1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[SB Nation] How The Rockets Should Solve the Chandler Parsons Conundrum

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by wfeebs, Feb 11, 2014.

Tags:
Page 1 of 6
  1. wfeebs

    wfeebs Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2012
    Messages:
    1,019
    Likes Received:
    90
    This will be an ongoing story for us the next year or so. Tom Ziller is a good writer, I thought this was a pretty good take on it.

    http://www.sbnation.com/2014/2/11/5400700/chandler-parsons-rockets-conundrum-nba-free-agency

    Chandler Parsons is intrinsic to the Houston Rockets' offensive success. Without a player like him, defenses would key in more heavily on James Harden and double-team Dwight Howard more aggressively. Without a player like Parsons, Houston's fast break attack would lose a lot of steam. Without a player like Parsons, the Rockets wouldn't really be able to afford to pay so many other guys so much.

    Parsons is scoring 17 points per game efficiently, shooting 56 percent on two-pointers and almost 40 percent on threes. He's a mediocre rebounder for his position and a straight-up bad rebounder for his height. Defense is notoriously hard to judge, but Parsons doesn't seem particularly adept yet at stopping opponents despite possessing the tools. (The plus-minus numbers back this up, for what it's worth.) Parsons appears to be a great fit in the locker room with Harden and Howard and seems like a favorite coup of GM Daryl Morey.

    The best part: he costs less than a million bucks this season, and he's under contract for $964,000 next year. But there's a catch, and it presents a conundrum that will shape Morey's offseason work to bolster the Rockets.

    That $964,000 due in 2014-15 is a team option. If the Rockets pick up that option, Parsons will become an unrestricted free agent in July, 2015. If the Rockets decline the option, Parsons becomes a free agent in July 2014 -- a restricted free agent. That means that the Rockets will be able to match any offer sheet Parsons signs. Teams don't get that luxury with unrestricted free agents. Based on what other players of Parsons' age and scoring output typically get, Parsons can expect to sign something like a four-year, $36-40 million deal.

    So here's the question Morey has to answer. Does the risk of potentially losing Parsons in 2015 outweigh the benefit of delaying his payday one year?

    Morey actually addressed the issue in a recent talk with season ticket holders, saying that Parsons will make a lot of money. Morey has also recently said that the Rockets' top two players are championship material, but that the team lacks a third banana at that level. But Morey didn't show his hand on whether he's willing to let Parsons walk. Based on the Rockets' current roster, signing Parsons to anything above the mid-level exception would cause Houston to flirt with the luxury tax line in 2014-15. Anything around the $8-10 million he's more likely to make would put the Rockets as currently constructed into the tax. Those concerns go away in 2015-16 as Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik come off the books.

    The issue comes down to from where Parsons' value stems. At $1 million, he's a great value. At $9 million, he's not a value if he's producing like he currently does. If he's not a value at that price, is he replaceable? Few players in their early to mid-20s score as much and as efficiently as Parsons. There aren't a lot of obvious replacement candidates out there; certainly Omri Casspi and Francisco Garcia, who play behind Parsons, can't score quite like him. But if you lower your efficiency requirements to open it up, you'll find that they are a decent number of young forwards who can score at a good rate above league average efficiency. (Free Brandan Wright!)

    Small forward is a strange position because it's so stratified. The two best players in the league are small forwards, but you can find a dozen teams (including a number of playoff squads) with underwhelming starters at the position. Parsons skews toward the better end, but he's nowhere close to the top. And while he's a valuable player for Houston, he's valuable primarily because he is basically free.

    To me, it's an obvious choice: You keep the basically free producer basically free as long as possible. The worst that could happen is that Parsons walks in 2015, when the Rockets expect to have a nice chunk of cap space, be in the upper echelon of the West and expect a solid free agent class. (We're already hearing about teams with 2014 cap space -- like the Lakers -- attempting to defer it to 2015.) Plus, if the Rockets avoid the risk by declining the player option this summer, there's no guarantee other teams will act sanely. What if a club makes Parsons some ridiculous offer, like $48 million over four years? If the Rockets don't match, they will have given up a basically free year of Parsons for nothing. That's a worse result than losing him in 2015.

