I think it's a huge mistake to depend on Bagwell at 1B. If he comes back, great. It's a tremendous bonus. But if we're depending on the Bagwell of 2002-04 to return to form to make our season, I'm terrified. The Astros seem, at least to some extent, to be taking this route (of not depending too much on Bagwell). After all, with the quotes from Purpura and McLane about wanting to add offense and the pursuit of Nomar... do you really think Nomar was getting offered $6 mil + incentives to be a super-utility man? I love Jeff Bagwell and there's nothing more I'd like than for him to come back, get on base at a .370 clip and hit 25-30 home runs. But given the nature of his shoulder and the surgery I think it's a tremendous mistake to depend too much on his performance. Furthermore, even if Bagwell miraculously comes back and plays well, there's still room for him and a potential outfielder. Jason Lane has played decent in center field before. He's no Beltran, that's for sure, but he's more than capable and covers more ground than he might appear to on first glance. It's not out of the realm of possibility, if the Astros acquire a legit corner OF and Bagwell proves to be a capable starter, to have an outfield of Lane in center, Berkman in left/right and (new player) in the other spot, with Taveras as the "super sub."
I have no problem not getting rondell white. But the Astros need to upgrade their offense, or just maybe give Hunter Pence a chance to prove himself.
I tend to agree on Bagwell. But how do you convince a player of that? Players want to play - you've got Bagwell, Berkman, and Lane on your team. If Bagwell *is* healthy, that player is screwed. Why would Rondell White come here when he can go somewhere else and know that he's the starter?
Sorry - responded before reading all of this. I don't disagree with this, but I think the Astros are committed to letting Willy develop as the everyday CF. Remember he skipped AAA, so last year was even more of an adjustment than a regular player. I suspect the Astros believe he'll break out and be a legitimate leadoff player soon.
The Cat, What else are they going to do? You can't expect them to try and force Bagwell out if he thinks he still has a chance of being productive. Could you imagine the public outcry if they did that? You're also going to have a hard time convincing a Rondell White or a Nomar to come here when they may not even play everyday. The Astros are between a rock and a hard place this offseason because of this Bagwell situation. The only way out of it is to obtain a bat that is significantly better than Lane or a big bat SS (Tejada), IMO. I'm hanging my optimism on DVauthrin's pointing out that once Berkman was healthy last year, we were 5th in the league in runs.
You tell them two things. 1.) Bagwell's incredibly unlikely to be a regular starter. Keep that behind closed doors, don't tell the media, but let them know the situation. Most will probably take the risk. 2.) Even if Bagwell starts, you've still got a good chance to start. There's a possibilty Lane could move to center. There's a possibility they could outplay Lane. And even if they're on the bench, they would almost assuredly get 400, possibly 500 ABs. But yes, I'll agree that it probably keeps us out of the race for some upper-tier guys. But for the Rondell White's of the world, I think he'd be perfectly willing to accept that role. I think that was evident by his trip down here. Also, my fear stems from last offseason. It's the failure to sign a Burnitz/Cruz for very cheap to replace Beltran and putting a 27-year-old outfielder (Luke Scott) in the opening day lineup who has never been much of a prospect and had almost no AAA experience. His entire resume was one hot spring training. That, to me at least, shows irresponsible managing. If you're banking on mediocre-at-best prospects in your system to suddenly breakout and play a premium offensive position (LF/RF) on your team, you have too much faith in your system. Maybe for 2B/SS/C, but not for LF/RF. Sign a mediocre corner outfielder in free agency as a fallback plans. Most other teams do it... I'm not sure why this is such an evil to us. Everyone needs backup plans, especially when the initial plan is as shaky as Jeff Bagwell's shoulder. But I'm not going to get too upset. The offseason isn't over yet. But our lack of a presence in rumors, the fact that White/Sanders are getting snapped up, and the past history of Purpura has me very worried.
