Given that we haven't heard anything today, assuming it's not the Virginia guys (Warner, Webb, Kaine), I doubt we hear anything before Thursday night or Friday. Obama's in Virginia today and tomorrow, and it would be weird to announce a non-VA VP while campaigning in Virginia.
Well, damn. Hope this is wrong. http://www.nashvillepost.com/news/2008/8/20/obama_team_to_hold_major_event_saturday_in_bayhs_indiana
Bleh - it would fit a few things we've learned the last few days: 1. The "he" references yesterday. 2. Campaigning in Wisconsin and Iowa over the weekend with the VP (areas where Bayh probably goes over well) 3. Holding the announcement until the weekend given that it's not going to be a super-exciting announcement and the base is going to be semi-disappointed.
I think it's all smoke and mirrors at this point in time. I was expecting the announcement to happen today, but no word. I'm still thinking it's Joe Biden, but who the hell knows. Go ahead and get it over with already.
Nice. It really seems like all the other signs are pointing to Biden, and I'd be really enthusiastic about that pick. It'd be a major letdown to have it be Bayh.
I was wrong about it being today, so it better be tomorrow. If it's not, then it would be after the weekend. I can't believe he would make the announcement on a Friday or on a weekend... it just wouldn't make any sense. Impeach Bush/Cheney.
We know it's no later than Saturday morning - that's when his VP tour begins (unless he keeps a brown bag over the VP's head as they go around). Tomorrow, he's in Virginia - would he want to do anything while there that distracts from his campaigning in Virginia? I'm thinking it's late tomorrow or Friday. I have no idea the strategy behind that.
The VP candidates IMing each other, from 236.com (spoiler tag because there's a bit of NSFW language): Spoiler <img src=http://assets.236.com/images/photo2/5009/original/original.jpg>
...just got off the phone... I've got the 100% inside scoop on the Dem VP nomination from a buddy of mine who is actually on the Obama legal team (imagine that). It is not anyone mentioned in this thread, if you can believe that... for those who really want to know, click on the spoiler tab. Spoiler FEDERLINE
I'm getting really scared it's Bayh. Here's the roundup of today: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080821/pl_afp/usvoteobamavp You'd think he would be pushing national security/foreign policy if the pick were Biden, and the "prepared to be president" would seem to eliminate Kaine and Sebelius. In addition, there's this from the Chron: http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2008/08/scratch_two_fro.html Of course, the "sparring partner" and economy references could also be good for Hillary, but I still highly doubt that for a number of reasons.
That would suck. He's not "change" enough to be change (Kaine, Sebelius), he doesn't have the foreign policy credentials for "experience" (Biden) and, as a Hillary supporter that most people haven't heard of, he doesn't bring over Hillary supporters (Hillary). It's like he's just OK at everything, but good at nothing. I could make a much better case for any of the other options, Hillary included.
You may have a point. the only thing I can say is that I don't think Obama sees foreign policy as a weakness even though that's the general perception. Even if he did I don't think he would want to set up in a way that would announce since I'm weak in this area I got someone who could help me with that. I guess he could highlight foreign policy experience without announcing that he needs help in the area, but I think he's fairly confident that it isn't a weakness for him. The above hypothetical may not true, but I'm just hoping it's not EB, so this may just be rationalization.
That's exactly what I was about to post. I wouldn't use him not pointing out a perceived weakness as proof that he'll pick Bayh.
Obama: I've decided on my running mate http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/21/obama.vice.president/index.html
I certainly am not deep into this like most of you. But sometimes guys who live in the trenches are too close to the action to get the 'big picture'; maybe political junkies can’t see the forest for the trees. There is something about Bayh that is very much like Edwards for Kerry in 2004. He would kind of be the bland, vanilla, inoffensive "straight man". On a purely emotional/instinctive/sound bite level he would compliment the exoticness of Obama, the first black President, with his plainness and safeness. So my gut tells me it is Bayh, for the most banal of reasons, unrelated to actual experience or substance. Of course, you guys can tear him apart for specific policy/experience reasons, and I don't doubt that they are all valid. But I think there is some evidence that this doesn't translate well to general elections. The great unwashed masses vote their gut. I mean, they voted for Bush at least once, and nearly twice. And a lot of Obama's success thus far has been from what appears to be a gut level understanding of these instinctual imperatives.
I could see this - but the counter to this would be that Edwards didn't end up helping Kerry at all. It was a pair that never seemed to fit, and Edwards didn't really bring in new voters.
So, I haven't really been paying too much attention to this whole vp business. Why do people not like Evan Bayh?
