[Roundball Mining Company] An article highlighting Kevin Martin's efficiency

That article had a lot of work behind it! Thanks for sharing.

I agree the most glaring omission is free throws and 3's, but the analysis was good in showing the difference between those who make open shots and forced shots.

 

Notwithstanding the author's overlooking of TS%, the stats were a useful analysis.

Elite wings are valued in the league because of their ability to either break down defenses to get open shots or their ability to convert contested shots. Inevitably, plays break down and it always helps to have a guy who can convert a contested shot at 40%. Early on in the shot clock when he offense is running and you've got options, Martin is a great guy to have because he simply takes a high percentage shot. He doesn't have the amazing athleticism of these other guys, but he knows exactly what shots play to his strengths. But as the shot clock goes to 8 seconds or less, it's better to have a guy like Kobe or Durant who can hit a shot even w/ a hand in the face. Kmart's low release makes contested shots even more inefficient.

This touches on the earlier thread about who should take the clutch shots w/ time winding down. AB has the ability to get separation off the dribble, which to me is an advantage over Kmart who needs to curl off screens. Now, if it's an in-bounds pass, Kmart could still be useful if he comes of a big screen by Yao. I'm guessing AB gets the nod most of the time since he can drive and shoot from deep.

 

The biggest thing I got from the article is

HOW THE HELL DOES MARTIN GET OPEN SO MUCH!?!?

He's never had a great passing PG or distributor at another position(ala a Lebron) to get him great looks. He's never had a complement #1 to take opposing defenses off of him. He doesn't have that ridiculous speed, strength, jumping ability, whatever that allows him to get open on athleticism. Yet he can score 25 on any given night looking like a ghost.

I feel Kevin Martin is Shane Battier of offense.

 

I think Martin runs around alot of picks and screens, and he gets open alot just off that alone, while beno udrih or some other bum at the time passed him the ball.

 

He's at the right place at the right time.

While most players work on building strength as their focal point during workouts, his focal point is stamina.

He is probably the best, if not, one of the best at moving off the ball. Him, Allen and Hamilton excel in that.

 

69.2% * 50.5% + 30.8 * 18.2% = 40.5%

Kmartin's FG% is 41.7% overall last season, which is his worst except rookie season, so where is this raw data come from?

 

So Denver fans want to prove that Melo is more efficient than usually given credit for? So what? Melo still wants to leave them.

KM is not receiving max money, unlike all the other players he studied. He plays within his strengths; that's why his TS% is high.

For that matter, each player has his strengths and weaknesses; that's why the coaches should place them in the proper system and with the right mix of teammates for them to shine. I don't know whether Melo has carried his team anywhere also. I just remember his failure in their first round playoff series last season.

 

There's something missing in his analysis. He gave the percentages but not the total number of attempts in those games he studied. He didn't study all the games so his selection of games might also have skewed his results.

Of the shots KM takes, he reports 70% are open and he converts 50% of those. Only 30% of his shots are contested and he only makes 18% of those, which is the lowest among the players he studied. But KM is not a volume shooter like Melo is; in fact he avoids taking contested shots.

Also, as someone previously pointed out, KM fishes for fouls often, i.e. he invites his defenders to contest his shot and even if he misses, he gets FTs. The analyst should really study efficiency per possession/attempt to score for each player.

 

bottom line whatever little Melo can offer over Martin does not warrant trading scola, bud, and a draft pick to get him

 

Except that he also omitted fts. When you go to the rack and get hacked, shouldn't that count as an even more contested shot? KM has the lowest conversion rate among contested shots, but that's mostly because most of the shots KM takes are either open ones or fts. OTH, majority of Melo's shots seem to be contested, and his conversion rate doesn't justify the amount of contested shots he takes.

You're right, this measures a guy's ability to make shots with a hand in his face, however 40% is such a low number, 6 out of 10 times he'll miss that shot and lose the game. Personally I've rather have the guy who gets open on majority of his shots than the guy who takes the highest % of contested and shots and makes only 40% of them.

 

The problem here is Melo ISN'T your max guy...at least if you want your max guy to win you a ring. True max guys like CP3, DW, Durant and Lebron are extremely efficient despite taking a huge volume of shots. Melo's stats have consistently shown that he is not an efficient scorer, and he doesn't give you that "bang for the buck" that other max players do. On a team like ours with a lot of quality offensive weapons I'm not sure what you will gain by adding an inefficient chucker like Melo. Being a volume chucker, he'll just be taking shots from the other guys and converting them all at his ugly ass rate.

Also I'd like to point out that taking out Fts and 3p% devalues KM a lot and makes Melo better than he really is. Melo is already a crap 3p%, if you add those contested 3's and open 3's he doesn't convert both of his open shots and contested shots % will plummet. OTH, if you count all those FTs Martin made as "contested shots" I'm sure KM's contested FG% will rise, considering he shoots above 95% in Fts.

 

One more thing I'd like to see is how they got "open." Did they create the opening with individual skill (e.g. flat out driving past someone when iso'ed)? Was it a spot-up wide-open J created by a teammate posting-up or driving to the basket? Did it come from a well-run split from the motion offense? Maybe successful pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop or curl off a double-screen?

I guess the question is who gets credit for the "opening": Was it the shooter, a teammate forcing a double-team, a great screener, or the execution of a brilliant offensive set?

 

I'll bet I know someone who already HAS those stats. And his initials are DM.

 

you're right we could use Danny Manning as an assistant coach lets try to lure him away from Kansas

 

Good point

 

Just what we need -- an injury-prone assistant coach.

 

Yao and Martin are 2 of the more devastating players in the 4th quarter when the other team is in the bonus, as Morey has alluded to.

Martin draws 7-8 FTA per game with a r****dedly high conversion rate (last year in Houston 92.4%)

The blog is right that Martin doesn't "convert" contested shots well... in terms of contact (same as Yao) but since many of those opportunities are converted into FT opportunities, the blog's conclusions about Martin's efficiency are off. Martin is one of the most efficient players in the league, particularly in the bonus.