I wish I had that optimism. But in that time period where Berkman was healthy, Ausmus had a .380 OBP, by far better than his career average. It's likely he'll regress to his career patterns, and the 5th in the league statistic is probably inflated by that. Rondell White wouldn't have taken the visit down here and taken the physical if he weren't extremely interested in playing here. Purpura's quotes in the paper about trying to examine his shoulder made it sound as if the ball was in the Astros' court. imo, we chose not to take the risk because of his shoulder and because Purpura has (what I consider) too much faith in the Luke Scott's and Chris Burke's of the system as potential LFs. Also, don't underestimate the possibilty of Lane playing center. I know Major addressed this and said the Astros are committed to developing Willy, but I don't think it would be giving up on Willy. It would be playing him as a fourth outfielder for a year at the most (again, more than likely Bagwell can't start, or if he does doesn't make it through the season). It wouldn't be giving up on him. Whatever Purpura needs to say to land a FA (even if it's a lie), he needs to say it. I'd love it if Jeff came back to his 2004-self. But as shaky as his shoulder is, I want a better fallback plan than the Luke Scott/Chris Burke platoon. Good general managers find a way... can Purpura do that? The next two months will tell a lot.
I just did a month by month breakdown from June to Sept/Oct-pre playoffs. June: 4.76 runs per game July: 5.17 runs per game August: 4.03 runs per game September/Oct: 4.37 runs per game In fact if I break down the key players in the lineup: 1. Willy: .343 .356 .412 .768 in June, .321 .353 .357 .710 in July, .309 .353 .327 .680 in August, .241 .264 .253 .517 in September 2. Biggio: .276 .345 .408 .754 in June, .263 .333 .535 .869 in July, .245 .302 .316 .618 in August, .231 .283 .490 .774 in Sept 3. Berkman: .308 .427 .538 .966 in June, .362 .455 .638 1.093 in July, .242 .368 .389 .758 in August, .319 .455 .713 1.167 in Sept. 4. Ensberg: .287 .369 .638 1.008 in June, .300 .391 .627 1.018 in July, .264 .402 .538 .940 in August, .295 .403 .475 .878 in Sept 5. Lane: .259 .308 .647 .955 in June, .317 .356 .512 .868 in July, .289 .322 .530 .852 in Aug, .279 .342 .481 .823 in Sept. 6. Everett: .263 .311 .326 .637 in June, .267 .306 .416 .721 in July, .274 .296 .379 .675 in Aug, .218 .244 .276 .520 in Sept Oh btw: Everett at home: .282 .323 .425 .748 Everett on road: .216 .258 .307 .565. So he is solid offensively at home at least. 7. Ausmus: .137 .279 .176 .455 in June, .301 .363 .370 .732 in July, .310 .410 .380 .790 in Aug, .286 .398 .429 .826 in Sept. 8. Lamb: .250 .280 .250 .530 in June, .235 .255 .490 .745 in July, .171 .190 .244 .434 in Aug, .319 .392 .609 1.001 in Sept. 9. Palmeiro: .310 .375 .552 .927 in June(29 ab's), .345 .383 .564 .947 in July(55 at bats), .250 .282 .333 .615 in Aug, .115 .233 .192 .426 in Sept. 10. Burke: .244 .313 .349 .661 in June, .244 .306 .295 .601 in July, .265 .329 .544 .873 in August, .250 .302 .375 .677 in Sept Judging by these numbers, Morgan and Lane and Lance were the most consistent hitters we had. But August was mainly due to horrible months by Biggio and Berkman. June's 4.76 had nothing to do with brad ausmus, but everything to do with solid months from Willy, Biggio, Lane, Ensberg and Berkman. September was marked by an injured Ensberg and a slumping Taveras. Lamb and Ausmus made up for their contributions that month. In July, the whole offense was on fire.
Actually, I think Rondell White could have helped us out this year. It would've been easier than watching Mike Lamb whiff over and over again. Either way, it's nothing worth b****ing about.
Are too capable of thinking for yourself? Good comeback by the way - when you have nothing to say, act like an idiot. Brilliant!
