Not sure about about this one. I like his frame and abilities, and would take him if he could shoot a 3 pointer and play the SF position for us. But the problem with potential is that you haven't done anything yet. I don't think the guy could have the strength to play the 5 position, and he is probably a PF without the bulk to really be dominant. If we are going to gamble on a guy, I think DM has shown he can find steals in the draft and I would wonder how high our pick can be this year and the 2012 knicks pick, and if we could find a better player (who is less of a project, and has better odds of succeeding) that way. If he can play the 3 effectively and develops a 3pt shot, I would be very happy to have a guy like that. If not, then probably not considering the price.
So they want out of the obligation of the 2011 option to us and not to give their 2012 pick to us. In return, we want Randolph. Is that it?
I realize this doesn't necessarily scale in this manner, but consider Anthony Randolph's first 2 seasons compared to that of Kevin Garnett's and Dwight Howard: HTML: AR:<br> Points/48 Rebounds/48 Blocks/48 <br> 21.18435754 15.55307263 3.217877095<br> 24.52863436 13.74449339 3.383259912 <br><br> DH:<br> 17.66871166 14.72392638 2.503067485<br> 20.60869565 16.30434783 1.826086957<br><br> KG:<br> 17.39372822 10.53658537 2.675958188<br> 20.97686375 9.871465296 2.59125964 Not worth a first round pick?
I think they just want their 2012 pick back from us. I don't think they are looking to get out of the obligation of the 2011 swap which doesn't look like it will be useful to the Rockets anyways.
Yeah. Randolph for 2012 first rounder NYK, which may not be worth much. Well, I guess I am definitely not ok if it's our 2011 pick, but if it's the NYK pick, given it's a year away and possible late first round, I will do it for Randolph. Do we want to make NYK land Melo though? Maybe better than him going to a WC team. Also looks like we are out of the Melo trade/free agency at this point.
you're mixing up what both teams want/have/get. Last season we acquired the knicks 2012 pick AND the option to switch our 2011 with their 2011 this summer. That's set in stone now. Since you can't trade consecutive picks, this means the knicks can't trade their 2011 or 2013 (because their 2012 was trade to us) in order to get Melo, since Denver wants a 1st rounder. Therefore, it would be difficult to trade directly with denver based on what their current situation. That's where houston comes in....we can : - trade them back their 2012 so they'll have their 2011 and 2012 and can trade one to cenver - trade them our own 2011 so they'll have their 2011 and our 2011 and they can trade ours to denver.
I don't disagree, just would want to make sure you can't get something better beforehand. With a potential lockout upcoming, and a new CBA, shouldn't Shane's expiring, JJ's expiring, heck even Yao's expiring be all that more valuable - i.e turn into a Iguodala if you're also willing to take on Brand's contract. Not that I'm enamored with Iguodala, either, but just used that as an example. Maybe Gerald Wallace becomes available if you are willing to trade AB...who knows. And who knows what assets you might give up in a AR trade that would have been helpful to pick up one of those players. Then there continues to be the question of the value of the NY pick. Will it be early 20's, late 20's, late teens...and what type of talent will there be in that 2012 draft (if that's a pick in play). As much leverage as Melo has, he also can't really afford to not sign an extension this season, because if he doesn't, he's stuck with whatever the new CBA implies...perhaps NY finds another way to get a pick back, but maybe not, and Melo ends up on the Nets, with extension signed, and the Knicks don't improve much and you have a late teens pick in a deep draft, IN ADDITION to what is potential an even better pick of your own - again, trade assets. Sorry to take a super long-term approach to this, but I am now firmly in the camp that we're teetering on rebuild, and probably there. Morey, for all his talent evaluation, has completely forgot about one side of the ball (defense, not surprising, since "advanced stats" often minimize defensive contribution; great, Kevin Martin is a solid scoring two guard who gets to the FT line a lot and is efficient...he can't play a lick of defense - okay when you have a younger Battier, a healthy Yao and JVG as a coach, but not ok when paired with the current squad)...anyway, point being, the path to rebuild is fairly obvious to me....stockpile draft picks and use assets to get even more and/or higher draft picks, and get lucky. If you get enough draft picks and can turn them into KG and Ray Allen in the same offseason, you do that, but otherwise you draft smartly, and add smart talent around them; see Thunder, Bulls, Jazz, Hornets, Nuggets, Magic. Granted, there's also the Clippers and T-Wolves of the world, but that's where the smartly comes into play. Point being, I am wary of transactions that trade away draft picks. I'd rather trade assets to acquire first round draft picks in 2011-2013. I'd be okay trading away a pick for Randolph, but only if something more came with it, especially if in so doing you basically allow the Knicks to accomplish what they've sought (i.e. - if you hold a ton of leverage). I see Randolph's athleticism, skill and talent. I hold out hope he can grow into a Lamar Odom championship role player. But right now it seems HIGHLY unlikely that, talent fulfilled or not, Randolph is ever a player that helps you win as opposed to a guy who just fills that stat sheet. just my two cents. if acquired, i'll certainly hope for the best.
