Excellent! I have to say I find myself agreeing with 538's analysis, as much as I wish I didn't (I'd much prefer and mostly thought it would be an out-of-left-field name): http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/minutely-veep-thread-nobody-knows.html Obama is likely playing it fairly straight up and it's one of the big 4. If it's a surprise announcement, he's put a lot of pressure on himself to make it a "wow" announcement. The only two people that could clearly do that are Hillary and Gore (and if it were Hillary, frankly, I'd wait until the convention vote to add even more fireworks). Is there anyone else out-of-the-box enough that would get a wide "wow, he hit a homerun" factor with the base (who he'll be facing next week at the convention)? People like Hagel would do it for a lot of people (me, for example), but would piss off just as many, so I can't see him building someone like that up so much. A small name doesn't work with all the buildup - so it seems to eliminate any of the fringe guys.
I don't think it will happen, but I'd add Kerry to the list with Hillary and Gore. Kerry has a lot of activist (convention) types that would be very enthused by his pick. He's been a good attack dog in recent weeks, and in addition, his background fits perfectly with Wednesday's theme. I'm with you, though -- Obama's campaign has generally been very methodical and I'd be surprised if it weren't one of the main three. Biden's my guess at this point -- would have said Kaine a couple of weeks ago, but I'll go with Biden as a final answer.
You're right about Kerry. I think he would go over horribly, but I could see that. The GOP would have a field day with the "elitist" label. I'm with you on Biden. Right now, my prediction would be Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Pawlenty. Really, I'm just glad we're going to know soon. 2+ months of this is ridiculous!
To clarify - I think he'd go over well at the convention. I think he'd go over horribly with the general public.
Why do you think he would go over well at the convention? He was a sorry candidate and blew an election. What has he done to disprove his negatives or redeem himself? I don't see why a Dem partisan would have any particular affection for Kerry. I bet his selection would stun the Dem convention in a very negative way.
I'm still holding out hope for Sebelius. If it's not her then I hope it's either Biden or someone who isn't on the list. I agree with 538 that it seems likely to be a big name if it's someone who isn't on the list, but I'd add Clark to Gore-Clinton-Kerry.
I find it interesting that the people that I tick off in my head as people who were outspoken in supporting Clinton in the primary are also the ones in the thread who are most excited about the Gore rumor. This reinforces my opinion on the potential pick.
I don't think you can count me in that camp and I'd be thrilled with an Obama/Gore ticket. I'd be thrilled with him not only as a candidate but as VP. Of all possible choices, he would be my top pick. Also, Gore and Clinton are the only VP picks that could move 5-10% in national polls overnight. Tonight on MSNBC's Verdict with Dan Abrams, either Jonathan Alter (of Newsweek) or Jeff Zeleny (NYT) said he thought Gore was a more likely pick than Clinton. (I can't remember which of them said it.)
Same. That smoke screen VP article that came out a while go is coming true it seems... Have the three times in the thread title out there, but Obama pick someone totally different. It's suppose to be announced in the morning I heard.
I don't think Gore would have any interest in the VP spot. He was that for 8 years...besides, he's found his passion for the environment, being VP might actually work against that. I think he'd be better as a cabinet position - head of the EPA.
If Gore was VP I think he'd have two responsibilities: 1. Be ready to become president if necessary, and 2. Devote all his time to climate change. He'd be able to do everything he could do if he wasn't in the job but he'd have more power.
It would sure stun me in a negative way! Anytime I see Kerry's name mentioned my first thought is that somebody's having a laugh. I simply don't believe it. Obama isn't stupid. Impeach Bush/Cheney.
Likewise. I don't want any pandering to the "experience" crowd. Frankly, if you have "experience" as a politician there is a 95% chance I hate your guts.
Here's some more info to analyze: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Sweet_Obama_reserves_Springfield_Saturday.html?showall Sweet: Obama reserves Springfield Saturday Lynn Sweet reports: The Obama team, in the run-up to the Democratic convention, will showcase the new Obama ticket Saturday in Springfield at the Old State Capitol, where presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) officially kicked off his campaign in February, 2007. State of Illinois authorities have beens asked permission by Obama folks to reserve the historic spot at noon. This does not mean that this is the time and place where Obama announces his running mate; that could happen any time from Wednesday morning on. Obama's time frame is shrinking, so the announcement is coming soon. The new vice presidential contender will jump on the road with Obama to showcase the new partnership. Springfield is a leg on the Obama roots tour. Another source familiar with the planning says the campaign is readying stops in the Quad Cities of eastern Iowa and in Wisconsin in the run-up to the convention. The main things to note are where he initially plans to campaign with the VP - Iowa, Wisconsin. You'd think he'd pick places where the VP would appeal the most to do his initial campaigning. Of the big names, that seems to point to Sebelius/Bayh, moreso than Biden/Kaine. (With Kaine, you'd think you'd go to NC/VA/etc; with Biden, you'd focus on areas where national security is a bigger concern in relation to the economy). Of course, we're just working with little bits and pieces of data here, so it's hard to say if this means anything or not.
Unless Obama was deliberately trying to throw us all off course, I think this quote should definitively rule out Clinton and Sebelius: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/your_vp_senator_what_will_he_b.php Also, Biden completely walked back his "I'm not the guy" comment when he got home from playing golf. All he would say was, "I haven't spoken to anyone." I think it's gonna be him. If it is, go ahead and chalk up a victory in the VP debate right now no matter who McCain picks.
He kind of has to say "he". Saying "she" would give it away don't you think? We'll just have to wait. I don't mind Biden, but would love to see Sebelius.
I still think it is a mistake not to pick CLinton. Obama needs to re-inject some energy and enthusiasm from the democratic base, and there's no better way that to get women behind him by picking Clinton - if he does that, he's won the election. Imagine all those white women voting for Obama just to see Hillary as VP>
