http://news.mysanantonio.com/story.cfm?xla=saen&xlb=1010&xlc=846845 Buck Harvey: Yao a success? A billion reasons San Antonio Express-News Web Posted : 10/24/2002 12:00 AM There's a line in there somewhere about Confucius and the first step of a long journey. There's a line, too, from one of the Spurs. Shaq-y Chan? But the biggest line will come later, if Yao Ming takes something from his first NBA moment, then later proves he can impact the league. This line will form next to a cash register, from a massive market thus far untapped by modern sports. Get ready for the biggest selling jersey in the world. No. 11 of the Houston Rockets. It won't be just because the biggest-breathing human wears No. 11. Yao Ming is tall, all right, but there have been other seven-and-a-half-footers who could shoot jumpers. This one is not as spindly as Manute Bol, nor as awkward as Shawn Bradley. But this one is still hard to define. Sports Illustrated tried, putting Yao on the cover this week as "The Next Big Thing." Inside, the magazine already ranks Yao as the seventh-best NBA center, one slot ahead of David Robinson. Such ratings don't mean much, and another this week by USA Today proves that. The newspaper ranked all players by position using a statistical formula, and Robinson was somehow first among centers. Ahead of Shaq-y O'Neal. But going by Wednesday, putting Yao ahead of Robinson right now makes about as much sense. Yao looked like a man literally learning the rules. A lane violation here, a wild pass there. Robinson, as long as his back doesn't leave him stiff, could foul out a Yao in a half. Robinson also didn't begin his career with six-point, four-rebound nights. Robinson averaged more than 24 points a game as a rookie, and opponents could see it already in his preseason. Robinson was going to be a star. But Yao has excuses, and Manu Ginobili talked about them afterward. Ginobili has also come to the NBA from another country, yet with none of the same issues. Ginobili listed them. Language, culture, style of basketball, even jet lag. The hardest part for Ginobili? "My ankle," he said. To judge Yao, then, requires more than 13 minutes in his first game. He could be a rotation player and he could be a franchise player. "There's a large margin," Ginobili said. P.J. Carlesimo, the Spurs assistant, votes for top tier. Carlesimo conducted the pre-draft workout, and he liked Yao's skills and his obvious size. But Carlesimo also liked his personality. To Carlesimo, Yao was clever. He knew what the scouts wanted to see. "I'll be surprised if he isn't an impact player," Carlesimo said. But there's another factor, and it was clear Wednesday. Unless Rudy Tomjanovich can coax Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley into occasionally passing, Yao will be nothing but a role player. Today, the Rockets are happy. The franchise would have finished last in attendance last season if the Hornets hadn't fudged their numbers to make sure they could move to New Orleans. The Rockets needed something to sell, and here they are, three years straight out of the playoffs, on the cover of Sports Illustrated. But it's the global draw that could amaze. If Yao learns and toughens, his No. 11 won't have to hang from the rafters to be a success. China has 1.3 billion people, or a billion more than live in the United States, and Yao is the conduit who can bring them to sports. Today, the Rockets are happy. The franchise would have finished last in attendance last season if the Hornets hadn't fudged their numbers to make sure they could move to New Orleans. The Rockets needed something to sell, and here they are, three years straight out of the playoffs, on the cover of Sports Illustrated. But it's the global draw that could amaze. If Yao learns and toughens, his No. 11 won't have to hang from the rafters to be a success. China has 1.3 billion people, or a billion more than live in the United States, and Yao is the conduit who can bring them to sports. Among the few comparable sports celebrities in China are two soccer players who play in the English Premier League. When their teams met, the television audience was estimated at 700 million. So imagine if Yao is in an All-Star game or in the playoffs. "We have all known about Yao since he was 17 and have watched him develop," the director of a China-America business institute told the Houston Chronicle recently. "We have waited for this day to come. All of China will follow every game, every step." The first one came Wednesday, potentially leading to new lines. bharvey@express-news.net 10/24/2002
