That and he's the poster child of the DLC, aka he's a corporate ho. He's a bland vanilla red-state Dem who lacks progressive credentials and voted for an illegal war. Pass!!
I don't particularly dislike him as a senator or governor. I just don't think, of all the options discussed, he brings anything to the table. There's just no point to picking him in opinion. Besides which, it would be a lot of hype and anticipation for a "blah" candidate. Though that might be a reason to wait until Saturday to announce it, when no one's really paying attention.
Chuck Todd had an interesting point on Verdict tonight. He said if you look at the body language of the three candidates they have under surveillance (Bayh, Biden and Kaine), Biden looks like a guy who's getting ready to be away from home for 60 days. He went to the bank, went to the dentist, spent time with family. Todd said Bayh and Kaine do not look like they're preparing to be gone for 60 days. Then again, he also said that he didn't think the pick had been notified and he didn't think they would even get the call until right before the text message goes out. He mentioned that nearly every time a VP selection leaks, the leak comes from the person who received the call. And he said the Obama people are obsessed with making the text thing work. I think it's Biden.
Aside from Barack, his wife and a few confidantes, nobody knows. Which is why he needs to announce it before he loses any more momentum.
Word is the Obama campaign might delay the announcement further so they can capitalize on this McCain housing thing longer. They don't want the veep announcement to overshadow what they think is a politically devestating attack.
Another good analysis from 538: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/one-veep-clue-worth-worrying-about.html The One Tea Leaf Worth Reading I wouldn't pay all that much attention to hints that people like Mark Halperin or Howard Fineman are dropping about the VP selection process. Why not? Their sources are too good -- meaning too close to the process. There are differences between information brokers, which is what someone like Mark Halperin is, and information seekers, which is more like what someone like Marc Ambinder is. In a process as tightly-controlled as the Obama VP rollout, the brokers might have more information than the seekers -- but all of the information they'll have will be things that the Obama campaign wants them to know. The seekers are more likely to learn something that they aren't supposed to know. With that out of the way, there is exactly one clue that I consider to be worth worrying about, and that is the timing of the announcement. It is now Friday morning at 1:12 AM Central Time. The Democratic convention kicks off in about 75 hours. The identity of the VP is not known. You can send up trial balloons, send out false information, bluff and posture and play-act as much as you like ... but you can't get that time back. There is very little time left to roll-out and brand the candidate. As Stu Rothenberg notes, it is actually the norm rather than the exception to have the VP named relatively close to the convention. Still, there is cutting it close, and then there is leaving yourself no time at all. Geraldine Ferraro and Al Gore were named 4 days before the opening gavel at the convention, Lloyd Bentsen 6 days, Joe Lieberman 8 days, and John Edwards 20 days ... so this pick will set the modern record for the Democrats, although the Republicans have sometimes waited even longer. And this year, the circumstances are especially poor for a late roll-out. The pre-convention coverage will have to compete with the Closing Ceremonies. The convention coverage will have to compete with The Clinton Show. There isn't really a post-convention period, since the Republicans will hold their convention the week after. If you leave yourself with a candidate who hasn't been adequately branded, you give yourself two problems. One, the Obama-Who? Effect, i.e. underscoring the fact that Obama is inexperienced and unknown. And two, the fact that the candidate won't have the stature to draw large crowds on the campaign trail, or to maximize their exposure as a potential surrogate for you. All of this points strongly to the known knowns: Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton. In the polling that Rasmussen conducted last month, these were the percentage of likely voters who knew enough about the respective candidates to have formed an opinion about them: Clinton 98% Biden 69% Bayh 51% Kaine 40% Sebelius 39% For comparison, here are some of the Republicans: Romney 89% Huckabee 85% Lieberman 85% Crist 53% Jindal 43% Pawlenty 42% Palin 30% Google Trends reveals similar numbers: Clinton and Biden are well ahead of the other candidates: ...and since Clinton was apparently fairly lukewarm in her support of Obama on the campaign trail in Florida today, that would tend to point toward Biden ... then again, it's not even clear that the candidates have been informed of their status yet. BONUS: How the media will react to different choices: Biden: Back-slapping approval. Media seems eager to play up Biden's Scranton roots, etc., rather than his long tenure in Washington. This is a nontrivial element in his favor. Clinton: Shock and awe. Mostly awe. Some people who felt used in the whole Biden/Bayh/Kaine wild goose chase might be a little b****y. Buzz might last straight through the Republican convention. Bayh: Disappointed. Choice will be seen as safe, unadaptive. The whole late roll-out and text message process might be portrayed as a gimmick. Low expectations for his speech, which might actually be his best chance to turn things around. Kaine: "Obama going with his gut/heart/etc." Obvious questions about experience, whether Kaine is too eager to please. Media may not know he's a strong speaker, which could give him a chance to impress. Sebelius: Bemused, wait-and-see. Hardest to predict, highest degree of difficulty. A lot of attention will be paid to her speech, the baton-pass from the Clintons at the convention. I think the last part is important - by hyping this so much, you have to deliver. Producing an Evan Byah is going to be very "blah".
I don't think Edwards will be the pick, but I do think being mentioned as much as he has means he could have a good shot at getting the Dem nod for Senate of Governor.
Final prediction. I think it is going to be Kaine. If it were up to me I'd go with Reed, Sebelius or Richardson in that order, but my gut says it will be Kaine.
Final prediction: Biden. Choices I'd be excited by: Gore, Sebelius, Schweitzer, Webb, Warner, Clark, Clinton (come on, it would be exciting). And Biden. Choices I'd be fine with but non-plussed: Reed, Richardson, Dodd, C. Edwards. Choices I'd be disappointed by: Bayh, Nunn, Daschle (he should be Chief of Staff), Gephardt, Kaine.
That's funny you say that about Clinton. I never thought I'd say I would be excited about her, but Major and I were chatting today and I told him I'd be very excited about it. It ain't happening though. My guess is Biden.
Sebelius, Kaine and Reed (not to mention Rendell and C. Kennedy) all scheduled for Sunday shows. And none of them has the full show to themselves. That would seem to indicate they're all out of the running. Of course, any of them could cancel. But it doesn't make a lot of sense to announce their appearances on the shows and then cancel them hours later.
I'm starting to think he might not even announce today. It's 3:00 eastern. Could he be waiting until right before the appearance? I was chill til about an hour ago. Now I'm getting kind of antsy.
I thought I had read it would be Friday evening, so I was assuming 5 or 6 ish. I think there would be too much risk waiting until tomorrow -- by doing that, obviously the VP himself and his traveling staff would have to know, and they'd have to go to Springfield, and there would just be far too many people in the loop for news not to break before the text message.
^That makes sense. What I don't get is why they don't announce it NOW and soak up the news cycle. But I guess they might want to milk McNopoly-gate a little more first.
I still think the point is still to enlist more volunteers. I haven't signed up, but chump that I am, I literally get closer to signing up by the hour... or I can feel that pull, since I've been wanting to sign up anyway...
