To clarify - what I was saying is that if you believe he's a 0.280/0.800ish hitter, that's what you should expect him to perform at going forward. Stats/history don't bear out the idea that a player would underperform for a period after overperforming to get back to that average as a whole. That might very well happen, of course, because he could hit a slump just as he's hit a hot streak, but it's no more or less likely than him performing at 0.280/0.800 or hitting another hot streak. The idea is that if you believe him to fundamentally be a 0.280/0.800 hitter, then you should expect him his end of season 2009 statistics to be better than that because he overperformed for 2 months. An example of this is Berkman 2007: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players...1GgogM3u_Vi3clu8OFCLcF?year=2007&type=Batting He had a horrible April and May (0.740 OPS). He's normally a 0.950ish OPS hitter - he didn't have a hot streak to balance out the slow start to get his season to 0.950, but he performed around that 0.950 OPS the rest of the way. The end result is that his full season stats were below average - but that's a perfect example of regressing to the mean. If the season was 12 months or 20 months, he'd keep getting closer and closer to a 0.950 OPS for the season. Not sure if that makes any sense at all.
Daryl Jones -- one of the top prospects in the Cardinals organization -- local product out of Spring High School -- 5-tool outfielder -- that's who we've got to get for Miguel Tejada . . .
So rather than regressing to his mean, it's entirely possible that Miggy will *slump* to his mean or even *limp* to his mean.
If you are a good enough hitter, you can swing at all kinds of crap out of the strike zone and still have a high average. Being a gifted hitter doesn't equal having plate dicipline. A starting point would be BB/K.
I'm all in for the trade.. Give us a young good player and new baseball cleats for the whole team and you have yourself a deal.. Get something for Tejada while we still have a chance..
He doesn't have good plate discipline. Doesn't mean he isn't playing well, or isn't/hasn't been a good hitter. It's just one aspect of the game. Just like a .350 hitter (280ish career hitter) can also not have power, a .350 hitter can also have bad "plate discipline". It's not defined by BA.
It's worth noting for Tejada, though, that he only has 15Ks for the season - he's on pace for maybe 50-60K's, which is absurdly good for someone with only 6 walks all year. So while his K/BB ratio is not good at all, he's swinging away at stuff but rarely ever striking out and getting hits out of a lot of it. That might be a sign of pretty good discipline.
Some guys are just disciplined in another style of hitting. It is away from what all the "experts" say what will make you successful.
The better trade rumor would be Berkman to the Red Sox. Let's float that one around a while. Berkman's their kind of player and they're loaded with prospects. As long as Ortiz keeps struggling or even maybe gets hurt for a long period of time, they're going to want another big bat.
I don't know that the Red Sox are going to clean out the farm system for a 34 year old 1B that is presently hitting .240.