I just love when you guys generalize like this. I for one enjoyed the postseason. It was fun and I'd like nothing else but to see the team make it again. But here's a newsflash for you. For the millionth time that was LAST season and if we actually want to get there again we are going to have to improve this team. I'm worried that Purpura is incapable of improving this team based on past performance. He didn't improve the team from 2004 to 2005 but relied on Pettitte getting healthy and having his career year, Ensberg having a career year, Clemens having a historic year and totally lucking out with a AA player not falling on his face in the majors. I don't understand how you cannot "get" this.
This is EXACTLY how I feel, but I'm not going to sit on my hands and let it go by without venting some frustration. That's just not me.
Andy Pettitte being healthy is not some insignificant improvement. Furthermore, while Andy should regress some next year, he should still easily be a cy young candidate type pitcher if healthy. Willy Taveras was a pleasant surprise, I'll admit, but the options were limited at the time and still are. Also, his speed made up for a lack of refinement. Morgan Ensberg showed his potential in 2003, had an injury sap his power in 04, and sure enough, his power returned in 2005 and he got a full season's worth of at bats with it. I was one who thought we might have to deal him in April but he turned it on and proved me and a lot of people wrong. I don't think you get it. At the time last offseason, the team was focused on Beltran(if they dared to talk to other CF options Boras would have closed of negotiations, and the whole city would have been pissed off), and they couldn't offer LF to anyone because what good player would agree to a month trial until Berkman came back. They didn't forsee Bagwell going under the knife like what happened, and they had Lamb who had a very productive 04 on the bench already. You can say well they started Lane. Jason Lane had bided his time in the organization and had proven he could hit at every minor league level. He deserved a chance to start, and had a nice year, better than Burnitz(the free agent possibility at the time) did. Also, Purpura did have a July 31st trade with seattle worked out, reportedly burke and nieve for winn and moyer. But the 42 now 43 year old moyer wanted a contract extension as part of the deal supposedly, and nixed it. That should not go unnoticed like it does. Then we get to this offseason. Where can you tell a free agent we have an opening. The Bagwell spot is the only place that makes any sense offensively, unless you can get an upgrade on Lane-not easy to do or an upgrade on Everett(Tejada only one who qualifies) or Taveras(13 mil on damon, no thank you). But the problem is Bagwell could easily show he is back in ST and earn the job. Then one of the two players has to accept being in a bench role. Why would a solid free agent outfielder accept coming here knowing he might have to sit the bench here, when another team could let him start? The team can't just say, Jeff goodbye. If they did, players wouldn't respect the organization the way they do, and people wouldn't want to play here. It seemed like White and Nomar were both open to that possibility, but they got guaranteed starting roles elsewhere. Now we get to pitching. Brett Tomko just got 8.7 mil for 2 years. A guy who is a career 3rd starter AT BEST. If prices don't come down, I can understand giving the ball to Zeke or Hirsh or Nieve instead of signing a veteran. I already showed you how Zeke did in his 2nd stint with the club, and the team reportedly raves about Hirsh and Nieve. The bullpen doesn't need a signing, unless you trade one to get a bat, and I personally would like to keep it together. Look, I'd at least like a RHB to platoon with Lamb in case Bags has to shut it down for good. But you act like last year was luck, it wasn't. It was strong pitching with an underrated offense from June on. From that team everyone is back but Roger and Viz. The difference this year is they don't have to spend the first 2 months acclimating rookies to playing in MLB or having certain hitters "cough" Ensberg and Lane trying to get used to new roles and you should have Lance Berkman for a full year instead of 4 months(you can say he came back in may, but it takes a few weeks to get back in the groove). Plus, guys like Lane, Taveras, Ensberg know they belong for good and have confidence in themselves. Also, Wandy and Zeke know they can pitch here as well. You just don't seem to understand that the Astros do not have much money to play with and more importantly, very few starting positions available if any. Not only that, the free agent market is not a buyers market this year so it's hard to fill needs that way. That leaves trades. The thing is, teams want pitching for bats. The Astros aren't going to give away their top prospect arms unless it is a difference making stick, especially considering they are still a team in transition from old players to the young guard. But right now teams want those guys for non difference makers offensively. Not only that, but it's especially true considering those top prospect pitchers may be able to win spots in either the rotation or bullpen in spring training.
