This one's a little messy cause I'm strapped for time. Sorry. For reference, here is my other thread (has glossary, pictures, etc.) http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=125934&page=1&pp=20 Summary: So that last Rafer 3pt shot play wasn't the best play in my opinion, but it was far from a bad play. Offensively, the Rockets in the last half of the 4th quarter were getting decent shots. YM got the ball inside 6 times, went 1/4, 1 turnover and got to the line for 2fts. TM made a layup, made an alleyoop, and missed a good look on a floater (before missing the final trey). JH made a jumper, made a transition putback, and missed an open jumper. And Rafer missed a transition layup and open trey. They were all good possessions except for that 1 turnover by YM, otherwise, the Rockets just missed good shots. Mostly by YM but also by JH and RA...but that's okay because they were good shots. Defensively was where they really broke down: -open jumper by MH at FT line (46% from that spot) missed - took advantage of YM and JVG PnR strategy -open z2 jumper by CB (41% from there) missed - TM couldn't keep GG in front of him -DW drove by RA 2 times in a row w/o using a screen but missed 2 layups thanks to the Help D of JH and YM -AK makes a MQ CnS over TM (actually good defense, shot bounced around and in) -bad off-ball defense by RA and YM allows DW open under the hoop, which leads to an open made J by MO -YM bad needless double team leading to a CB putback -TM misses 2 PnR rotations in a row leading to a dunk and 1/2fts -JH missed off ball screen rotation leading to an AND 1 by MH -The one time they stop CB on the PnR, either JVG drew up a bad rotation or CH screwed up by leaving MO wide open, and when MO missed the 3, CH was so late on the rotation that SB had to rotate off his man and CH still went to contest the 3 after SB already did that, leaving TM alone fighting for the rebound against 2 Jazz players. JVG needs to instruct YM to rotate to the shooter when he is the closest defender. CH screwed up, but the Rockets also need to stop treating YM differently on defense. I know it saves his energy, but the end of the game should be different. On that play Yao finally was instructed to show hard and it worked, but Yao also should have rotated to MO (b/c of CH's screw up) and CH after initially screwing up, should have stayed in the paint to box out, not have Yao crashing from the key, b/c that's just bad rebounding position. -SB "late" rotation on PnR leading to CB AND1..."late" b/c I honestly think SB drew the charge. So while the offense was just missing good looks, the defense was just terrible. They made 4 good defensive plays (giving up 5 pts) and 8 bad defensive plays (giving up 1 offensive rebound and 8 pts) So its weird that bad defense was more effective than good defense, but in the long run, that's not how it should be done. If their offense scores against good defense, you just clap your hands and say you beat our best. But when TMac screws up 3 rotations, Yao stupidly double teams, and JHo and Hayes each screw up, then that's a big problem. JVG better change his defense, or at least hold his guys accountable for not doing their jobs. Documentation w/remarks 6:36 Rockets up 71-70 YM vs MO rt low block, z4 LQ FuJ, shooting foul by MO (2/2 ft) 73-70 GG vs TM z13, oba: PM z6 screen for MH, SB over, YM way back in paint MH HQ CnS z7, Yao too far back, but got reb (DW assistable) TM z11 vs GG; P rt by YM and roll; GG under, PM stays w/YM; oba: JH cuts to ft line from under hoop while MO stays under hoop to help against TM penetration JH HQ CnS z7 created by TM 75-70 PM moving screen CB subs in for PM YM left low block vs MO; backs in, drives to middle; MH doubles and strips ball off YM foot GG z6 iso vs TM, drives left all the way to hoop, D collapses, GG dumps to CB, HQ z2 CnS miss, JH bb win vs MH TM z12 vs GG, pass to YM deep paint, left turning layup HQ by MO z1 miss (TM assistable) Transition 5 on 4: DW z7 vs