JayZ, it seems like you're assuming or hoping that a teens draft pick would be better than Anthony Randolph. I think I would disagree with that premise or with the one that we could reasonable hope to land a star with a late teens/20s pick. I agree that we're teetering on rebuilding and it pushes me even further into the trade Randolph camp. I view it as a low risk, high reward. If he doesn't work out, we lost.. for argument's sake, the 20th pick in the draft. How many great players come out of that slot? How do we even know 2012 will be deep? We won't know if the draft is considered deep until 1.5 years from now when the early entry deadline approaches. It seems you're assuming that great college players will not enter the draft this year because of the possibility of the lockout. I'm leery of this because of the 2010 draft -- that was supposed to be deep as well because of how many players would enter early because of the feared lockout. Instead, a lot of the international players decided to withdraw and it watered down the draft. There is no guarantee of a deep draft, and especially there is no guarantee that the 20th pick in what is considered a deep draft would be more than a role player. Anthony Randolph is two years younger than Jordan Hill and completely blows him away on the skillset level. He's an elite shot blocker already, but the other parts of his game certainly need to mature more. That said, I'd be more than happy to take the roll of the dice that they will. If we're teetering on rebuilding, we shouldn't be looking at acquiring Iguodala/Brand or Wallace type players. Those guys will only keep us in the level of mediocrity -- being just good enough to avoid a high pick/lottery, but bad enough to never seriously be considered a threat to compete for a championship. Iguodala and Wallace are the type of players you surround a Kobe/Wade type player with.. and without one, I just don't see the point in looking to acquire them. In the end, I view Randolph has a low risk, high reward. If he even reaches 80% of his potential, you could flip him pretty darn easy for a top 10 pick. I think, from an asset standpoint, Anthony Randolph would be a lot more valuable than a draft pick of a team that's won 12 out of 13 and is the most likely destination for one of the elite players in the game.
We don't need a sure pick. We need a franchise player, and the only way to get that type of player is by getting lucky in the draft. Playing it safe has gotten is nowhere. Trade the vets for future picks, tank, and hope we get lucky in the lottery.
So you'd probably give up $100,000 for a 1% chance at winning a million, huh? We're not playing it safe by not doing anything or waiting. We're still making a move and in a good direction. A move to acquire a unique talent with abilities we lack. That's improving the team. We can't get higher than 5 next year. the chances of a franchise player being in any draft arent that high to being with, much lower outside of 5, almost impossible lately. In 2011 we're not likely to end up very high either.
I think your analysis is good; I'm just wary that even at his best Randolph is maybe Zach Randolph like. Pretty hit bar statistically actually, but in terms of having a "real" impact - wins and losses - not extremely useful. I wouldn't give up that pick for Zach and he's clearly the better talent. Somewhat odd comparison but Im thinking about Detroit picking up Ben Gordon and Charlie V - solid players, good stats but ridiculous to think that would help the team win. Again, I'm not against the idea - your points are all valid, but if a 20s pick is the difference when added to your own pick to let you move up a few spots to get what you consider to be a Brandon Roy type player, it sure would suck to not have that pick because you have Anthony Randolph instead. I just don't see how he helps you win.
Remember when randolph was still playing for the warriors and in one game that they played us, he dunked on yao then got T'd up screaming in yao's face? Then yao came back down the court and dunked on him and calmly ran back the other way? That moment made me really dislike randolph so no, i would not like this guy on our team
So you don't want a young player with great potential because in the midst of a close competitive game he yelled at Yao. Great logic.......
I'd do it. <object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/GCQ5idKojNQ?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/GCQ5idKojNQ?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>
