While it's certainly good to hear they're going to be aggressive now, there's definitely the part of me bitter that they needed that wakeup step back last year. Now is Luhnow's make or break period. He won't get fired this season if he screws up but if he doesn't properly build now then the rest of the window might be wasted.
I think everyone will agree that starting pitching is a bigger need. I simply think that the front office is identifying that genuine starting pitching improvements (i.e. Chris Archer, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana) will be cost-prohibitive. With that reality in mind, the next best thing is to find value where you can, and it appears very talented hitters will be available. In conclusion, if you can't realistically address your primary need (without selling the farm and creating other problems), then the next best thing is to add a stabilizing bat or two to our lineup. Just my two cents anyway, or how I would handle it as an armchair GM.
addition is easy it's that advanced calculus that gives everyone fits. better pitching+healthy pitchers+professional hitters = awesome2
I don't see us trading for a big name pitcher. We've got several young guys already in the majors (McCullers, Devenski, Musgrove, etc.) and more on the way (Martes, Whitley, Paulino). Better to see how they work out than blow them in a trade on anyone less than a perfect fit. Ramos is BY FAR the best fit/option for us in free agency. He's young relative to most free agents (29), does not have a qualifying offer and fills the right hole on this team. I'd look at a large 2 year deal, which would provide the flexibility and protection both Ramos and the club probably wants. Next I'd go with Josh Reddick. Again, no qualifying offer, will turn 30 in February and he adds a left handed bat to our right heavy lineup. Finally, Rich Hill. I know....injury history, etc. But I think it's a better bet than a trade. Give him a short, two year deal with big pay. All of these guys provide good upside and fill holes without compromising our long term flexibility, and we get to keep our picks. RF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa DH Gattis 1B Gurriel LF Reddick C Ramos CF Marisnick Keuchel McCullers Hill Musgrove Devenski McHugh
Ramos is coming off ACL surgery. He won't be available until mid-season, and he may not be prepared to catch at all while rehabbing. So we will likely have to add another catcher if we go after him. He has had quite a few injury problems throughout his career, this isn't the first. On top of that he is coming off a career year (huge BABIP spike). Prior to his blow up last year, his 10-15 OPS was extremely similar to Castro. There's a reason the Nats didn't extend a simple QO to a player who was so awesome this year. It's a gamble that he helps your team much this year, if at all. McCann looks like a good option but the Yankees want significant prospects, and he's expensive and old. Wieters has been OK, but his offensive and defensive skills appear to have dropped quite a bit, and he's apparently an abysmal pitch framer, one of the worst. It's an extremely flawed crop of FA catchers available.
Very well said. Get better where you can. If a GM gets over focused on having to have a TOR starter, he'll overpay and cost more wins than the TOR starter adds. I don't see Keuchel as the defining moment for end of a window. Baseball is fickle and it is just too difficult to tell if a year is in the window or not unless you have an absolutely dominant team. Astros are in a playoff possible window...but aren't going to be like the Cubs unless Crane nearly doubles payroll or guys from system blossom at a higher rate than other teams. I expect Luhnow to add pieces with years under contract as he isn't sure when Astros will play well and when they won't versus expectations. As far as TOR starters go, I expect he'll go after rentals, short term contracts (unless he gets a good deal via a trade on a guy with many years) at deadline if Astros are playing well in a given year.
I watch the playoffs every year, and I can't imagine expecting the Astros to advance with their current rotation. It's not good enough. I'm not sure it's even close. I hope I'm wrong, but I think they need a top of rotation starter. I don't really care how much money Jim Crane has to spend to acquire that guy.
The problem is there's little on the free agent for starting pitching..Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson & Doug Fister are the marquee names. I think add pitching in the bullpen and rely on fixing starting pitching internally, there will probably be better talent available at next years deadline, that said Astros are loaded with options. Healthy Keuchel & McCullers, proven solids with Musgrove (who could get much better) & McHugh. Devenski, Feliz, Martes, Paulino, Rodgers, Whitley (down the road). I think being patient and giving those 4 the opportunity and it fails make a deal for someone at the deadline. C, 1B, LF, Pen
I dunno, the Astros still finished 8th in starting pitching WAR (2nd best in the AL), and that was with McHugh/Keuchel regression as well as the injuries this rotation went through. Behind them, Musgrove should improve next year, and Martes/Paulino are close to pushing for time over Fiers. A new arm would certainly help, I just don't think it's as dire a necessity as many believe.
Playoffs separate the men from the boys. Even if McHugh is improved, his ceiling in the playoffs is diminished compared to what is needed. LMJ has the stuff. As does Keuchel if he's on. They really need somebody dependable as an addition.
Where'd you get those numbers from? I see them ranked 13th overall and ranked 6th in the AL by fangraphs.
Trades are worrisome, in terms of reality. It takes something to get something. Our farm system isn't as strong as in years past, so any trade would likely have some of our best prospects being shipped out. And we all know it takes about 3 years to replenish a drained farm system.
?? They've made trades every year of the Luhnow era... and they continue to replenish the farm system via the draft. Most prospects do not pan out. Also, most prospects lose some value the older they get or even with a tiny fraction of MLB experience (see Moran, Reed). Lastly, several key spots on the big league roster are locked up for the next 4-6 years....some of these prospects aren't going to have a for-sure path to the big leagues, while you also have a new draft class coming in/developing every year that will also warrant promotion. Their current window is going to be only as big as the prime years of Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, LMJ, and whatever is left of Keuchel. They need to be doing everything possible to maximize the MLB team around them, and if trading prospects is the most competitive/direct way to do that (i.e. - they can't sign free agents outright), then they need to do that.
This is where the Astros have been short sighted. They should have started addressing this issue the last few years. There were suitable aces on the market the last two years in free agency and the Astros sat on their thumbs. When solid values (Lester/Cueto) were available, the Astros passed and now are in a position to either not get an ace or vastly over pay in trade.
The purpose of a farm system is not to have a good farm system, it's to ****ing win the big boy games.
