Yeah, I don't know if Scola in getting in foul trouble in the Euroleague is that big a deal. Remember, Tim Duncan had a tough time staying on the court in the international play as well.
Well, the thing is that Duncan played only a couple of FIBA matches... and after that said (and I quote) "FIBA SU%#S" and that he will never play again. And Scola has played his whole life in FIBA basketball. As another poster said today, he gets in fould trouble because of being overly enthusiastic in defense, and can't avoid body contact. But I think he will do a decent job in defense when he adapts to the NBA.
Well, I think the trade is a very good one for the Rox. Scola is a player that can play, and with JVG out, certainly will, even if he needs more adapting than the average fan thinks. He's a huge prospect. I don't think the Spurs really thought of the possible implications this move might have. He might need some time, but I always believed the best fit players to play are Argentinians, cause the game their accustomed to is more physical, much like in the NBA. The Spanish league is also like that, which is why you see players that played for Spanish teams being successful. As Spanoulis, I have to say he disgraces Greece with his attitude. I thought much more of him before his announcement, but NBA is clearly not the place for a wuss, so good riddance, especially saying you'll not even play for the champions which would, if anything improve his game. Every top players' dream is the NBA, I guess he understands he's not as good as would be needed. Granted, JVG was the worst he could have as a starter coach and Popovich doesn't like rookies that much either, but still. It's the second player that leaves the NBA in such a fashion(Fotsis the first). What's worse is that with Papaloukas re-signing with CSKA Moscow instead offers of NBA teams, and several prospects never making the move, we're becoming an unstable choice for the future, I wouldn't get any future player prospect from Greece with such attitude and that will only damage our young talent, since the NBA is the only way we can improve our talent in the long run. For the record, Greece, IS such a great country, but an athletes priorities can't be that of his residence or his mom. If your mom owns your balls, NBA is clearly not for you. Best for Scola and the team this coming year. I expected more this past season, but reason No1 for not delivering, IMO, JVG, who exhausted the players with too many playing minutes is finally out. I expect the team to go at least final 4 this one. If not, the need for a proper PG will be more than obvious since that's the only tweak that really has to be worked out, again IMO.
I did the complete Hollinger numbers on Spanoulis based on 40 minutes of PT (the SAME stats everyone is using to tout Scola). I stress that the EXACT SAME stats. And for everyone who argues, "he didn't do jack in NBA." I give you this again, Kelly Dywer: "Off the top of my head, Hollinger's translated stats have been pretty much spot on for Nocioni, Oberto, Udrih, Varejao, and some others I can't remember. The ones that are off are the guys that don't get consistent (even 12 mpg) playing time to have the sample size count, like Maceo Baston in Indiana. Alston versus Spanoulis Hollinger stats = Spanoulis per 40 minutes (as a ROOKIE): 40.0 MPG 13.3 PPG (Alston = 14.3) 3.1 RPG (Alston = 3.7) 6.2 APG (Alston = 5.8) 42.7% FG% (Alston = 37.5%) 32.2% 3PT% (Alston = 36.3%) 78.0% FT% (Alston = 73.4%) 0.4 BPG (Alston = 0.1) 1.6 SPG (Alston = 1.7) 4.0 TOPG (Alston = 2.3) Alston per 40 minutes (as a NINTH YEAR PLAYER): 40.0 MPG 14.3 PPG (Spanoulis = 13.3) 3.7 RPG (Spanoulis = 3.1) 5.8 APG (Spanoulis = 6.2) 37.5% FG% (Spanoulis = 42.7%) 36.3% 3PT% (Spanoulis = 32.2%) 73.4% FT% (Spanoulis = 78.0%) 0.1 BPG (Spanoulis = 0.4) 1.7 SPG (Spanoulis = 1.6) 2.3 TOPG (Spanoulis = 4.0) Spanoulis is better at 4 categories and Alston is better at 5 categories. Basically in reality, Alston is better at ONLY 3 point shooting and turnovers, Spanoulis is better or equal at all other facets of the game. Alston = NINTH YEAR player, Spanoulis = ROOKIE. Alston = 6 years OLDER than Spanoulis. I think it is pretty clear that Spanoulis IS a superior prospect and talent to Rafer Alston and does have the potential to be a top 15 NBA point guard. I mean 6 years younger than Alston, 8 years less of NBA experience, and already as good or better at every facet of the game other than 3 point shooting and turnovers. It is also historically known that ALL Euro players took a year to adjust to the NBA 3 point line. People don't think Spanoulis in 6 years would develop as good an outside shot as Alston and his freaking 36%? It just seems that Rockets fans don't get it, Alston is a top 20-25 NBA point guard and Spanoulis IS more talented than him regardless of what Rockets fans skewed opinion on him is.
