor" -> especially when contrasted with a group that thinks that duty shouldn't apply and has a history of neglecting it?

Here's what I think are "really odd factors" to base your decision on:

- Obama looking down and taking notes and politely not-interjecting in the Denver debate.

- The idea that reducing government spending somehow creates economic growth/jobs.

- The idea that tax cuts will cure the deficit

A lot more people seem to have made a decision on those factors, all of which are either odd, or have no empirical or factual basis...rendering them odd, to be generous.

 

Actually I believe that Satan coming to Earth occurs after the Rapture. (Though I admit that my rapture theology expertise is weak!)

My understanding of the theology is that scripture teaches that the body of christ must be removed from the earth before the anti-christ is unleashed on humanity to begin the tribulation. The body of christ is the church. Therefore the rapture would occur first.

But, your overall point that the lack of understanding when calling someone the anti-christ is ridiculous. If you believe in scripture you should have no fear of the anti-christ. According to scripture if you are a believer you won't be here to see it.

 

I think it is an odd factor to have as your "most important" reason considering the issues at play in this election.

 

Thanks for clarifying/explaining - that makes sense and this is certainly not my area of expertise!

 

You added these after I quoted you, but this is a silly edit on your part.

The first item you listed is of course a really stupid reason, yes.

The next two aren't odd reasons. They may not be true, but those are basically economic policy. You think economic policy is an odd reason to vote for someone?

What they believe may be inaccurate, but what they believe about economic policies seems like a perfectly reasonable factor in picking a candidate.

 

I don't think people wanting a government that tries (and in this instance, succeeds) to/in helping folks in need is odd at all, rather than one that doesn't try and finds trying "immoral".

h

They're also demonstrably wrong to anybody with common sense. I could say we should go on the banana standard and replace our dollar bills with bananas. That's an economic policy - but like the two I mentioned, it is ludicrous.

 

It's not mine either so don't take it to the bank.

Either way, it was irrelevant and your general point was still dead on.

 

Sandy may have played a part. I think Obama's recovery in the debates helped a lot too.

And finally, I do think the economic rebound made a difference as well.

It was a very close election. I think it's best that Obama won - it's almost as if the American people are saying - hey you fools we aren't going to change just because you won't compromise and hope you can get rid of the other side.

People want divided gov't - they don't trust EITHER party. They want stability. And they want our politicians to solve problems and stop stonewalling.

I think it's remarkable that nothing changed hands at all during this election - that might be historic in and of itself.

People are saying - get to work and finish the job - Obama & Congress.

 

i think we also had a lot of horses was the difference. you think white working class people in ohio gave a damn about sandy or more about gm/chrysler and henry ford that is.

you conservatives, and your wacky ideas, yeah god sent sandy or maybe the devil did to insure the victory of the ant christ


bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

thank you sam, although i must say every president after bush II has the luxury of knowing what not taking FEMA and disasters seriously can lead to.

 

What in the world are you talking about?

"You conservatives and your wacky ideas"

You make a statement like that and then present some r****ded idea that I've never said and don't hold to.

By the way, this "you conservative" has slammed the GOP, supports immigration reform that basically includes amnesty, wants higher taxes on the rich, supports the legalization gay marriage, the legalization and taxation of mar1juana...

Not sure why I took you off ignore. Your just as foolish as always.

 

Obama "staffing FEMA with trained pros and treating it like a real agency with a real mission, and proactively working with state officials like during 1992-2000, and 2008-12"

led to

"Obama looking cool in his jacket and Chris Christie saying how awesome he was"

led to

"15% of people made a decision for president"