Saudi Arabia Will Protect Sunnis if the U.S. Leaves

I have no doubt that many of those that once favored invasion by the U.S. to topple Sadam now aren't in favor of it. That is why the two questions have different numbers of people in the polls. There were far more people in favor of invasion by the U.S. at the time than there are now. The poll I posted agrees with this. But it also shows that it wasn't a majority of Sh'ites.

 

It was in regard to your response to Deckard regarding Iraq being educated and secular prior to the invasion. While Iraq compared to most Arab states was that was no guarentee that things would turn out badly. As noted Yugoslavia was very progressive but still devolved in ethnic hatred when the strong man was removed. The same should've been considered with Iraq which also had simmering group tensions.

 

Which still doesn't deal with my objection to the poll now about attitudes then. The number discrepancy is easily explained by the fact that Shiites are much less likely to reveal now that they supported it then for multiple reasons. The Shiite leadership was courting the administration pre-intervention, which denies your long held assertion they didn't ask for help. Other Shiites supported the intervention. There were multiple coup attempts which denies your long held assertion that there was no internal push to remove Saddam. When you look at the complete picture your assertions just don't stand up. Further, the leap that is being made (they'd rather not have had athe intervention) from your assertion is not addressed by polls but Ghosh addresses specifically - people are happy Saddam is gone. That doesn't mean there aren't problems, or they are as secure - but the majority wouldn't favor a return to Iraq circa 2002.

Not sure what you mean - strong man removed, Tito was dead for ten years before the breakup and conflict started. I wasn't proposing that the professionalism of the Iraqis would stop conflict (that would be silly since there is conflict now), but rather refuting Deckard's assertion that they'd all left the country.

 

Hayes…

The real question is did the U.S have the right to bring change and shape the future for the Iraqi people?

Was there a possibility that change in Iraq may have occurred in a RELATIVELY peaceful manner over time? And if so doesn't it put some responsibility of Iraq's chaos(deaths) on to U.S shoulders? Was the price up to the U.S to decide?

Who has the right to choose the future and lives of others? For me it’s nobody other than those whose lives are at stake…It was an in house problem, and it should have been solved in house.

 

There were repeated uprisings and coup attempts so not sure what makes you think this could be solved in house. Kurds and Shiites, two of the three main groups and the majority of the populace wanted Saddam out.

 

you are still not answering the question....

 

Well, you actually asked five questions. My response answers the crux of your questions.

 

(in response to Sishir)

More Iraqi Refugees Escape to Syria

By SALAH NASRAWI
The Associated Press
Wednesday, November 29, 2006; 12:54 PM

DAMASCUS, Syria -- The Syrian capital is bustling with Iraqi refugees who fled the increasingly brutal violence in their homeland, and thousands more are arriving every day.

A group of Iraqis gathered around a table in a Damascus coffee shop one evening this week, and one told a bitter joke about their country's plight _ and their own.

What will President Bush ask of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki at their summit in Jordan? "A timetable for Iraqis to withdraw from Iraq," the joke-teller said, drawing loud laughter.

Well over a million Iraqis have left their homeland since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, and the rate is speeding up. The United Nations estimated in early November that 100,000 Iraqis flee the country every month.

After Jordan made entry more difficult this year, Syria became the top destination for Iraqis, with some 2,000 entering daily, according to the U.N. count. Syrian officials estimate some 700,000 Iraqis have arrived since 2003, far more than in any other country in the region.

In Damascus, many Iraqis live a precarious existence, often without steady incomes. Many say they left Iraq after being threatened with abduction by criminal gangs or sectarian militias.

"We are living like homeless people. How long can we survive after we spent all the money we had?" asked Lutfi Kairallah, a civil engineer who was among the men in the coffee shop. He said he left Iraq with his family after a militia ordered him to go or be killed.

Raad Hamadan, a businessman at the coffee shop, was abducted by a gang and freed after his family paid a $50,000 ransom. He and his family then fled Iraq.

"Nothing, and no one can end our nightmare. Only God can. Not Bush, not al-Maliki, not any one of those Arab rulers," he said.

Another refugee, Walid al-Khayat, said his bus was stopped en route to the Syrian border by Sunni insurgents who robbed him and other passengers. "A million thanks to God, they didn't kill me," he said. "But they machine-gunned the passenger next to me just because his name was Abdel Hassan" _ a Shiite name.

In Syria, Iraqis can receive free health care and schooling. Still, many Iraqis complain they feel unwelcome. For example, landlords increase rent regularly and threaten to evict those who cannot pay.

Wealthy Iraqis can open businesses, helping to boost Syria's economy. But Iraqi professionals such as doctors, lawyers and teachers are not allowed to work.

"We can't make any plans for ourselves and our children because tomorrow is just a mystery for us," said Noor Ziyad, a former teacher in Baghdad.