Haven't you learned your lesson already? http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/spanova01.html THESE are the stats you should be looking at concerning Spanoulis. He HAS played in the NBA, and he's played VERY POORLY. Using Hollinger's projection is USELESS when there actually exists data. It's a sign of desperation that you are forced to resort to previous projections. Actual data ALWAYS trumps projections, in ANY social science. If say the GDP this quarter didn't match the projections, economists don't go back and use the projection, they use the ACTUAL DATA. "He didn't get consistent PT." Well, there's a reason for that, he SUCKS. Coaches on winning teams do not give PT to crappy players, because the priority is on... well, WINNING, as opposed to some nebulous concept of "developing young players" a.k.a. glorified tanking. It only makes sense to use a projection where there doesn't exist actual data. When there does exist such data, it ALWAYS trumps the projection.
There is a difference between a PG tried to learn the NBA game and a big man trying to learn the NBA game. It should be easier, in theory, for a big man to adjust to the NBA game.
Welcome scola! It's always nice to have new fans, especially ones that can give us info on new players!
I think another wild card in this trade is picking up the 6-10, 260 pound Jackie Butler who is, I believe, only 22 and has a ton of talent and size.
There's also a difference between a guy who wants to play against the top talent and one who wants to take his ball and go home because he gets homesick. Unless Hollinger factored that in, using his projections are worthless.
Here's what I think about the trade from Moneyball: Scola's projected NBA rookie Hollinger numbers based on 40 minutes of playing time (I did the complete calculation): These are the COMPLETE Hollinger rookie projection numbers translations, never before posted on this forum for Spanoulis and Scola. For comparisons sakes I compared them to Rafer Alston and Chuck Hayes. I hope this gives a good comparison for Rockets fans. Now keep in mind that according to Kelly Dywer: "Off the top of my head, Hollinger's translated stats have been pretty much spot on for Nocioni, Oberto, Udrih, Varejao, and some others I can't remember. The ones that are off are the guys that don't get consistent (even 12 mpg) playing time to have the sample size count, like Maceo Baston in Indiana. Luis Scola rookie Hollinger projected stats per 40 minutes: 18 points 10 rebounds 4 assists 1 block 2 steals 0.00% 3PT 51% FG 72% FT Chuck Hayes Hollinger stats: 40.0 MPG 10.2 PPG 12.2 RPG 1.1 APG 57.3% FG% 0.00% 3PT% 61.8% FT% 0.4 BPG 1.6 SPG 1.5 TOPG Vassilis Spanoulis rookie Hollinger projected stats per 40 minutes: 40.0 MPG 13.3 PPG 3.1 RPG 6.2 APG 42.7% FG% 32.2% 3PT% 78.0% FT% 0.4 BPG 1.6 SPG 4.0 TOPG Rafer Alston Hollinger stats: 40.0 MPG 14.3 PPG 3.7 RPG 5.8 APG 37.5% FG% 36.3% 3PT% 73.4% FT% 0.1 BPG 1.7 SPG 2.3 TOPG So basically, Morey traded a 13 point 6 assist 3 rebound point guard in Spanoulis, cash, and a 2nd rounder for a young big man in Butler and an 18 point 10 rebound 4 assist power forward in Scola. According to Moneyball this is a very good trade by Morey. BTW, SmitingPurpleEm if you are actually arguing against Spanoulis being more talented than Alston why don't you check out the SAME site you gave me: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/alstora01.html Rafer Alstron's FIRST 3 YEARS: rookie year = Games 27 MPG 13.4 2.2 PPG 2.6 APG 0.9 RPG 2nd year = Games 37 MPG 7.8 2.1 PPG 1.8 APG 0.8 RPG 3rd year = Games 50 MPG 12.0 3.5 PPG 2.9 APG 1.4 RPG Yeah great argument there for such limited playing time. Looks like Alston owned 3 years of major suckage because of no PT and yet he's "more talented" and "better" than Spanoulis. Get real. Again, you haven't. Kelly Dywer: "Off the top of my head, Hollinger's translated stats have been pretty much spot on for Nocioni, Oberto, Udrih, Varejao, and some others I can't remember. The ones that are off are the guys that don't get consistent (even 12 mpg) playing time to have the sample size count, like Maceo Baston in Indiana.