    If the decision bugs Parsons or his agent Dan Fegan, then Parsons can have an epic 2014-15 and walk out to $40 million plus from someone else in 2015. The Rockets will likely be able to survive the loss.

    In the meantime, keeping Parsons cheap in 2014-15 allows Morey to potentially add a piece (depending on what he wants to or can do with Asik and Lin) in his quest to get Howard, Harden and Kevin McHale a championship. Paying Parsons earlier to remove the risk of losing him doesn't help get the Rockets any further in 2014-15. Houston needs to swing for the fences early and often, and playing risk management with Parsons' contract isn't worth it.
     
    #1 wfeebs, Feb 11, 2014
  2. GanjaRocket

    GanjaRocket Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2012
    Messages:
    3,557
    Likes Received:
    106
    Parsons brings intangible elements that we'd miss even if we got a replacement that is capable of 15, 5, 5 a night
     
    #2 GanjaRocket, Feb 11, 2014
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    37,973
    Likes Received:
    15,447
    Subjectively, I feel this article is selling Parsons short. He's a better all-around player than he's getting credit for.
     
    #3 durvasa, Feb 11, 2014
  4. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos Houston only fan
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2009
    Messages:
    28,636
    Likes Received:
    12,571
    exactly my thoughts.
     
    #4 LosPollosHermanos, Feb 11, 2014
  5. sammy

    sammy Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2002
    Messages:
    18,949
    Likes Received:
    3,528
    The only way we should let Parsons hit the market this summer is if we win a title. Until then, we cannot risk not being able to land Kevin Love, etc :cool:
     
    #5 sammy, Feb 11, 2014
  6. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    46,812
    Likes Received:
    18,519
    Resigning Parsons for less than $10 mil a year would be a steal. I expect 4 years $50 mil.
     
    #6 REEKO_HTOWN, Feb 11, 2014
  7. SunsRocketsfan

    SunsRocketsfan Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2002
    Messages:
    6,232
    Likes Received:
    451
    Asik and Parsons should exchange contracts...
     
    #7 SunsRocketsfan, Feb 11, 2014
  8. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2002
    Messages:
    56,811
    Likes Received:
    39,118
    Odd to read this after hearing T-Puppies color man and former Rocket Jim Petersen describe Chandler as "one of my favorite players in the league" and adding numerous other compliments during our last game. If Parsons is only a bit better than average, Petersen (who knows basketball) sure has been fooled.
     
    #8 Deckard, Feb 11, 2014
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    54,127
    Likes Received:
    112,643
    Parsons is being sold short.
     
    #9 Nook, Feb 11, 2014
  10. arjun

    arjun Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2006
    Messages:
    4,214
    Likes Received:
    280
    Agreed with the poster above, the goal should be to get Parsons for under $10M. Sorry to say this, but him not making the All Star Team and USA Basketball...was maybe a good thing for the Rockets -- have more grounds to drive down his value a tad bit
     
    #10 arjun, Feb 11, 2014
  11. Raven

    Raven Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Messages:
    14,984
    Likes Received:
    1,024
    Good point.
     
    #11 Raven, Feb 11, 2014
  12. rocketblood713

    rocketblood713 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2011
    Messages:
    3,428
    Likes Received:
    57
    He staying ..
     
    #12 rocketblood713, Feb 11, 2014
  13. ctry2582

    ctry2582 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2003
    Messages:
    1,227
    Likes Received:
    27
    Whether Parsons is being sold short or not, Ziller has it right. Pick up the team option and see what happens in 2015. As opposed to letting him be a RFA and then having to decide what to do if a team goes nuts.
     
