First off, the GOP judge issue is not one that is going away. If you've watched them, over the last two election cycles, most of them have been running unopposed. Democratic judges have largely bowed out of those races because they have simply been unable to crack them since the late 80's when Hotze and his crew started getting actively involved in judicial races. No one in Harris County politics sees that changing anytime soon. As for White, I don't think this is a dress rehersal. I know several people who know him and he has said that he has very few aspirations to run for statewide office, the only real office worth running for if you lose out in a mayor's race. No one goes back to city council or something like that. Bell went on to win a seat in the house in DC so, for him, running for mayor really was a big stepping stone. But, he's also very young. Grenias disappeared and got out of politics altogether. White is dead serious about this race or he wouldn't have hired a fairly conservative republican to run his campaign. He knows he has to draw from that moderate GOP base to win and Sanchez knows (as does pretty much every other candidate) that White will slaughter anyone he faces in a runoff assuming he can get there.
Yep, I agree with that too, Jeff. And it's a fun race to watch with the relatively complex math. What's funny to me is that White probably didn't have much chance at all (according to the logic of your above post) until Berry got in. (Officially White got in after Berry, but everyone knew White, Turner and Sanchez were running before anyone knew about Berry.) Berry's giving White his best shot by drawing off of Sanchez. The ironic thing, of course, is that Berry's both a better candidate AND more electable than Sanchez. In a Sanchez-White race, White gets plenty of moderate white votes along with the entire black vote and a chunk of Latinos as well (this isn't an electoral election - winning Latino districts doesn't mean winning the whole Latino vote). White's more appealing and a better candidate to virtually every class of voter than Brown was. The exception's blacks, which White gets anyway against anyone but Turner. All that points to a weaker showing for Sanchez vs. White than vs. Brown. If the GOP was smart they'd get Sanchez out of the race and turn it into a three way between White, Berry and Turner. That would almost definitely net a Turner-Berry runoff, which is the best shot at a Republican mayor. Berry even has a little bit of black support from that tricky deal he did with the A/C window units to poor black churches (and the alleged promise he wouldn't run against Turner), which is how he got to Council in the first place.
Bill White's best friend in Houston is a very close friend of mine and I can tell you unequivocably that he is not interested in higher office. Or lower office. He wants to be mayor. Regardless of Sanchez's current (slim) lead, White's the man to beat.
So are you saying that the hispanic voters were uneducated with respect to the candidates? That's incredibly insulting. I'm sure they can think for themselves. Orlando doesn't hide his cuban heritage.
if he wins, it's not a dress rehearsal. if he loses, which seems likely, it's a dress rehearsal. if he doesn't want to get outside the area, there are other offices here at both the county and city level, and he can make a run at those. I'm saying you don't build an organization just to make one run, at least not usually, because you have to have contributors, and contributors want commitments. One is usually that the candidate will run again if they lose, if not for the same office, for a different one. I agree that the GOP judges won't quickly go away, mainly because so many voters vote straight Republican and sweep them in, and GOP voters vote in greater percentages than their Democratic counterparts. But I expect a turn in that by 2006. Will there ever be a majority dems again? probably not for a long time.
Actually, it isn't really just about his being Cuban. It's about his being conservative. And to answer your question, YES, they are uneducated. The truth is that the majority of voters in every election ARE uneducated. There have been numerous studies done around the country that have found most voters base their decisions on candidates on perceptions of them from advertisements and/or the media or on party affiliation. One study I read found that a significant percentage actually base their decisions on ads run by the opposition. Voter education in this country is really pretty awful across the board. I mean, how many people here actually read the websites, campaign information, League of Women Voters guides, news stories, etc before making a decision??? Being informed takes work and most people don't have the time or the interest to do that work.
Re: Houston Latinos. Everything Jeff said plus the fact that they wanted a Latino mayor. And many of them didn't know he was Cuban. There will be far more (and more vocal) opposition from within the community this time around. Fan, Regardless of conventional wisdom, believe me when I tell you White is not running for another office if he loses and he has certainly not made a commitment to anyone to do so. He might run for mayor again, but that would be the extent of it. He's not being groomed to be a candidate in general. He's being supported because his supporters want him to be mayor. The folks supporting White don't see him as a longshot at all. They think he'll win. If he makes the runoff, he will. Also, most of the business community and the downtown power brokers (as well as Lanier) are supporting him and expect him to win. The only real longshot in this race is Berry. Ironically, if Sanchez dropped out for any reason he'd probably become the frontrunner. That's how weird this election is. On judges, I think Jeff's right. That trend's here to stay for a while. Don't get caught with a pot seed or anything. You'll probably do the max. p.s. Against White, Sanchez will get less Republican votes than he did last time. Against anyone, he will get less Latino votes than he did last time. And he'll be lucky to steal a single non-Latino Dem vote. Bank it. He'll never beat White and he'll have a hell of a time beating Turner. Republicans would be far better off with Berry.
Sad but true. Yet somehow, it seems to work out. Even your synopsis focused on the zingers and debate style rather than experience, competence and ideas of the candidates. Voters focus on the same things.
I hope White wins, but the negative advertising hasn't really started. I hear a few radio ads, but that's it. Bill White is a Bill Clinton tax and spend liberal. is their message, and they will hit strong on TV. that will hurt White once the heavy negative starts.
You're right, Friendly. I heard that add on 610 and it cracked me up. I guess that's the only thing they could say against him -- that he's a Democrat. Could have said the same thing about our last three mayors.
BJ, I hope you and Jeff are dead on. I hope Bill wins. But I know how vile the forces of evil are in this city - they are the same guys who killed the first arena vote - Watson, Polland, and all those rat f***s. There is a rightwing element in this city that always brings out the heavy negative. They went after Whitmire, and Hofeinz, and Turner, and they will go after anyone not of their liking. White has split some of the wheels, like Lanier, and that gives him a shot. The attack is in full swing on 950 AM. Those guys have all Nazi radio 24/7 now. The afternoon guy is a failed cruise comic. They are already on White's case over the Democrat/Slick Willie angle.
The irony, of course, is that Houston is a moderate to moderately liberal CITY. It's the county that is conservative and the Harris County GOP is dominated by the far right element of the party. White will no doubt be hurt by the ties to Clinton, but it is important to remember that most of the people who wouldn't vote for any democrat reside in the county, not in the city. I don't think White is a longshot. Berry fills that role. But, White will definitely need to be creative if he wants to make the runoff.
I'm saying IF latino voters HAD known Sanchez was Cuban, he would not have won a single precinct so obviously I'm saying that the majority of latinos weren't educated on who this particular candidate really was and bought this dumb image he tried to portray. Unfortunately this is what Republicans are left with in order to get minority votes, hide your Cuban candidate in the closet while you fund the hell out of him and give the appearance that he shares the views of the minority community he allegedly comes from. Cubans share very different views politically than other latinos but you know that and this is just another dumbass attempt by you to engage in baiting. Nice work buddy.
Great thread, guys, especially for those like me who need more education on the mayoral race and city issues.
So I guess my chances would be better if my name were Sanchez. I was at the debate, and Jeff's synopsis was great (and very accurate). Turner and Berry definately seem more comfy than the other two in the spotlight. I was very shocked when Sanchez gave Turner a shot to glorify what he has done for the men & women in blue. I'm thinking....why ask the man a question when the answer is gonna make him look better?
Sanchez is awful in these types of situations. It is one of his weaknesses. Even so, other than Berry's shot at Sanchez, every question asked by one of the other candidates was a HUGE softball. But, it's early. They won't be throwing softballs in October.
