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Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Cannonball, Jan 3, 2014.

  1. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

    Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs.

    First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady.

    Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit")

    Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.

    Round 1
    2013: EJ Manuel
    2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
    2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
    2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
    2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
    2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
    2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
    2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
    2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
    2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
    2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
    2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
    2001: Michael Vick
    2000: Chad Pennington
    1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

    Round 2
    2013: Geno Smith
    2012: Brock Osweiler
    2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
    2010: Jimmy Clausen
    2009: Pat White
    2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
    2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
    2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
    2005: (none)
    2004: (none)
    2003: (none)
    2002: (none)
    2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
    2000: (none)
    1999: Shaun King

    Round 3
    2013: Mike Glennon
    2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
    2011: Ryan Mallett
    2010: Colt McCoy
    2009: (none)
    2008: Kevin O'Connell
    2007: Trent Edwards
    2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle
    2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene
    2004: Matt Schaub
    2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
    2002: Josh McCown
    2001: (none)
    2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman
    1999: Brock Huard

    Round 4
    2013: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones
    2012: Kirk Cousins
    2011: (none)
    2010: Mike Kafka
    2009: Stephen McGee
    2008: (none)
    2007: Isaiah Stanback
    2006: Brad Smith
    2005: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors
    2004: Luke McCown
    2003: Seneca Wallace
    2002: David Garrard, Patrick Davey
    2001: Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer
    2000: (none)
    1999: Joe Germaine, Aaron Brooks

    Round 5
    2013: (none)
    2012: (none)
    2011: Ricky Stanzi, TJ Yates, Nathan Enderley
    2010: John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton
    2009: Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis
    2008: John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson, Erik Ainge
    2007: Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith
    2006: Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs
    2005: Dan Orlovsky, Adrian McPherson
    2004: Craig Krenzel
    2003: Brian St. Pierre
    2002: Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Brandon Doman, Craig Nall
    2001: Mike McMahon, AJ Feely
    2000: Tee Martin
    1999: Kevin Daft

    Round 6
    2013: (none)
    2012: Ryan Lindley
    2011: Tyrod Taylor
    2010: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike
    2009: Tom Brandstarter, Mike Teel, Keith Null, Curtis Painter
    2008: Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson
    2007: Jordan Palmer
    2006: Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski
    2005: Derek Anderson
    2004: Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker
    2003: Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury
    2002: JT O'Sullivan, Steve Bellisari,
    2001: Josh Booty, Josh Heupel
    2000: Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Tom Brady, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider
    1999: (none)

    Round 7
    2013: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree
    2012: BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish
    2011: Greg McElroy
    2010: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson
    2009: (none)
    2008: Matt Flynn, Alex Brink
    2007: Tyler Thigpen
    2006: DJ Shockley
    2005: James Kilian, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick
    2004: John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlett, Matt Mauck, BJ Symons, Bradlee Van Pelt
    2003: Gibran Handan, Ken Dorsey
    2002: Seth Burford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate
    2001: (none)
    2000: Tim Rattay, Jarioius Jackson, Joe Hamilton, Billy Volek
    1999: Michael Bishop, Chris Greisen, Scott Covington
     
    #1 Cannonball, Jan 3, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2014
    8 people like this.
  2. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

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    2002, our inaugural season, was a terrible year for QBs.
     
  3. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    2002 and 2007. In hindsight, there weren't any decent QBs in either of those drafts. 2013 could end up that way, but unlike those other drafts, people knew it was a weak QB class going in and none of them were drafted that high.
     
  4. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Contributing Member
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    Bookmarked, for every time someone brings up the foolish idea that it is easy to get a good quarterback after the first round. Anybody who bets that they are going to hit on even a second or third rounder (much less later on) is effectively betting their life savings on a quick pick for the Texas lottery.
     
  5. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    Funny how it's a reverse bell curve. Round 1 and round 7 are quite QB heavy.
     
  6. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Contributing Member

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    bigtexxx's takeaway:

    1. Your best chance of success is in the first round (vs. other rounds).
    2. However, less than 50% of QBs taken in the first round turn out to be stars.
    3. Anything past round 3 has horrible odds, and even round 3 itself has only in the past couple years provided any winners (Wilson, Foles, Glennon...still early on all 3).
     
  7. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Sucks to be Buffalo (2004)
     
  8. JeffB

    JeffB Contributing Member
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    Must spread rep.

    Thanks for taking the time to do this. Makes sense in a QB centric league that the hit % is higher in the first. When teams find one they like, they draft him.
     
  9. pocketrocket81

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    Both Aaron Rodgers and Ben Rothlisberger were on the board when we picked those particular years.
     
  10. Classic

    Classic Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  11. Oski2005

    Oski2005 Contributing Member

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    That's debatable, it's not like they were going to pull the plug on Carr after just 2 or 3 seasons. The correct course correction should have been to not pick up Carr's option after the 2005 season and sign Brees as a FA. I wonder how good he would have been under Kubiak... probably not as good as he's been with Payton, but still better than what we've had.
     
  12. Remii

    Remii Member

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    You need to be more specific... We have the #1 overall pick... Yes Rodgers was a first round pick but he was drafted with the 24th pick. Big Ben was drafted with the #11 pick.

    These are QBs drafted with the #1 overall pick going back to 1990 _
    Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Payton Manning, Tim Couch, Mike Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck.... Payton and Vick are the only two QBs that can be considered elite out of that group. And although Eli got lucky twice _ Payton,Vick, Cam, and Luck are the only franchise QBs on that list (if you want to include Bledsoe _ fine). That's 4 - 5 guys out of 14... Those percentages suxk....