RA, crossover, gets to hoop LQ layup blocked by JH help D, Jazz ball Inbounds play: DW somehow got in front of RA (camera too late), LQ layup attempt over YM help, miss Transition 2 on 3: RA drives left side fullcourt vs DW; MO guarding JH in paint, AK right side RA miss LQ layup under MO help D, JH OReb putback HQ 77-70 4:31 DW vs RA; P rt by MO and fade back, RA over, JH late help on DW, MO fades to z12 gets pass, MQ CnS over recov JH, miss CB OReb (no fault of anyone) DW z13 vs RA, oba: AK runs from z5 to z7, 2 separate picks by MO and CB, TM fights through each; AK z7 MQ CnS over recov TM hits 77-72 TM vs AK z6, P left and Fade to z5 by JH; AK over CB back, DW helps; TM pass to JH MQ CnS z5 over CB recov (TM assistable) CB z8 vs JH; oba: DW runs left side to hoop use z5 screen by MO, YM stays w/MO, RA over screen, DW gets pass under hoop, YM helps while MO fade to back of z5; HQ CnS hits 77-74 YM z3 rt hook LQ over MO, miss 3:12 (This is where I think the Rockets really went wrong) DW vs RA z8, P left and Roll by CB; RA around, YM back; RA gets caught behind both DW and CB, YM is essentially guarding 2 players by himself while TM is planted in z9 guarding "sharpshooter" AK who is behind the arc on the rt side. DW penetrates and bounce pass rt to CB, YM tries to slide but gets the blocking foul. This defense has to change. Either switch the PnR, show hard on the PnR or go under it. DW is 46% from the top of the key, so I understand not wanting to leave him. But CB is 67% around the hoop!!!! Meanwhile TM is brainfarting sticking w/ AK who is a 14% shooter from z9 and 10% shooter from z14. Basically, the way the Rockets defensed the PnR, TM was majorly at fault for not rotating to the paint. It's okay to leave AK open, and besides if DW kicks to him, TM or RA can rotate over to make it a MQ CnS instead of a HQ CnS, and besides, AK can't shoot. AK got lucky on his last shot from the key that bounced around all iron before falling in. So either change the defense, or rip into TM's crappy defensive rotation, b/c it's just r****ded to have YM guarding both DW and CB. result CB 1/2 ft 77-75 TM z11 vs AK, hand off to RA vs DW; oba: YM sets screen (um, upon reviewing the play, it was an illegal screen, YM totally was moving and threw his shoulder in there...good no call for a Rockets fan)on AK z7, AK over, no one rotates to TM beautiful alleyoop, HQ pass and HQ situation 79-75 AK z2 vs TM, backs in turns rt, LQ FuJ; YM no need to help, but abandons CB to help, late anyways and doesn't effect the missed shot at all...by the way, AK is an 8% shooter from z2. CB gets the easy OReb put back. 79-77 YM left low block vs MO, spin rt 1 hand jumper MQ, hits (superstar in the low blocks) 81-77 DW vs RA z8, P rt and Roll by CB; RA over, YM back again guarding 2 players...this time at least TM leaves AK alone in left corner 3pt area to rotate, but futily rotates too late...YM gets the facial but it wasn't his fault, CB rolling dunk 81-79 1:52 YM left low block iso vs MO, backs in, steps through double team by MH, FuJ z3 HQ miss (argh...great footwork, couldn't finish. What's weird is that YM is only a 31% shooter from z3...yikes. He's great in the deep paint, and really good from the left and right low blocks, but really bad from the paint that is further than 5 feet from the hoop) 1:37 DW vs RA z13, oba: CB z7 screen for MH cutting to the hoop, SB over, YM stays w/CB...looks like JH is supposed to rotate off of MO to stop MH from getting an open layup, rotation was too late...MQ layup AND 1 FT 1/1 Rockets losing 81-82 TM z7 iso vs AK, beautiful crossover, z3 MQ floater over CB help D, miss DW z8 vs RA, P rt and Roll by CB; this time YM show hard, RA over and TM rotates to good position under hoop to stop CB. Problem is Rockets leave MO wide open on the 3pt CnS from z11. MO shoots .394 from z11 and I'm sure it's better when he's wide open. HQ CnS fortunate miss by MO, but what makes it worse is that SB AND CH abandon their positions to try to rotate to