Rockets Window is 2014-2015, highest probability of championship

To speak generally, the CBA makes difficult any long term dynasty.

Once a team wins, it cannot afford to pay all its key players.

Once a rookie develops, it is difficult to pay him market salary and still have the cap space to contend (e.g., Parsons). Except for superstars, the market value is always higher than the "amount team can pay if they wish to contend" value.

The churn in the NBA was dizzying as it was, careers being so short.

Therefore, the long term success of the team depends mainly on its front office in talent selection, in talent development, and in trades. The biggest weapon Houston has is Morey, who is a $50 million a year guy, and the analytics department, the Vipers too. It is more important we have a superstar GM.

 

I wouldn't just assume these championship contenders will shy away from luxury tax. Now repeaters tax or whatever it's called is a different story.

 

Thunder will still be good tho.

 

Dont you think the development of Stephenson and George will play a big impact on whether or not the Pacers will be better next year?

 

The Pacers will NOT match any max offers that Stephenson gets. Bird ain't stupid.

 

How about age? A team like the Spurs are always in decline due to old star players. It's amazing what they did last year and still doing it this year.

 

Those teams will still be tough! But it does seem like next year is a year to really hope for!

 

The window is at least 3 or 4 years, the Rockets are a young team and they'll be getting better in the next few years even if they make no moves at all

 

I'll concede this season for a championship next year.

 

When Duncan retired . Pop retires .
Nowitzki is getting old .
Lakers are down .

 

Lin and Asik were expected to be gone but the rockets will find a backup center to fill in and get a bench scorer to cover for the loss of Lin. Beverley and Parsons are locks to stay (unless included in a package for a star). One of D-Mo and T. Jones will be moved for another asset.

Even with the likely loss of Lin/Asik/D-Mo and the acquisition of replacements, there is likely to be very little drop off when you account for typical improvement of a very young team and chemistry. This is also without taking into account next years cap space and any rotation level players found in the draft.

Morey's thinking actually seems to be the opposite of yours. He's loading up for an 'all in' 2015-2016 season.

 

I'm with you, no need to use your ass to make diamonds. Pure enjoyment this year watching the young guys get it together.

 

A ring this year would be a HUGE SURPRISE. Seems unlikely but possible. The team would have to get blazing hot at just the right time and shock the dookie out of the Clippers and Thunder. And then the Heat or Pacers. Chances get better with time barring serious injuries. We may have all the pieces, but I don't think so. Lin and Asik probably need to be moved, which means more time and further adjustments.

 

You don't think players on their team will develop also? You can't just say ours will.

 

Morey knows how to get cheap supporting parts. Don't act like the sky will fall if Hamilton, Lin, Asik, DMo, Jones, and even Beverley leaves. 1. We're not gonna let them all leave together; and 2. Morey will have contingency plan upon contingency plan to replace such guys in the event that we have to do so.

Question: which championship contender has the most draft picks and the most cap flexibility to work with in the next three years? Yeah. You're not gonna have to worry about Rockets management living up to its end of the bargain. Now the burden is all on the shoulders of the superstars, to do what superstars do and show up when it matters most.

 

Jones and D-Mo are locked in through the 2015-2016 season at very cheap rates. D-Mo likely will be easily able to fill in the backup 5 role that season. Parsons probably will be resigned after the 2014-2015 season as it stands now.

Basically for 2015-2016 I have a good feeling at this very moment about going in with Howard, D-Mo, Jones, Parsons and Harden. In all probability the 5 and the 4 are set after Morey adds a couple of vet minimum contracts. Also the 3 and 2 are set. That only leaves the PG, and there is an immense amount of talent at that position in the NBA. And do not forget about that max contract money available in the summer of 2015.

 

Highest probability compared to when, now? I think that goes without saying. This team should be better next season, so they should technically have a higher probability of winning it all. You don't really now what's going to happen after next year to know how high our probability will be after that.

As for OKC, Thabo could realistically be replaced quickly. I doubt they'll miss a beat.