Syria does not require entry visas from Arabs, but those who wish to stay longer than six months must leave the country and return. Since other countries impose strict visa regulations on Iraqis, the refugees either have to stay illegally in Syria, facing huge penalties, or risk their lives by going back to Iraq.

New York-based Human Rights Watch said this month that Jordan _ where some 500,000 Iraqis have fled _ has tightened its rules, refusing to renew visas and turning Iraqis away at the border. Heavy fines are imposed on those caught staying longer than allowed by their visas, and those who cannot pay are sometimes forced to return to Iraq, the report said.

In early November, the U.N. said 1.8 million Iraqis were living in other Arab countries. The figure included those living outside Iraq before the 2003 invasion and did not say how many had fled since then.

The office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees in Syria said it has noticed a significant increase in the number of Iraqis fleeing to Syria and Egypt, another major destination.

"It is a huge crisis of displacement," said Laurens Jolles of the UNHCR office in Damascus. "It is unimaginable situation that we are trying to deal with."


Hayes, who do you think have the resources to flee Iraq? It is the middle class, such as it was, the educated, the businessmen and their families, the professionals. In short, those who make a modern country run. They are fleeing Iraq as fast as they can, if they can. They are being murdered and intimidated in Iraq if they stay, but more and more are simply leaving.



D&D. Walk, Don't Run.

 

You don't have to be a professional to take a bus ride out of Iraq.

These two quotes seem to contradict each other.

Here's a quote with the four million number I used earlier:

Around 250,000 Iraqis live in Britain - one of the biggest expatriate communities - with up to four million spread elsewhere around the world...

The British vote is expected to follow patterns in Iraq, where the Shia Muslims, who comprise 60 per cent of the population, are expected to dominate. Most expatriate Iraqis are Shia or from the Kurdish minority. Both groups suffered disproportionately under Saddam Hussein, who favoured Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1379791,00.html

 

Not really. 1.8 million, at least, live outside Iraq. "Well over a million have left" since the invasion and occupation. Did you actually read the aticle, Hayes? Basically, everyone interviewed fit my description of the people fleeing Iraq. Of course many are what you might term "ordinary people." The fact remains that a very large number are professionals, businessmen and their families, and the educated. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out, Hayes, but parse away.



D&D. Parse your Dog. It's Good, Fur Sure.

 

No, it says 1.8 million live in other Arab countries. Not 'outside Iraq' as that number is much higher.

Er, yes Deckard. I'm beginning to wonder if you did? The article claims the UN says 100,000 are leaving a month since the intervention, then it says the UN does not say how many have left since the intervention. Seems like there is tension there, no? OTOH the vast majority of the four million Iraqi expatriates are from those groups persecuted by Saddam during his reign.

Deckard, one 'businessman' and one 'civil engineer' doesn't consistute 'everyone.' One had an unnamed occupation and one was a teacher. That's two out of a total sample size of four.

 

AS EVIL AS SADDAM WAS, IRAQI'S WERE BETTER OFF UNDER HIM. you cant bestow the liberty of democracy to a country that has never even come close to tasting it.

 

The coup attempts are different than mass popular uprising. I guess you can say the Shiites were courting intervention via military support prior to intervention if you want to go back to the First Gulf War. I haven't seen anything other request for an invasion by the U.S. from Shiite groups internally. The Shiites that requested it, were all exhiles, who stood to profit personally from the invasion.

I also think it is possible that people are happy that Saddam is gone, but not happy there was an invasion. An heir to a fortune can be happy they are rich, but not happy their parents had to die for that to be.

My assertions aren't that people were content with Saddam, and were hoping against any change. My assertions are that there weren't any mass appeals and hopes for a U.S. invasion of Iraq at the time of the invasion.

 

Ya think? It might not have been too smart to take out a flyer when you were in Iraq while Saddam was in control saying 'please come remove Saddam.' Couldn't that be the reason you don't see a lot of anti-Saddam press from INSIDE Iraq when Saddam was still in power? First you claimed no Shiites supported it, now you're saying those that did stood to profit from it. Yes, Shiites stood to gain with Saddam removed, that's kind of the point.

 

since the removal of saddam, how many of those 4 million iraqis has gone back home to iraq?

 

Maybe someone else can answer this one. There was a large initial spike from what I can tell but that has slowed dramatically with the poor security situation.

 

I didn't say no shiites supported it. I said that there wasn't a majority that did.

I say that the ones that petitioned our govt. for intervention were people like Chalabi, who were exhiles, and stood to gain personally (not in the sense of freedom gained or liberty).

 

Sigh. FB, you've been making the same argument for a couple of years, and you never said it 'wasn't a majority.' Regardless, the leadership of the Shiites was on board which disproves your assertion that they weren't.

Doesn't an exile also stand to gain in the sense of freedom and liberty? The voice of the Shiites pre-intervention was primarily those out of the country for obvious reasons; calling for help internally brought swift retribution from Saddam (as shown by the string of Shiite leaders murdered in the late 90s when they disagreed with Saddam). You are moving the burden each time you have to take a step back.