    And just looking at recent history.... Russell and Foles are doing just as well as Luck and RG3.... And Dalton and Kapernick are doing just as good as Cam... Geno Smith wasn't spectacular last year but he got his team to 8-8 with no weapons to throw to. Cousins was a 4th round pick and some team may trade for him and bring him in as a starter. The young kid out in Tampa looked pretty good and Oakland beat us with some kid off the street.

    Odds are when you spend a #1 pick on a QB _ it won't work out...
     
  13. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    It's easy to look at percentages and just wanna quit the practice altogether (what...you're telling me that we have a ONE in THIRTY TWO chance to win it all next year?! screw that), but it would be the biggest statistical fallacy you could make in this situation. We're not drafting 100 quarterbacks and trying to maximize our hit rate. We're drafting one dude that we have to make a decision on. Can Bridgewater be the next Brady or is he a scrub? Can Manziel be the next Wilson or is he a scrub?

    It's without question, the way QB is treated in this league, that it needs to be addressed at some point--with probably your first pick in the draft--if you want ANY chance at a championship. So in that case, the question becomes, do we address it this year, or next? Because I really don't feel comfortable rolling with a guy that would be available at 2-1.

    Then again, I don't follow college football. I don't know if there's a diamond in the rough in this class. We could probably be decently competitive picking an "athletic" run-pass QB over a possible franchise one, for a couple years at least. But it doesn't sound like Bill O'Brien would tolerate such a strategy. Hey, good news! We hired a coach who is a QB specialist; maybe we can put the decision of who the next QB will be in his hands. Then again, our last coaching hire was also supposed to be a QB guru :(.
     
  14. Remii

    Remii Member

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    Well, if you make it to the playoffs that means you have a chance to win the super bowl. Payton, Smith, Cam, and Luck are the four #1 overall picks that made it to the playoffs this year with Rivers also being drafted in the top 5. That leaves Kapernick, Brady, Brees, Russell, Foles, Dalton all being drafted after the first with Rodgers being drafted with the 24th overall pick. So no, you do not have to draft a QB with a high pick to have a chance to win. And not too long ago people thought the Texans were a super bowl contender with a QB drafted in the 3rd round.

    Usually the QB who most everyone says is the best pro prospect coming out of college _ usually isn't. And just because you draft a quarterback because Mel and Tod have them ranked high doesn't always mean you will land a Luck or Cam with that #1 pick _ it could end up being a Carr, Sam Bradford, or Alex Smith depending on the QB draft class... I really like Johnny and I like Bridgewater but not at a price of a #1 pick and Tajh Boyd is probably better than both of them and he can be had in a later round.
     
  15. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Sam Bradford is a hit?

    Chad Pennington isn't?
     
  16. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    What % of playoff teams over the last 5 years have gotten there with a drafted QB vs. a QB acquired by other means?

    Drafting a QB is great... if you get the right one. If you don't, you don't realize it for 3-5 years as you have to make some sort of commitment to allowing them to grow. Usually a QB acquired via other means (trade/FA), while it is a rare opportunity to get one of the greats (Brees, Manning, ALEX SMITH!)... usually has a higher success rate because you already sorta know what you're getting (although Manning and Brees have far exceeded expectations).
     
  17. Major

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    The problem with trade is that you generally have to find a trade partner that has two good/great QBs.

    The problem with FA is that you can't control who's a free agent, so you might spent 3-4 years waiting for a Manning/Brees/Smith to show up on the market, and when they do, you're competing against every other team for that player.

    For example, who's available for trade/FA this year that's worth taking? The only name that's ever come up was Kirk Cousins, and he's more of a risk than the #1 pick given that he wasn't nearly that highly thought of just a year ago. With the draft, especially when you have the #1 pick, you're in total control of the process.
     
  18. Major

    Major Member

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    The bolded part is true. But the whole point of this thread is to demonstrate that while it's not necessary, you have a much higher chance of success with drafting a QB with a high pick than otherwise. Far more QBs are drafted in rounds 2-6 than round 1, so of course there will be more successes - but there's also far, far more failures.

    The whole "necessary" angle is silly - nothing is necessary in football. You could theoretically win with a scrub at QB. It doesn't mean it's a good way to go or that your odds are good.
     
  19. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    All true... just assessing how championship contending teams are built. Not all playoff teams find, or need to find, their QB via the draft.

    Sure, its the "easiest" way... but by no means is the highest % success rate. Nor am I saying they should just wait till a future HOF QB comes on the market... that doesn't make a lot of sense either.

    There is no "right" and "wrong" answer. If the Texans draft a dud this year, doesn't mean it was the "wrong" choice, just a bad outcome. And simply having total control of the process never guarantees that you're making the correct decision.

    O'Brien knows that if he drafts a QB #1 that ultimately fails... he will be fired. I do feel the QB choice should entirely be his decision.
     
  20. Remii

    Remii Member

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    Yea but you're talking about a general 1st round pick _ I'm talking about the #1 overall pick which we have and the percentages for QBs taking with the #1 pick are horrible.

    In the past 24 years 14 QBs have been taking with the #1 overall pick and only two of them have rings (the Mannings).

    But it's more about the draft class and evaluation than percentages. Take the 2011 draft... Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker were drafted in the 1st round and all three teams who drafted them need a QB... Kapernick and Dalton were drafted in the 2nd round and their teams are in the playoffs.
     

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