Based on the recent history of guard prospects of Scoot's caliber, I think there's a strong possibility his production is very close to KPJ's even as a rookie, and he will likely get better every year after that. In any case, you don't draft based on need. It doesn't really matter what KPJ is doing. You take the best player available.
Here are some rookie seasons from top 5 pick guards in recent drafts Luka Doncic: 21, 8, and 7 on .545 TS% Trae Young: 19, 8, and 4 on .539 TS% Ja Morant: 18, 7, and 4 on .556 TS% RJ Barrett: 14, 5, and 3 on .479 TS% Darius Garland: 12, 4, and 2 on .498 TS% Anthony Edwards: 19, 3, and 5 on .523 TS% LaMelo Ball: 16, 6, and 6 on .539 TS% Cade Cunningham: 17, 6, and 6 on .504 TS% Jalen Green: 17, 3, and 3 on .547 TS% Jalen Suggs: 12, 4, and 4 on .455 TS% Jaden Ivey: 16, 5, and 4 on .526 TS% And let's keep in mind that Scoot is reportedly right up there with the best prospects on this list as they were at the time of their draft, if not better. He is well above a Jalen Suggs, Darius Garland level prospect (4th & 5th picks). Scouts & analysts believe Scoot would go #1 in most draft classes. So yeah, if you're saying "Scoot will not be as good as KPJ" I don't know why would assume that's the case. Most of the guys on this list were close to the same level as KPJ even as rookies, especially the higher picks. It's possible Scoot will struggle during his rookie season, it happens sometimes. But even if he does, you still take the BPA, you don't worry about what you already have in the cupboard, especially if it's a guy like KPJ who is by no means a superstar or even all-star caliber player. Even a team like OKC that already has a 30 point scorer in SGA would probably take Scoot if they get lucky enough to land at #2 (god forbid, can't imagine how scary they would be with ANOTHER top prospect). Because, say it with me: You don't draft for need, you take the best player.
2. Houston Rockets: Scoot Henderson (G League Ignite, PG, 2004) With Wembanyama off the board, every sign would point to the Rockets addressing their point guard position and valuing Henderson's leadership. Amen Thompson figures to receive some consideration as well, given his superior positional size and passing. But the majority of scouts still feel safer about projecting Henderson, given their comfort level assessing the G League's competition, his production at 19 years old and how his combination of explosiveness and creativity typically translate. 18. Houston Rockets: Rayan Rupert (New Zealand Breakers, SG/SF, 2004) Teams will be eager to bring Rupert in for workouts, given his lack of playing time in the NBL and the hype around his shot-making and 7'3" wingspan for three-and-D.
A possible second path opens up to landing Scoot? https://theathletic.com/4396376/2023/04/10/damian-lillard-blazers/ What would y'all be willing to give up to acquire the second pick if Portland manages to land there? Here are my thoughts: We keep our own first round pick and trade Sengun for the #2 pick straight-up (or with some minor sweeteners from either side). I love what Sengun has shown us this season, but I see Scoot as a #1 pick-caliber talent who has tremendous upside and could end up competing for MVP awards. I think Sengun will be an all-star in the near future, and despite that, I still don't think it's likely we'd regret this trade. I'll bet the first thing Portland asks for in any deal is Sengun or Green, and I think based on everything we've heard, the front office would rather part with Sengun (whether he's the better prospect than Green or not). Some sort of three-team deal. Impossible to predict what this might look like, but the Rockets should try to get involved if anything opens up. Maybe some kind of pick swaparoo where the third team gets our top pick, and Portland gets their mid-first rounder plus a good player? Our own top pick plus one or more of our roleplayers. Likely this would be Eason or KJ Martin, maybe Tate too? Thus giving Portland a roleplayer or two who can help right away and the chance to pick a guy like Brandon Miller/Jarace Walker who can contribute to winning even as rookies.
Sengun is nowhere near worth the #2 pick in the draft, it would have to be a deal where the Rockets give up their own pick AND Sengun or Green to even start the conversation.
I don't think you're exactly an unbiased source on Sengun's or Green's respective values, B. I've heard some independent analysts say Sengun is worth a top 5 pick after what he's shown in the NBA. But even if it required sweeteners (like the Clippers pick) to get the deal done, I'd still consider it. Probably wouldn't give up our own pick in combination with Sengun unless it lands #7. In that case I'd at least consider it.
I absolutely am an unbiased source on their value....that's why the player first and player only fans get so upset that I don't share their blinders. That a team would even consider that kind of deal was me paying them a compliment.
You are, yourself, a KPJ-only fan and get angry and start insulting other people any time anyone suggests any of our other players might be more valuable. Not sure why you decided to take this path after posting here for a long time, but that's what I've seen from you lately. Personally, I think our best assets are roughly tied: Green, Jabari, and Sengun are easily our most valuable trade pieces, and it's not even close. After those guys, Eason and KJ Martin have some value.
