A little touchy today aren't you? How do you detect attitude in a two sentence response? I was just giving you info that you obviously did not have so don't be so sensitive .
Crash, How can you say that JWill will not avg 20 ppg? Who cares if few players have done it before? How many top 3 picks average 22 ppg in college? How many of them were on a quality team like Duke? How many are given almost complete control of a team from the onset? Francis averaged 18 ppg as a rookie. And you are saying that JWill cant score an extra basket? Gimme a break.
Is it possible? yes. Is it likely? no. Facts are facts. Only 1 non big man in the last ten years as far as I know has reached that mark in the first year. People that have not hit the 20 point mark: Steve Francis Vince Carter Chris Webber Paul Peirce Jalon Rose Grant Hill (he almost made it) There are a lot of things that factor into a rookie reaching marks such as scoring avg's over 20. One is the rookie wall that almost every rookie hits at some point. Another is getting used to a much higher level of competition. I just think when you look at all of the people that have come into the NBA in the last 10 years and only one player in the backcourt has been able to eclipse the 20 points per game mark it say's something.
Big Dawg avg'd 22 his rookie year? Damn how did he get left out of the ROY award that was shared by Kidd and Hill? OK so now we have six total but still only one backcourt player. It could happen but I just don't think it is very likely.
Ok crash you win. Jay will probably average 19 ppg. Man, I was so wrong with my 21 ppg prediction. How could I be so stupid? There are about 20 players that averaged 19 ppg. Is it ok if I predict Jay Will to score 19?
Dude, predict what you want. I just don't think it will happen. Its just my oppinion, nothing more nothing less.
Crash, my logic is as follows: If you look at players under 6'4" who went 1 or 2 in the draft in terms of their college dominance and pre-draft evaluations AI (23.5PPG, 7.5 APG) and Isiah Thomas (17 PPG, 8 APG) represent the two best comparisons for JW over the last 20 years IMO. (Francis, who posted a very respectable 18 and 6.6 was far more raw than the above 3, and guys like Bibby are a notch below in pure athletic ability). I think JW scoring numbers will likely be in between the two (AI/Isiah) in that he will be a little more explosive as an individual offense player than Thomas right away because of JW strength, though like AI (or SF for that matter) neither will be the distributer (APG and A/TO ratio especially) that Isiah was. Also remember Damon Stoudamire went to a similarly crapy team as JW will go to this year and posted 19 and 9 his rookie year largely because of it (a player with similar strength, shooting and quickness attributes though JW is a more natural scorer and is considerably taller IMO). I would break it down something like this assuming no health issues: odds JW scores above 16PPG-95% odds JW scores above 17PPG-75% odds JW scores above 18PPG-66% odds JW scores above 19PPG-50% odds JW scores above 20PPG-33% I think if you picked 19 PPG +/- 1.5 you would have a great shot at nailing his scoring average. That isn't that far from 20PPG, and I would not expect him to get 20PPG but it would not surprise me in the least if he does.
sorry, i just noticed this quote. how odd that "all he has to do" is something 90% of all NBA players can't do at the same time... at least on our team.
I can't believe that Drew Gooden isn't getting any speculation here... 1) He was neck and neck with Jay-Will for NCAA Player of the Year. 2) He is going to a team that is willing and able to use rookies. 3) He is a post-player, who generally have more success as rookies. 4) His best natural skill, rebounding, is A) the least likely skill to have slumps, and B) The skill most needed by his new team, and C) Pretty conceded to be the best in this rookie class (Yao Ming being unknown), and therefore probably has one of the glamour stats already in his sight. 5) He, Jay-Will, and Butler are generally conceded to be the most NBA ready amongst the top rated guys. 6) Jerry West et. al fell in love with him, which is a pretty good endorsement right there, and West said they already consider him one of their cornerstones, along with Gasol. 7) The guy is already damn good, but is also considered to have a big upside, both immediate and long-term. I'm not saying it's a gimme that he wins over Williams, Butler, or whomever, but, man, it's very strange, IMO, that he's getting so little respect in here. One not-too-great performance vs. Wilcox should have no effect on his standing for this year, as he had plenty of other games where he was dominant against stiff competition, and many guys have had poor last games, and gone on to be stellar pros/rookies.Besides, his game wasn't that bad, and he did get his team to the Final Four as a Junior.