    #13 ctry2582, Feb 11, 2014
  14. AvgJoe

    AvgJoe Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    3,637
    Likes Received:
    392
    Parsons isn't worth more than $10 mil/year imo. His D and rebound deficiency limits his value. I think he's worth $10 mil on Rockets team, most other teams at that cost for him will be overpaying to what he will contribute. I would be happy we resign him for $9mil/year
     
    #14 AvgJoe, Feb 11, 2014
  15. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2009
    Messages:
    33,358
    Likes Received:
    19,204
    I am worried Parsons may take it personal if the Rockets don't pay him this summer. He's given them basically free production for the last 3 years. I know it's the nature of the business but imagine if you were only being paid 20k a year at your job when you know you deserve to be paid 10x more or 200k a year. I'd be resentful towards my boss for not rewarding me and making me wait.

    Chandler has a potential career-ending injury to worry about too, anything can happen between now and 2015. Chandler has been keeping quiet because he's a pro but you know he and his agent have had a lot of discussions about his impending payday.
     
    #15 TheRealist137, Feb 11, 2014
  16. Bigsupervise

    Bigsupervise Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2013
    Messages:
    218
    Likes Received:
    13
    You were impressed by K Love last night? He can shoot but man is he slow and poor on defense. Give me Tjones all day. Rockets will try to free up Asik's contract money to sign Parsons. I think the Rockets can re sign Lin for his similiar rate of 7-$8 mil. Unlike most I think the Rockets will go far this year in the playoffs and challenge for a title next yr...so there wont be the motivation to blow it up for some dream NBA 2k team. Stay young and deep and compete with Indy/OKC/LAC for the next 5 yrs
     
    #16 Bigsupervise, Feb 11, 2014
  17. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2005
    Messages:
    27,977
    Likes Received:
    23,169
    If he's 4 years, $36 million then I'd take that every day of the week.

    At 4 years, $48 million... not so sure.

    But I wouldn't be too opposed to letting the contract play out and possibly have him walk at the end of it.
     
    #17 Haymitch, Feb 11, 2014
  18. bongman

    bongman Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2002
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    1,411
    My opinion, take the player option. The 2015 free agency has tons of big names.

    Lebron, Carmelo, Deng, Hayward, Gay, Marion, Pierce, Kirilenko, Granger, Ariza, Aminu, Butler, Beasly, Battier, Marv Williams, CJ Miles, Miller, etc.

    Having a number of decent available power forwards gives Morey a huge negotiating advantage. In addition, if all those players have been signed by teams and consider that there are other positions that might have signed too, this will only mean that teams might not have enough cap space to offer CP a lot of money.
     
    #18 bongman, Feb 11, 2014
  19. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    46,812
    Likes Received:
    18,519
    Problem with this theory is Parsons CHOSE this type of contract to get more guaranteed money. He could have signed a deal similar to most of our second rounders and he'd be a restricted free agent this summer but he wanted a guaranteed extra year. Morey took a chance on him and it paid off but what if it didn't?

    Parsons shouldn't have any beef at all especially the way the orginazation showcases him and markets him. He's a franchise face with H&H and it's gotten him deals outside of basketball.
     
    #19 REEKO_HTOWN, Feb 11, 2014
  20. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 1999
    Messages:
    124,044
    Likes Received:
    32,951
    That article is wrong on so many levels - no Parsons = no win.

    He is crucial to the Rockets success, on both ends, his rebounding is fine, but he leaks out for fastbreaks because that is the role he is tasked with doing leaving the rebounding for Howard and Jones.

    IMHO, if the Rockets even flirt with letting him become an unrestricted free agent, they would be making a massive mistake, let him be restricted - which has been Morey's MO to date, Lowry & Landry etc, and let teams know you will match whatever is offered to drive his price down a bit and sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal.

    Guys who shoot 50% FG and 40% 3pt and are 6'9 are NOT common at all.

    DD
     
    #20 DaDakota, Feb 11, 2014
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)
Page 1 of 6

Share This Page

Toggle Width
Style
ClutchFans Original

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Rockets Content

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now