MO (which is futile b/c they're very late), which leaves TM down low rebounding against CB AND MH. YM and AK are crashing the boards from different spots...but 2 on 3 rebounding is a bad situation for the Rockets, on Defense too!!! CH crashes back and knocks the ball out of bounds or MH would have got it....just terrible defense. If you're going to allow MO and CnS, have the closest defender rotate to him (this case it was YM). Otherwise, don't rotate off MO...do that off AK. 1:02 DW z7 vs RA, P left and Roll by CB; YM shows, RA under...SB rotates off MH in left corner to take charge attempt on rolling CB. Result AND 1 (upon further review, SB beat CB to the spot and his heal was not on the line. CB pushed SB into the charge/block line...basically, the refs blew the call. I've watched Ronnie Nunn's show religiously over the last 2 months, so I'm pretty sure he'd agree w/me that the refs blew it. Sad that the 1 time the Rockets play PnR correctly thanks to SB, that it ends up on a blown call...should have been a charge but I guess that evens out the missed offensive foul that YM did on AK which freed up TM's dunk) FT hit, Rockets losing 81-85 TM vs AK z12, YM P left, MO switches to TM, AK over, TM drives left by MO for HQ layup 83-85 DW z8 vs JL, P left and Roll by CB, YM shows hard, JL under, CB gets pass and stops for FuJ back of z4 over SB rotate, b/c SB got there in time. miss TM vs AK z12, P left and Roll by YM, AK over MO shows, DW rotates off RA to help; TM pass to RA HQ CnS over DW rotate back D Okay, this is the play that everyone hates. Honestly, I don't think it was a bad shot...it wasn't the best shot, but not a bad shot. When TM turned the corner, DW stepped into help off RA. The easiest pass is to RA. The 2nd easiest pass is to YM, but YM has at times received a rolling pass and couldn't stop and pop, and often charged on someone...and CB was in position ready to rotate to defend a rolling YM. If TM passed to YM, YM would have to either A) stop and pop from z3, which he is 31% from, or B) swing it to SB b/c SB would be wide open off the CB rotation...and SB is money from the rt 3pt corner, specifically 49% from z14. RA also had the angle to pass it to YM in z3, but from his body language, the instant RA caught the ball, he was going to shoot it, where he is 37% from that shooting zone. Personally, I understand why TM didn't pass it to YM (though I wish he would have), and I understand why Rafer shot (b/c it was a wide open HQ CnS), but the better option was there. By the time RA got the ball, YM's charge momentum was gone and RA could have hit YM w/a good pass in which YM would have the chance to put up a close shot over CB or swing it to SB for a wide open 3. Last play of game: SB sets an off ball screen for TM in z11, TM then runs to YM who sets a hand off screen in z13, but for some reason, JL and RA were all standing around YM and TM, putting 4 defenders in the same area all bunched up...so the play was just stupid...RA and JL were not doing what they were supposed to be doing. TM got free dribbling in the corner where he should have taken that MQ J, but he deemed it too difficult. I disagree, but oh well. I also am not sure if DW fouled TM when TM finally decided to shoot.
Kim, how do you determine the "quality" of shots? Do you have some sort of stat tracking program that differentiates between face-up/fadeaway/turnaround/running jumpers? I'm interested to see that you called Yao's jumper at 6:36 a low quality jumper even though his hotzones for this year shows he's shooting close to 47% from the right box (zone 4).
I think they were tired and saving energy. That's why they stopped aggressively going after rebounds.
is that due to playing the starters too much throughout the season and sticking to an 8 man rotation?
I'm not sure. JVG tends to keep certain starters in too long at a stretch. Especially Yao had to come back in earlier than I would have liked in the 4th because our offense totally blew without him.