Butler is only 22 years old. I wouldn't call him a stiff yet, especially since he has been improving.
Bringing up Rafer's rookie numbers is pointless and basically a straw man. We're not getting Rafer as a rookie, we're getting him as a 9 year veteran. If you want to draw a comparison, then the comparison is that Alston, unlike Spanoulis, persevered through trying times (And-1 tour, NBDL) to find a place in the NBA and is now a decent PG. I don't care if the projection worked for Varejao or Nocioni, those aren't our players. Spanoulis was, and the model failed for him. Therefore, insisting on using the projection is fallacious and a sign of desperation. Just because a model works for one guy, doesn't mean it has to work for everyone. The same problem arises when trying to use the same models for economic growth in different countries. Besides Kelly Dwyer is not right all the time; he proclaimed Steve Blake to be the worst player in the NBA, well he did just fine in Denver, didn't he? Nor is Hollinger right all the time; I remember last year on his projection of players he had CHUCK HAYES in the top 30 in the NBA. Anyway, you might judge talent in two ways, by eye or by numbers. If you judge by the former, then Alston wins clearly, because Alston can actually play in the NBA while Spanoulis can't. If you judge it by ACTUAL DATA, which ALWAYS SUPERSEDES PROJECTIONS, then Alston has superior numbers. Either way Alston is a better player. Repeatedly putting up the same quote by Dwyer is silly when I keep debunking it and you refuse to respond. You can't win debates that way. I suppose that makes 2 things you don't actually know how to do; the other one being properly interpreting data.
I posted this in another thread. Here is what I am getting based on these stats. I am projecting Scola to be around (slightly) better than Chris Wilcox. Scola would = 17.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG and 4.3 APG in 40.0 minutes per game. Let's say Chuck Hayes playes 18 minutes per game, that leaves 30 minutes for Scola at PF. 17.9 PPG in 40 minutes = 13.4 PPG in 30 minutes That is why I posted the Dwyer quote and Spanoulis per 40 based on the same Hollinger stats. The amount of PT is crucial, it must be over 12 to get a true reading and it must be then re-calibrated based on actual PT versus 40 minutes of PT. Therefore, if we assume 30/18 minute rotation at PF with Scola and Hayes, the Hollinger projection for Scola is 13.4 PPG 7.7 RPG and 3.2 APG. In other words, the CLOSEST Moneyball comparsion is CHRIS WILCOX, however at about half the cost. Again this is pure Moneyball, Morey could acquire Wilcox for twice as much money and Battier, or he could acquire Scola for half the money and Spanoulis, and pick up a 3rd string C to boot. Pure Moneyball. And yes based on stats I get Chris Wilcox as the closest statistical comparison to Scola, so this should give some idea. Please people try to understand the stats. It seems no matter how much info or how in depth you go people still just completely ignore what you are posting the stats to actually MEAN. Just to further show this, based on the Moneyball stats I project Spanoulis to be the closest stats comparison to Aaron McKey in his prime, but unless he would get the same PT he couldn't naturally put up those numbers and anything under at least 12 MPG is skewed and off. These are indeed projections, but let's use common sense here, Scola should get about 30 minutes of PT, therefore based on Moneyball stats I conclude a Chris Wilcox type of quality player at PF.
It's only a straw man because you and SamFisher are using the same straw man. Saying Spanoulis proved he had no NBA talent based on 271 minutes of garbage time and sporadic play and being pulled whenever. My point wasn't using a straw man argument against you, it was to show you that anyone can use a weak straw man and as you put it "pointless" argument, but I guess you miss the obvious. Why is your straw man argument right, but another straw man argument of the same exact mold that counters your own straw man opinion is of course wrong? But again, you and SamFisher seem to think that 31 games played, 8.7 MPG and 51 DNPCD's was a true sample size. Yeah sure Kelly is wrong at times, we all are, but in this case it isn't Kelly that is wrong. I cannot honestly believe anyone could consider themselves a knowledgeable BBall fan and actually think that the above is a true sample size for Spanoulis and that 57 games played at 28.8 minutes against the 2nd highest league in the world "does not count." Seriously, you guys actually think you are winning this argument, it's just..............