With all due respect, that's a really dumb take. I'm just a Rockets fan, I've never been a player first or player only type of fan. Players come and go, the team remains....usually. In fact, I've said all season long that Sengun performed better than anyone else on the roster....but you know how mindless narratives go, especially when it comes to the troglodytes in the GARM
Well, if you don't want people to think you only care about KPJ, maybe you shouldn't start so many arguments that end up with you calling people words synonymous with idiot anytime they criticize him or don't share your view on his value? Just a thought. Anyway, it's fine to have a different take on the trade value of our assets or of Scoot/the #2 pick. It's really a question of marginal value and where our own pick lands. If we're #3, adding Sengun to the deal would be almost a ludicrous overpay. If we're #7, maybe not. I'm sure some fans would rather see Green go than Sengun, too. I don't see that happening based on the various reporting we've heard from Rockets insiders though. The front office seems 100% all-in on Green and more tentative about Alperen, for whatever reason.
It only comes up so often because there are simpletons who try to blame the second best player on the team for other players playing like ass. There's legitimate criticism to be had, but that's typically not what happens, he's just a whipping boy. That's an inherently unfair situation that I'm always going to call out and I don't really care who that upsets. The reason I call those people idiots is because they are actively demonstrating idiocy. It's directly what I'm responding to. Back to the issue at hand, if you want to get someone you think might be a star, you have to give a team a reason to pass that up. There are only 2 players that most people think have that upside, so even if you have #3, the price to move up for one of the only 2 potential stars in the draft is going to be steep. Neither Sengun or Green are star caliber players, but they have enough upside to where you might be able to sell a team on them along with your lower pick. That's the only way you get that deal done IMO. Now sure, if you find a team that has a crazy Sengun or Jalen fan as GM they might give up the #1 pick and their next 8 first round picks for one of those guys....but there's probably not a GM like that.
He's a certified genius. An extremely specific and telling trait of geniuses is spending ample amounts of their valuable time insulting people regularly for years behind a screen on a message board. There have been numerous studies on this actually.
Also saw something else on Reddit that I wanted to repost here because I think it bodes well for Scoot as well as Amen Thompson:
The below isn't directly at you specifically but just adding to the Athletic's conversation: Just like the Rockets, most high lottery teams value BPA over fit. And 'fit' can easily be worked-around (combinations/possibilities), we do this when we look at our own team; but often stops when on motivation of another team. Really bad teams or teams that are stuck tries on luck and fortune as much as anyone. Unless a godfather-like offer; I don't see any teams passing on Henderson. Really any year, most teams don't pass on top any 3, because GM could risk of looking like a fool. The Ainge Fultz/Tatum thing was a rare example. Ainge knew who he wanted. I'm not even that high on Miller or Thompsons, but to get a GM to trade down likely requires some kind of a risky overpay. Empirically speaking, most NBA teams with a top 5 pick, ends up using it themselves. TBH, the only rumbling recently from any time is the Rockets. Stone might be trade down or trade away if we get #4 or lower. And even in your post, you rather trade a Sengun and keep the 1st pick. The same psychology extends to other teams, where they rather cash in on their lottery prize. Fit matters less on bad teams. National media: "Charlotte has LaMelo already, why would they need Henderson" Charolette fans: "a Lamelo and Henderson combo can work. In this league it's ideal to have more than playmaker, Thunder doing it with Giddy and SGA. Plus with Lamelo's health, need a good guard to run the team" Rozier might be gone soon, and though they have lot of guard depth, those other guards can be traded if Henderson is generational. Win-now / fit for the Blazers Media: "Portland has Dame, Simons, and Sharpe, why would they need Henderson" - Blazers org: Henderson can play behind Dame. Henderson can benefit being under Liliard's tutelage. There is a segment of Blazer fans who is OK with moving on from Dame. They see what rest of NBA sees as far as Lilard's ceiling. Acquiring assets like Henderson is their insurance / future. Blazers is 18th in OFF this year, and 28th in DEF (right above us). If our concern is Sengun's defensive ceiling (which itself is a debate), Sengun might not improve their defensive floor. Sengun has value, but most teams won't give up their #2, unless you give a players who themselves was a top 5 pick (fair or not). Sengun might even turn out being better than those top 5 prospects, but by the time most GMs recognize this, those players would have already turned into a Ja, SGA or Sabonis, inw which case If Rockets get the #2 pick, I can imagine a Blazer fan out there conjuring a package of Nurk and pieces for #2 pick. Hey Rocket's is in pivot year, they're buyers on the market and they seem to want a big center in the middle.. we get a vet... etc ....etc
Literal high schooler as the primary ballhandler against grown-ass professional basketball players, while playing through injuries, and he was still an above average scorer. Those numbers are good, my dude.