Quality of shot depends on the defender. Click the link to my other thread for photographic illustrations of LQ, MQ, and HQ shots. A hot zone shooting % is different from QoS (Quality of Shot). The first shot from Yao on my breakdown was a LQ jumper b/c MO (Memut Okur) was all over Yao. There was no space where Okur had to jump forward to recover...he was basically straight up. So QoS mostly depends on proximity and position of the defender. Okur was so close to Yao that he hit Yao's wrist on the jump shot attempt and the foul was called. Here's the deal w/low quality shots. Superstars are the players who can make LQ shots and are usually the only ones who are allowed to take LQ shots. Shooting fouls usually occur on LQ shots b/c they are closely defended. Once in a while a player has a wide open dunk attempt and the defender fouls him from behind to stop it. That's a high quality shot that gets fouled. Also, QoS doesn't take into account height of the defender. Through good research it is my opinion that Shawn Marion can get away with giving up MidQuality shots to T-Mac b/c Marion is so tall, while Derek Fisher shouldn't be guarding T-Mac at all, b/c T-Mac will score on Fisher even if it's a Low Quality shot. This isn't genius, but it really is interesting that my research has been very consistent in showing that Quality of Shot (basically how good the defender is playing) is important, but so is height of the defender, and the shooting area of the offensive player. It says a lot about Yao's ability for him to be shooting 46% from a zone where's the vast majority of his shots are Low to Mid Quality. That shows Yao is a superstar scorer. JHo is a great with his Catch N Shoot jumper, but when it comes to creating vs 1 on 1 defense in the blocks, Jho's like a 35% shooter.
So Kim if you were the coach, what would you advise the team when they play the Jazz in the playoffs?
Personally, I don't think the defensive breakdowns had anything to do with fatigue. Fatigue probably played a role in Yao going 1/4 down the stretch, but not with the defense. The defensive breakdowns were as follows: TMac brainfarting once and being slow twice Yao brainfarting once and being slow once Jho being extremely slow on the rotation Hayes brainfarting on the very next play after replacing Jho for being slow Rafer got burned twice, but Jho and Yao backed him up good Basically, for JVG's current defensive strategy, the whole team needs to be on the same page and ready to rotate. If the Rockets are unable to execute defensively, then JVG must come up with something else, b/c if the brainfarting and slowfootedness continues in the playoffs, they will be doomed. On the bright side, there is plenty of room to play better defensively.
Clone Shane Battier 2 times and play the 3 Battiers with Yao and TMac. Seriously, after closely watching the games, Shane Battier's defensive awareness is amazing...he's always the one covering up for other people's screw ups. However, Battier is not the fleetest of foot and has problems with quicker players. The Rockets know how to rotate...they've been great before, so just keep them mentally focused (take ginseng?). Also, if you don't want to tire Yao out, mix up a zone defense in there instead of playing Yao back on the Pick and Rolls. Otherwise, Yao needs to show hard on the pick and rolls and use his reach to force DW to make a tough pass. Perhaps put Kirk Snyder or TMac or Battier on Deron Williams, b/c Rafer could not prevent Deron from making any pass any time he wanted. Keep Yao on Boozer on post ups (Yao did great straight up), b/c Boozer is deadly in the paint and Yao is the only one with the size to bother him. But on pick and rolls, have Battier or TMac (TMac especially needs to work on rotating to charge position) be ready to move into position for Boozer rolling. Boozer posting up is one thing, but Boozer rolling...he has to make a quick decision, so he's either going to stop and pop from 10 ft over Mac or Battier (this is a good result for the defense) or force the contact, which should be a charge if the rotation is good (big if). Most importantly, for the love of God please rotate all help defense off of Andre "sharpshooter" Kirilenko. He's their worst shooter by far...so box him out on the inside of him and rotate off of him on the perimeter. Don't give him wide open shots, but have someone rush at him...and if there is a wide open shot that must be given up, it should be him and not Okur. No reason to have Okur shooting MQ Catch and Shoots when you can do the same for AK with a different rotation scheme.
why the hell aren't there more posts like this. thank you putting some thought into what you are saying. i just wish people around here would do that a bit more often...
For me, it would take a two weeks vacation to think all of that stuff up. I did read some of the stuff and that I agree with his analysis, I will read more in the coming days.
i realize most people may not be able to replicate a thread of this detail, but what i mean to say is that we should try to put some thought before starting a new thread...
Hey Kim is the one where Chuck boo-booed defensively where he went for the steal and didn't recover fast enough or was that earlier? I don't have it saved on my DVR (malfunctions... darn thing) and I haven't downloaded it yet to rewatch those last minutes of the game.
